Ex Invest 95L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4831
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#41 Postby ronjon » Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:56 am

The center appears to be northwest of the big lake about midway between Tampa and Melbourne. It is trucking off due west now at a pretty big clip. I'm not sure if it will make it to the GOM as the models forecast it to slow and spin for a while. There is a rather broad circulation with it.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=4" target="_blank
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34009
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:11 am

Not much chance of development IMO. I think this is too close to land and too disorganized. TD3 will have to wait.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#43 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:12 am

Careful about using satellite to estimate a surface circulation. An analysis of surface obs across Florida indicates any weak low is southwest of Lake Okeechobee not northwest of the lake. Just a broad, very weak low inland. Forecast is for a gradual movement off to the NE, not NW.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#44 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:22 am

Ok 95L...if you don't want to develop that's fine.

All I want you to do is bring me some heavy
hard rain. This is one of the driest junes i have
ever experienced in my 15 years at florida
the only wet day was with Tropical Storm
Barry on the first of the month
the other days the rain was weak
and puny...

95L bring me some bounteous rains
Thy beauty is unparalled
Thy majesty is grand
Thy power is great
Thy moisture is rich
Let it rain upon my soul
And the soul of my garden...
Bring to life the dead grass
of my yard...
And unto thee Shall I and
my yard be forever grateful
95L thy potential is great in terms of rain
Let the precipitation fall in bounteous
Drops of Tropical Glory...
Bring the beauty of atmospheric
byproduct to thy surface...and bringeth
rain unto me...rain unto me...with
great devotion...power...and RAIN!!!

Bring on the rain
0 likes   

User avatar
Trader Ron
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
Location: Naples,Fl
Contact:

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#45 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:25 am

Seems like the precip is moving Northeast.
0 likes   

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2872
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re:

#46 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:25 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Not much chance of development IMO. I think this is too close to land and too disorganized. TD3 will have to wait.



And thus, TD3 sighs and heads back to the waiting room once again. :P
0 likes   

User avatar
Noah
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 541
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#47 Postby Noah » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:49 am

Eyewall wrote:I'd say theres gonna be alot of heavy rain over central FL today


How, its not moving west.
0 likes   

User avatar
Noah
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 541
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#48 Postby Noah » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:51 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Ok 95L...if you don't want to develop that's fine.

All I want you to do is bring me some heavy
hard rain. This is one of the driest junes i have
ever experienced in my 15 years at florida
the only wet day was with Tropical Storm
Barry on the first of the month
the other days the rain was weak
and puny...

95L bring me some bounteous rains
Thy beauty is unparalled
Thy majesty is grand
Thy power is great
Thy moisture is rich
Let it rain upon my soul
And the soul of my garden...
Bring to life the dead grass
of my yard...
And unto thee Shall I and
my yard be forever grateful
95L thy potential is great in terms of rain
Let the precipitation fall in bounteous
Drops of Tropical Glory...
Bring the beauty of atmospheric
byproduct to thy surface...and bringeth
rain unto me...rain unto me...with
great devotion...power...and RAIN!!!

Bring on the rain


Totally with you, I have stated that this is the driest I have ever seen my area in 20 years!
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#49 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:58 am

that's intresting (the dryness on the west coast) considering boca raton has had about a foot

sarasota /tampa didn't get and storms yesterday with that giant line that was along the west coast?
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#50 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:00 pm

The giant line developed just to my west. Western saint pete
got rain...but my part of saint pete- eastern saint pete
we got nothing...
0 likes   

caneman

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#51 Postby caneman » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:01 pm

Noah wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Ok 95L...if you don't want to develop that's fine.

All I want you to do is bring me some heavy
hard rain. This is one of the driest junes i have
ever experienced in my 15 years at florida
the only wet day was with Tropical Storm
Barry on the first of the month
the other days the rain was weak
and puny...

95L bring me some bounteous rains
Thy beauty is unparalled
Thy majesty is grand
Thy power is great
Thy moisture is rich
Let it rain upon my soul
And the soul of my garden...
Bring to life the dead grass
of my yard...
And unto thee Shall I and
my yard be forever grateful
95L thy potential is great in terms of rain
Let the precipitation fall in bounteous
Drops of Tropical Glory...
Bring the beauty of atmospheric
byproduct to thy surface...and bringeth
rain unto me...rain unto me...with
great devotion...power...and RAIN!!!

Bring on the rain


Totally with you, I have stated that this is the driest I have ever seen my area in 20 years!


I got a good rain here near the coast in Pinellas
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#52 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:22 pm

I'm just happy to have an INVEST to talk about.
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#53 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:23 pm

guys thank for clearing that up for me, and i'm not so sure things will turn around next week either with a sw flow across the state

back to the low over s. florida it looks to me like it is moving slowly toward the coast on a ne/ene heading and is now located SE of the lake in SW PALM beach county.

at least this is what i get from radar and visible, winds are very light as you would think around this weak low

but i gotta tell you the dewpoint is 77 and there will probably be some big boomers later
0 likes   

User avatar
Noah
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 541
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:41 am
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#54 Postby Noah » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:28 pm

cpdaman wrote:that's intresting (the dryness on the west coast) considering boca raton has had about a foot

sarasota /tampa didn't get and storms yesterday with that giant line that was along the west coast?


Sarasota got about 15 minutes of a heavy rain.

Actually this thing looks to be moving east of the east coast, at least the convection does.
Looks like west coast might get more rain from a spread coming from the gulf, who knows.
0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#55 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:39 pm

12z CMC really intensifys this low and from the looks it if this pans out bermuda maybe looking at a hurricane coming there way.It may also be over doing on intensity but we'll see on future runs.

Image
0 likes   

Eyewall

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#56 Postby Eyewall » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:41 pm

Noah wrote:
Eyewall wrote:I'd say theres gonna be alot of heavy rain over central FL today


How, its not moving west.


uh just look at the radar..
everything moving to the west.. its gonna pile up on the west coast today
0 likes   

Cyclone1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2739
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:03 pm
Location: Florida

#57 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:42 pm

NGP develops it too, but not as much.
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#58 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:54 pm

I'm not seeing this develop into anything. The conditions are just way too unfavorable.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#59 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:56 pm

Eyewall wrote:
Noah wrote:
Eyewall wrote:I'd say theres gonna be alot of heavy rain over central FL today


How, its not moving west.


uh just look at the radar..
everything moving to the west.. its gonna pile up on the west coast today


As I look at the WV loop, I can see a wave axis moving westward across FL. At 1745Z, it extends from near Jacksonville SSW to Punta Gorda. The wave is moving westward into the upper trof. Convection north of Lake Okeechobee is moving westward with the wave axis. However, as the wave tracks west toward the west coast of FL it's moving into a less favorable region for thunderstorm development. So it may be only spotty tstms for the central and northern peninsula today.

Down south of Lake Okeechobee, storms appear to be moving eastward, driven by strong mid and upper-level flow out of the west. These storms aren't quite as numerous as those north of the lake, but radar indicates that they're stronger. Could be some very heavy rain from Miami south to the northern Keys in the next few hours. Most of FL won't see too much rain, though. The disturbance will be pulling out to the northeast in the next 48 hours. Enjoy the rain while it's there.
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

Re: 95L Invest near Florida,Sat Pics,Models and Analysis

#60 Postby TampaFl » Fri Jun 29, 2007 1:17 pm

Nice sat. loop of mid level low moving across Central Fl.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bobbyh83, ElectricStorm, HurricaneBelle, jaguars_22, LAF92, MetroMike and 49 guests