Relative to June 25-Wave in Central Atlantic Looks Very Good

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is the wave that some of you guys noted coming off the African Coast a couple of days ago. Convection has increased some in the last few hours, and I'm beginning to give this wave a chance. Now it has to remain on a little bit more of a southerly course, because their is a trough guarding the E Carib. But if it can remain south of say 13N upon nearing the Carib (and I think it will), then its got a chance. Here's what it looks like this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html" target="_blank" target="_blank

['CaneFreak]

nope, these are too far south for this time of year....these waves are headed for South America...if they are south of 10 N this time of year....they will never climb above 10 N because they are caught up in the ITCZ flow...I give it about a 0.1 % chance to come north and a 99.9 % chance of stay south of 10 N

[wxman57]

Doesn't look too "Goo" to me.

[Berwick Bay]

Canefreak, I'm sure you're right about the ITCZ Flow. Here's your quote.
nope, these are too far south for this time of year....these waves are headed for South America...if they are south of 10 N this time of year....they will never climb above 10 N because they are caught up in the ITCZ flow...I give it about a 0.1 % chance to come north and a 99.9 % chance of stay south of 10 N

But I think this thing might have a chance at some further organization while still in the open Atlantic. If, and its a big if, further organization does occur, then I think would see the system enter the Carib at about 12N. Taking a shot.

[Cyclone1]

Ehhh... I'm not writing it off.

[alan1961]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is the wave that some of you guys noted coming off the African Coast a couple of days ago. Convection has increased some in the last few hours, and I'm beginning to give this wave a chance. Now it has to remain on a little bit more of a southerly course, because their is a trough guarding the E Carib. But if it can remain south of say 13N upon nearing the Carib (and I think it will), then its got a chance. Here's what it looks like this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html" target="_blank

Wish i could share your optimism Berwick on this wave but looks like it will go like all the others so far, the high to the north is pushing everything south, until that eases off to the north a little i can't see anything having much of a chance of developing

[windstorm99]

To close to the equater in my opinion for any development to take place and will run into land very soon.

[vacanechaser]

If you continue to go goo-goo for every little collection of shifted winds or thunderstorms. You will lose whatever credibility you have left-from those who gave you some-for the Barry call.

Unless he's right.

dont count on it... way to far south... it is still june... it aint happening...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is the wave that some of you guys noted coming off the African Coast a couple of days ago. Convection has increased some in the last few hours, and I'm beginning to give this wave a chance. Now it has to remain on a little bit more of a southerly course, because their is a trough guarding the E Carib. But if it can remain south of say 13N upon nearing the Carib (and I think it will), then its got a chance. Here's what it looks like this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html" target="_blank

first of all its not even the same wave that came of africa the other day.. and second its not really wave at all its more ITCZ convection!!

[vbhoutex]

This topic has been cleaned up by me. If it strays from the original topic again, there will be warnings and/or suspensions handed out.

If someone has a problem with a member and how they are posting DO NOT post about it on the open board, bring it to a staff member.

Now, please feel free to discuss this topic further.

[vbhoutex]

I do not see the convection, at least concentrated, that is needed for survival of this system. I also, agree that it is too far south and that it is too early in the season to give it any chance at all. Not that waves this far south haven't survived, but it is rare, especially this early in the season.

[SouthFloridawx]

I agree with 'Canefreak...

But, I'm smiling a little bit knowing that wave in the far eastern Caribbean is going to bring our chances of rain up in florida in a few days...





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The local met on abcactionnews said that this wave
once it gets into the GOM after crossing
florida may need to be "watched for development"
but that nothing was imminent...so there is a
chance for this thing to develop in the GOM.
Why?
Let me add my own reasonings:
1. The Sea Surface Temperatures support explosive development
2. The wave itself will pull substantial moisture into the Gulf of Mexico
3. Shear will be decreasing over the GOM
as a strong Bermuda Ridge builds in over the eastern
Atlantic shunting the shear producing tropical jet to
the north.

[Cyclone1]

The local met on abcactionnews said that this wave
once it gets into the GOM after crossing
florida may need to be "watched for development"
but that nothing was imminent...so there is a
chance for this thing to develop in the GOM.
Why?
Let me add my own reasonings:
1. The Sea Surface Temperatures support explosive development
2. The wave itself will pull substantial moisture into the Gulf of Mexico
3. Shear will be decreasing over the GOM
as a strong Bermuda Ridge builds in over the eastern
Atlantic shunting the shear producing tropical jet to
the north.

What wave? The wave over Puerto Rico?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think the one near the bahamas

[windstorm99]

Overall the atlantic basin has enormous pockets of extremely dry air, troughiness in most areas, shear, ULLs which add up to no worries across the atlantic basin for a while.Adrian

['CaneFreak]

The local met on abcactionnews said that this wave
once it gets into the GOM after crossing
florida may need to be "watched for development"
but that nothing was imminent...so there is a
chance for this thing to develop in the GOM.
Why?
Let me add my own reasonings:
1. The Sea Surface Temperatures support explosive development
2. The wave itself will pull substantial moisture into the Gulf of Mexico
3. Shear will be decreasing over the GOM
as a strong Bermuda Ridge builds in over the eastern
Atlantic shunting the shear producing tropical jet to
the north.

I am going to have to disagree with this statement for a few reasons:

1) The temperature of the Ocean has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...warm ssts increase this chance somewhat but as I have said MUCHAS VECES (many times) SSTS DO NOT DICTATE INTENSITY....THCP DICTATES INTENSITY...I am not going to say this again....DID CHARLEY EXPLODE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO HIGH SSTS? NO!!!!!! It exploded due to the THCP values over 100 kJ/cm squared water...not the 85 degree SSTS..you can have 90 degree water but if the THCP is low....THERE WILL BE NO EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERIOD!!!!!!!!! THCP is like octane fuel to a monster engine...it loves this octane....
2) The shear in the East Atlantic has nothing to do with what the shear may be like further on down the road the further west you go...it just has ABSOLUTELY NO CORRELATION!!! So, there is no way of knowing just by looking at the shear maps for the eastern Atlantic...Sorry but it just doesn't...And a bermuda high does not necessarily mean that the shear will be lower in any particular part of the atlantic. For example, we can have a stationary Bermuda high with 50 TUTTs all over the Atlantic Basin and environmental conditions still will not be favorable in the vicinity of these TUTTs.
3) A TROPICAL WAVE CAN NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF BASED ON ITS OWN MOISTURE...if a tropical wave can survive on the moisture it carries with itself, the death of many tropical waves would not have happened and I would not be here typing this post. If the environment in which a tropical wave is moving is drier than the environment in which the tropical wave is in at that current moment, then there will be no development from that particular wave in the direction it is moving. I hope you learned a lot from this post.

[wzrgirl1]

what is THCP please?

[x-y-no]

what is THCP please?

Don't know about THCP ... but TCHP is Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential - a measure of the heat available in the surface layers of the ocean.

[wzrgirl1]

what is THCP please?

Don't know about THCP ... but TCHP is Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential - a measure of the heat available in the surface layers of the ocean.

thanks....he wrote thcp also that's why i asked like that.........thanks though