Should see Large increase in Convection

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Aric Dunn
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Should see Large increase in Convection

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:18 pm

The tropical wave that is approaching PR should start to interact with that upper low that is moving west.. causing a large increase in convection tomorrow that will spread over the Se Bahamas and into Florida .. its interesting to note that the tropical wave has a pretty well defined wind shift .. I wonder if Florida will see more rain than forecast? although the shear is going to be quite strong initially. the latest gfs slightly decreases the shear on the east side of that upper low but not much either way depending how far west that upper low migrates west Florida should see some good rains from it.
don't know about anything developing but interesting none the less. everything should be watched ..

models dont pick up on anything . and actually the models are very typical and quiet right now.. but eventually something is going to give out.. the question is when and where ?? :)

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#2 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:30 pm

I'm not sure, but the rain over Florida right now is awesome! I just caught a funnel cloud (small tornado?) on tape (which is AWESOME, considering it's been my life dream since... well, birth.) Anyway, I'l be watching this area closely, maybe something will happen.
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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#3 Postby windstorm99 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:52 pm

Here's another view of the wave moving towards southflorida...

Basically through early evening tommorow we are going to be on the dry side of things before it gets kinda wet around here.Tropical waves are very unpredictable and good just easily fizzle out sometime tommorow or strengthen on its way here.

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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#4 Postby Jevo » Mon Jun 25, 2007 5:56 pm

Another reason the models may not be picking up on the increase in convection..... Cause theyre all at my place!!! Giggity Giggity....

Hahahaha kidding... seriouslth though the Miaim NWS has been picking up on the increased chance of rain from this feature since Friday... It will be interesting to see wether or not they were correct almost 5 days out..

Jevo

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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#5 Postby boca » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Since the ULL is in the Bahamas will that deflect the wave to move more poleward or northerly or punch right thru that upper level low? I bring this up because the flow around the eastern side of that ULL is southerly? Also the ULL is stationary.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html" target="_blank
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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#6 Postby ronjon » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:36 pm

boca wrote:Since the ULL is in the Bahamas will that deflect the wave to move more poleward or northerly or punch right thru that upper level low? I bring this up because the flow around the eastern side of that ULL is southerly? Also the ULL is stationary.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank


From NWS Miami Disc

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND MOVE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE PWAT TO BE AROUND 2
INCHES BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE CWA.
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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#7 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:38 pm

boca wrote:Since the ULL is in the Bahamas will that deflect the wave to move more poleward or northerly or punch right thru that upper level low? I bring this up because the flow around the eastern side of that ULL is southerly? Also the ULL is stationary.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank


its should not have any effect on the surface so the wave will continue west .. and yes the ull has slowed but the models take it west to about the keys .. it may be interesting to see what happens.. its about the most promising thing in the Atlantic.. which is pathetic to say the least .. i really don't think anything will happen tropically with it but i guess you never know
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#8 Postby boca » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:44 pm

We haven't had rain in a while other than a 5 minute hit and miss shower. I want wide spread rainfall. The lake is at 8.91ft right now. This tropical wave could really help us out or just fizzle out.
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Re:

#9 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:48 pm

boca wrote:We haven't had rain in a while other than a 5 minute hit and miss shower. I want wide spread rainfall. The lake is at 8.91ft right now. This tropical wave could really help us out or just fizzle out.

Yep I really thought we would get nailed today. It was threatening all afternoon........but it never materialized
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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#10 Postby ronjon » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:54 pm

Looks like the tropical wave between the leeward islands and PR will come crashing into the east side of the ULL. This should produce heavy convection with moisture added to lift from the ULL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html" target="_blank
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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2007 7:57 pm

ronjon wrote:Looks like the tropical wave between the leeward islands and PR will come crashing into the east side of the ULL. This should produce heavy convection with moisture added to lift from the ULL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html" target="_blank" target="_blank


ummm.. yeah ... is that not what i said when i started this thread?? "not to be mean or lashing out in anyway what so ever" (thats my disclaimer for now on since there has been so much blaming going on) :)
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#12 Postby boca » Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:03 pm

The tropical wave just east of PR should catch up to the convection north of Haiti. How they interact I don't know. but it should be interesting tomorrow the configuration of this mess.
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Re: Should see Large increase in Convection

#13 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:16 pm

Looking pretty convective to me...

:)

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#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:25 pm

your line is a little to far east .. its more towards PR .. but yeah close enough
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Re:

#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:your line is a little to far east .. its more towards PR .. but yeah close enough



Ehh... it was a pretty quick drawing on paint.
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:28 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:your line is a little to far east .. its more towards PR .. but yeah close enough



Ehh... it was a pretty quick drawing on paint.

i know how paint is .. lol
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#17 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:31 pm

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#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:34 pm

yep just about there ... although i was just looking at the PR radar .. the axis may be just about the middle of PR right now .. that image was 00z its almost 4 z now.. but either its in that area.. no need to be picky..
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