Ex Invest 95L

[ronjon]

The center appears to be northwest of the big lake about midway between Tampa and Melbourne. It is trucking off due west now at a pretty big clip. I'm not sure if it will make it to the GOM as the models forecast it to slow and spin for a while. There is a rather broad circulation with it.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=4" target="_blank

[CrazyC83]

Not much chance of development IMO. I think this is too close to land and too disorganized. TD3 will have to wait.

[wxman57]

Careful about using satellite to estimate a surface circulation. An analysis of surface obs across Florida indicates any weak low is southwest of Lake Okeechobee not northwest of the lake. Just a broad, very weak low inland. Forecast is for a gradual movement off to the NE, not NW.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ok 95L...if you don't want to develop that's fine.

All I want you to do is bring me some heavy
hard rain. This is one of the driest junes i have
ever experienced in my 15 years at florida
the only wet day was with Tropical Storm
Barry on the first of the month
the other days the rain was weak
and puny...

95L bring me some bounteous rains
Thy beauty is unparalled
Thy majesty is grand
Thy power is great
Thy moisture is rich
Let it rain upon my soul
And the soul of my garden...
Bring to life the dead grass
of my yard...
And unto thee Shall I and
my yard be forever grateful
95L thy potential is great in terms of rain
Let the precipitation fall in bounteous
Drops of Tropical Glory...
Bring the beauty of atmospheric
byproduct to thy surface...and bringeth
rain unto me...rain unto me...with
great devotion...power...and RAIN!!!

Bring on the rain

[Trader Ron]

Seems like the precip is moving Northeast.

[AnnularCane]

Not much chance of development IMO. I think this is too close to land and too disorganized. TD3 will have to wait.

And thus, TD3 sighs and heads back to the waiting room once again.

[Noah]

I'd say theres gonna be alot of heavy rain over central FL today

How, its not moving west.

[Noah]

Ok 95L...if you don't want to develop that's fine.

All I want you to do is bring me some heavy
hard rain. This is one of the driest junes i have
ever experienced in my 15 years at florida
the only wet day was with Tropical Storm
Barry on the first of the month
the other days the rain was weak
and puny...

95L bring me some bounteous rains
Thy beauty is unparalled
Thy majesty is grand
Thy power is great
Thy moisture is rich
Let it rain upon my soul
And the soul of my garden...
Bring to life the dead grass
of my yard...
And unto thee Shall I and
my yard be forever grateful
95L thy potential is great in terms of rain
Let the precipitation fall in bounteous
Drops of Tropical Glory...
Bring the beauty of atmospheric
byproduct to thy surface...and bringeth
rain unto me...rain unto me...with
great devotion...power...and RAIN!!!

Bring on the rain

Totally with you, I have stated that this is the driest I have ever seen my area in 20 years!

[cpdaman]

that's intresting (the dryness on the west coast) considering boca raton has had about a foot

sarasota /tampa didn't get and storms yesterday with that giant line that was along the west coast?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The giant line developed just to my west. Western saint pete
got rain...but my part of saint pete- eastern saint pete
we got nothing...

[caneman]

Ok 95L...if you don't want to develop that's fine.

All I want you to do is bring me some heavy
hard rain. This is one of the driest junes i have
ever experienced in my 15 years at florida
the only wet day was with Tropical Storm
Barry on the first of the month
the other days the rain was weak
and puny...

95L bring me some bounteous rains
Thy beauty is unparalled
Thy majesty is grand
Thy power is great
Thy moisture is rich
Let it rain upon my soul
And the soul of my garden...
Bring to life the dead grass
of my yard...
And unto thee Shall I and
my yard be forever grateful
95L thy potential is great in terms of rain
Let the precipitation fall in bounteous
Drops of Tropical Glory...
Bring the beauty of atmospheric
byproduct to thy surface...and bringeth
rain unto me...rain unto me...with
great devotion...power...and RAIN!!!

Bring on the rain

Totally with you, I have stated that this is the driest I have ever seen my area in 20 years!

I got a good rain here near the coast in Pinellas

[Cyclone1]

I'm just happy to have an INVEST to talk about.

[cpdaman]

guys thank for clearing that up for me, and i'm not so sure things will turn around next week either with a sw flow across the state

back to the low over s. florida it looks to me like it is moving slowly toward the coast on a ne/ene heading and is now located SE of the lake in SW PALM beach county.

at least this is what i get from radar and visible, winds are very light as you would think around this weak low

but i gotta tell you the dewpoint is 77 and there will probably be some big boomers later

[Noah]

that's intresting (the dryness on the west coast) considering boca raton has had about a foot

sarasota /tampa didn't get and storms yesterday with that giant line that was along the west coast?

Sarasota got about 15 minutes of a heavy rain.

Actually this thing looks to be moving east of the east coast, at least the convection does.
Looks like west coast might get more rain from a spread coming from the gulf, who knows.

[windstorm99]

12z CMC really intensifys this low and from the looks it if this pans out bermuda maybe looking at a hurricane coming there way.It may also be over doing on intensity but we'll see on future runs.

[Eyewall]

I'd say theres gonna be alot of heavy rain over central FL today

How, its not moving west.

uh just look at the radar..
everything moving to the west.. its gonna pile up on the west coast today

[Cyclone1]

NGP develops it too, but not as much.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not seeing this develop into anything. The conditions are just way too unfavorable.

[wxman57]

I'd say theres gonna be alot of heavy rain over central FL today

How, its not moving west.

uh just look at the radar..
everything moving to the west.. its gonna pile up on the west coast today

As I look at the WV loop, I can see a wave axis moving westward across FL. At 1745Z, it extends from near Jacksonville SSW to Punta Gorda. The wave is moving westward into the upper trof. Convection north of Lake Okeechobee is moving westward with the wave axis. However, as the wave tracks west toward the west coast of FL it's moving into a less favorable region for thunderstorm development. So it may be only spotty tstms for the central and northern peninsula today.

Down south of Lake Okeechobee, storms appear to be moving eastward, driven by strong mid and upper-level flow out of the west. These storms aren't quite as numerous as those north of the lake, but radar indicates that they're stronger. Could be some very heavy rain from Miami south to the northern Keys in the next few hours. Most of FL won't see too much rain, though. The disturbance will be pulling out to the northeast in the next 48 hours. Enjoy the rain while it's there.

[TampaFl]

Nice sat. loop of mid level low moving across Central Fl.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida