Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The local met on abcactionnews said that this wave
once it gets into the GOM after crossing
florida may need to be "watched for development"
but that nothing was imminent...so there is a
chance for this thing to develop in the GOM.
Why?
Let me add my own reasonings:
1. The Sea Surface Temperatures support explosive development
2. The wave itself will pull substantial moisture into the Gulf of Mexico
3. Shear will be decreasing over the GOM
as a strong Bermuda Ridge builds in over the eastern
Atlantic shunting the shear producing tropical jet to
the north.
I am going to have to disagree with this statement for a few reasons:
1) The temperature of the Ocean has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...warm ssts increase this chance somewhat but as I have said MUCHAS VECES (many times) SSTS DO NOT DICTATE INTENSITY....THCP DICTATES INTENSITY...I am not going to say this again....DID CHARLEY EXPLODE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO HIGH SSTS? NO!!!!!! It exploded due to the THCP values over 100 kJ/cm squared water...not the 85 degree SSTS..you can have 90 degree water but if the THCP is low....THERE WILL BE NO EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERIOD!!!!!!!!! THCP is like octane fuel to a monster engine...it loves this octane....
2) The shear in the East Atlantic has nothing to do with what the shear may be like further on down the road the further west you go...it just has ABSOLUTELY NO CORRELATION!!! So, there is no way of knowing just by looking at the shear maps for the eastern Atlantic...Sorry but it just doesn't...And a bermuda high does not necessarily mean that the shear will be lower in any particular part of the atlantic. For example, we can have a stationary Bermuda high with 50 TUTTs all over the Atlantic Basin and environmental conditions still will not be favorable in the vicinity of these TUTTs.
3) A TROPICAL WAVE CAN NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF BASED ON ITS OWN MOISTURE...if a tropical wave can survive on the moisture it carries with itself, the death of many tropical waves would not have happened and I would not be here typing this post. If the environment in which a tropical wave is moving is drier than the environment in which the tropical wave is in at that current moment, then there will be no development from that particular wave in the direction it is moving. I hope you learned a lot from this post.
