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Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
ronjon wrote:
Look at the big difference between the HWRF and the GFDL - I thought these models were supposed to be the most accurate - just goes to show you that until there is a stronger well-initialized system, the CLIMO model (CLIPER) is probably the best bet.
wxman57 wrote:ronjon wrote:
Look at the big difference between the HWRF and the GFDL - I thought these models were supposed to be the most accurate - just goes to show you that until there is a stronger well-initialized system, the CLIMO model (CLIPER) is probably the best bet.
GFDL is weakening the low to an open wave and tracking it due west as other waves have moved ahead of it. It appears HWRF maintains a low center and tracks it more to the WNW accordingly. Just looking at the few visible images we have, it looks like the LLC is weakening and moving north of west. I'm beginning to think that maybe there were 2 centers last evening, the old LLC I had been tracking farther north and the one Aric was looking at farther south. The current center may be a second center that formed last evening. It could well be on its way to dissipation and another center could redevelop closer to the convection to the southwest today. Did I mention that I hate tracking such weak systems?
wxman57 wrote:Aric,
Take a look at the model guidance below:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
Note the "OFCI" (NHC Official Interpolated) track going due west along with the CONU (consensus model). The NHC tends to follow the consensus models pretty closely. Although the BAM models (non-dynamic) take the system WNW into the NE Caribbean, apparently the consensus models take it more westerly. NHC might go along with a westerly track should they upgrade it later today. I'd like to be a fly on the wall at the NHC sometimes. What do you think you'd hear today? Maybe:
"Hey Lix! Throw me another burger on the BBQ!"
cycloneye wrote:
Here is the graphic of the 12:00z run of the models.
cycloneye wrote:Adrian,that last post should not haved been made as that could haved been posted in the same post of the models to compare the runs better. So I copy and pasted the run to compare that you posted and then deleited that post.
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