Wave in Caribbean Sea

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cycloneye
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Wave in Caribbean Sea

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2007 7:56 am

Image

You can see very easy the clouds forming a V indicating a good signature.However it doesn't mean it will develop but for sure apart from the 93L wave,it's a good wave.But the hostil enviroment in the tropical atlantic will prevent it from going more strong.Here in Puerto Rico the NWS expects plenty of rain as it passes by next wednesday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

8:05 AM Discussion from TPC. :uarrow:

San Juan AFD: :darrow:

FXCA62 TJSJ 160950
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SAT JUN 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
INTERRUPTED BY A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST...CROSSING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SUNDAY MORNING AND PUERTO RICO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FROM FLORIDA TO WESTERN AFRICA
BY MONDAY. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TO NEAR 20 NORTH ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN SHIFTS NORTH AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26 NORTH. ANOTHER HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TUESDAY
AND THEN THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO BEGINNING WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST...REBUILDS AND DRIFTS BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND HOLDING FLOW SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD AFTER THE WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY NEAR ONE
AND ONE HALF INCHES AS DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST CONTINUES ONE MORE
DAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE WORST OF THE HAZE IS
OVER...EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL DUST TO REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW.

ON SUNDAY...SOME MOISTURE RETURNS...AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BUT THE REALLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR PUERTO RICO. THE GFS
SHOWS HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER OF OVER 2.3 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

THE GFS WINDS IN THE LAYER FROM 1000-850 MB PEAK ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z AT 30 KNOTS OVER SAINT THOMAS AND 35 KNOTS OVER SAINT CROIX
WITH ABRUPT TURNING OVER THE 12 HOURS CENTERED ON THAT TIME FROM
100 DEGREES TO 140 DEGREES. WINDS IN THIS LAYER OVER PUERTO RICO
PEAK AT 40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AT 06Z. WINDS AT 850 MB ONLY ARE
SIMILAR EXCEPT THAT THEY PEAK OVER ARECIBO AT 50 KNOTS THURSDAY AT
06Z IN THE 00Z/16 RUN OF THE GFS. THESE WINDS ARE REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE IN THE MODEL AS WELL...WITH A MAXIMUM WIND OF 34 KNOTS
OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE
THIS IS STILL IN DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND DUE TO THE MODEL
PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE WIND SPEEDS AND THE WAVE INTENSITY IN
GENERAL...THE WINDS WERE LOWERED BY 7 KNOTS IN THE HIGHER FORECAST
AREAS DURING THE WAVE APPROACH AND PASSAGE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR 33 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...IS
MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS AND IT HAS A CLASSICAL INVERTED V SHAPE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED IF IT CAN HOLD
TOGETHER SO WELL DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
WHICH SO FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY HOSTILE TO GOOD WAVES COMING OFF OF
AFRICA. ALSO THE GFS SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER IT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS ALSO SUSPECT. THEREFORE WILL MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AT 70 PERCENT OR
LESS WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF THE MODEL FORECAST. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...WILL ENHANCE OR DIMINISH THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
THE DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE WAVE CONTINUES UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
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#2 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:12 am

Good to see you around Luis...
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:25 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Good to see you around Luis...


Thank you.Any comments about this inverted-V type wave?
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#4 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:29 am

The wave is interesting like a few that have moved of the african coast over the past couple weeks but significant organization is very unlikely for a couple more weeks.Adrian

Alot of dry air over the area.
Last edited by windstorm99 on Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:33 am

Looks like our 1st wave at this laditude to make it across..Hopefully ita a rain maker for all those that need it.
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#6 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:40 am

I just wonder if the SAL is going to start creeping north of 20 degrees by August and start enabling these suckers to make it all the way across the Atlantic. I do not like the set up for the peak of the season that appears to be coming into place..... :eek:
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:51 am

Image

The wave has to contend with the dry air that is in the Tropical Atlantic.If it survives that hostile threk,then it can be a player down the road.
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#8 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Jun 16, 2007 11:39 am

GFS showing some vorticity with this wave down the road, heading into the Caribbean. We'll have to watch it...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2007 1:10 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 37W-44W.
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inverted v

#10 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Jun 16, 2007 4:11 pm

luis, altho the 805am TWD is no longer available to link....it expressed interest in this wave, as "the first wave that the gfs has hung onto", referring to across the atlantic and into the caribbean...of course, this is the gfs with all its foibles...rich
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#11 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jun 16, 2007 5:38 pm

The hurricane season is maturing. SST's are plenty warm in the Caribbean and if nothing else these early African waves are lifting moisture and paving the way for future development. Nice graphic support!
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#12 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jun 16, 2007 5:53 pm

It looks even more impressive this evening than this morning... I normally have trouble picking out that inverted v-shape, but not this time. Let's see if it survives the dry air in the eastern Caribbean.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2007 7:11 pm

AXNT20 KNHC 170005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS FAIRLY EASY TO LOCATE WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N
BETWEEN 35W-45W.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

Nothing new from the previous discussions on saturday from TPC.In other words,it still has the inverted-V shape type formation.
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#14 Postby abajan » Sat Jun 16, 2007 7:25 pm

Swimdude wrote:It looks even more impressive this evening than this morning... I normally have trouble picking out that inverted v-shape, but not this time. Let's see if it survives the dry air in the eastern Caribbean.

Me too... Similar to doctors detecting abnormalities in x-rays that laymen can't see, I guess. But as you stated, that inverted V is clear to see this time.
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#15 Postby StormScanWx » Sat Jun 16, 2007 7:50 pm

Sorry, I don't see it, can someone point this out?

Thanks,
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2007 8:26 pm

StormScanWx wrote:Sorry, I don't see it, can someone point this out?

Thanks,


Image

This pic was from early Saturday afternoon,and as you can see it's evident the inverted-V type shape of the wave.As I know about it,it's a ondulation that consist of winds from different directions,but I know that more expert pro mets than me can elaborate more on what a inverted-V shape wave is.

Note about words in Spanish at graphic=Onda Tropical is Tropical Wave.
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#17 Postby abajan » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:07 pm

Oops... seems like I was looking at the wrong inverted V! (I thought it was that stuff just east of the Lesser Antilles.)
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Weatherfreak000

#18 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:19 pm

I am indeed highly interested with this surprising mass of moisture we're seeing.


Something interesting to look at for Mid-June for sure.
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#19 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:57 pm

It will be interesting when it approaches the eastern Caribbean, as upper level conditions could become better along with the approaching strong tropical wave.
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Re: Inverted-V signature of Atlantic Wave

#20 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jun 17, 2007 10:33 am

Abajan wrote:

Oops... seems like I was looking at the wrong inverted V! (I thought it was that stuff just east of the Lesser Antilles.)


The first wave is lifting moisture the later waves have a better chance of developing.
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