Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5334
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#61 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:35 am

Image

Image

This is a static png and is not updated!
Image
Last edited by Nimbus on Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5077
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

#62 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Jul 04, 2007 5:49 am

The latest Quikscat image can be found here:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi ... t_storm.pl
And clicking "latest wind vector"

The image link changes. You have to visit that page to see the latest. The last pass was on July 3 20:58 GMT.

The image you posted was on July 3 6:26 GMT.

I just wanted to note that for anyone who didn't know it.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#63 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 04, 2007 6:40 am

The depression, I mean disturbance, does look a little better this morning than it did yesterday afternoon. I'm about 100% sure if this system was in the Gulf of Mexico or near the east U.S. Coast that it would be TD 3 (or would have been yesterday). But the NHC typically ignores borderline systems that are well out to sea and likely to weaken. Wording of this morning's outlook indicates they're still not too concerned about 96L, but they may not have seen any visible satellite imagery before it was issued.

I think the NHC will watch for any sign of thunderstorm activity increasing near the LLC today. If they see such an increase, they'll call it TD 3 and begin advisories. Don't know that they'd do it by 10am CDT, but I'll have to head in to work to be ready in a few hours just in case. There goes my 4th of July day off. I'd give it a 60-70% shot at being upgraded to TD 3 by 4pm CDT, though. Trying to predict what the NHC will do is often more difficult than trying to predict what a TC will do, though.

As far as the future of this system, it'll continue to battle dry air for the next 5-7 days, and likely some increase in shear beyond 2-3 days. So it's best chance of becoming Chantal will be the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, it may not be able to survive as anything but an exposed LLC or an open wave as it reaches the islands of the eastern Caribbean on Sunday. There's a slight chance it could reach the islands as a 40-50 mph TS, though. Note that all model guidance weakens it to a wave beyond 72 hours and indicates max intensity of only 40-45 mph over the next few days before weakening.

So you folks from St. Lucia northward to Puerto Rico could see some thunderstorms as it goes by Sunday/Monday but probably not much in the way of wind except for gusts in passing storms.

Just zoomed in on satellite from home to make the images below. I'll be able to get some full-res McIDAS imagery from the office (unfortunately) later this morning. All significant convection remains south of the center. There was a thunderstorm just southeast of the center earlier, but it is dissipating. Maybe the NHC will just be cooking hamburgers and hot dogs today and leave this system alone? ;-)

Image

Image
0 likes   

DrewFL

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#64 Postby DrewFL » Wed Jul 04, 2007 6:53 am

wxman57 ......Sorry you have to work today. Wanted to say I appreciate your input and thanks for what you do. Happy Independence day.
0 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3029
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#65 Postby msbee » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:10 am

thanks for the input wxman57.
we in the NE Caribbean are watching thsi carefully and i appreciate your comments.
sorry you have to work today.
Hope you get some time for a little R&R.
Happy 4th!
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4830
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#66 Postby ronjon » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:22 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Image



Look at the big difference between the HWRF and the GFDL - I thought these models were supposed to be the most accurate - just goes to show you that until there is a stronger well-initialized system, the CLIMO model (CLIPER) is probably the best bet.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#67 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:33 am

ronjon wrote:

Look at the big difference between the HWRF and the GFDL - I thought these models were supposed to be the most accurate - just goes to show you that until there is a stronger well-initialized system, the CLIMO model (CLIPER) is probably the best bet.


GFDL is weakening the low to an open wave and tracking it due west as other waves have moved ahead of it. It appears HWRF maintains a low center and tracks it more to the WNW accordingly. Just looking at the few visible images we have, it looks like the LLC is weakening and moving north of west. I'm beginning to think that maybe there were 2 centers last evening, the old LLC I had been tracking farther north and the one Aric was looking at farther south. The current center may be a second center that formed last evening. It could well be on its way to dissipation and another center could redevelop closer to the convection to the southwest today. Did I mention that I hate tracking such weak systems?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#68 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:34 am

i still see some ITCZ attachment !
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#69 Postby Aquawind » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:35 am

Thanks for the update wxmann57! Please do us a favor and photocopy your schedule for work and relabel it Tropical Weather Threat Days and then post it for everyone. :eek: :lol: Ahh yess..The sacrifices of a moterologist.. :cheesy:
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#70 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:37 am

wxman57 wrote:
ronjon wrote:

Look at the big difference between the HWRF and the GFDL - I thought these models were supposed to be the most accurate - just goes to show you that until there is a stronger well-initialized system, the CLIMO model (CLIPER) is probably the best bet.


GFDL is weakening the low to an open wave and tracking it due west as other waves have moved ahead of it. It appears HWRF maintains a low center and tracks it more to the WNW accordingly. Just looking at the few visible images we have, it looks like the LLC is weakening and moving north of west. I'm beginning to think that maybe there were 2 centers last evening, the old LLC I had been tracking farther north and the one Aric was looking at farther south. The current center may be a second center that formed last evening. It could well be on its way to dissipation and another center could redevelop closer to the convection to the southwest today. Did I mention that I hate tracking such weak systems?


i hate weak system as well . kind of annoying..
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#71 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:44 am

Aric,

Take a look at the model guidance below:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

Note the "OFCI" (NHC Official Interpolated) track going due west along with the CONU (consensus model). The NHC tends to follow the consensus models pretty closely. Although the BAM models (non-dynamic) take the system WNW into the NE Caribbean, apparently the consensus models take it more westerly. NHC might go along with a westerly track should they upgrade it later today. I'd like to be a fly on the wall at the NHC sometimes. What do you think you'd hear today? Maybe:

"Hey Lix! Throw me another burger on the BBQ!"
:flag:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145930
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#72 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:47 am

164
WHXX01 KWBC 041232
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC WED JUL 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070704 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070704 1200 070705 0000 070705 1200 070706 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 43.0W 10.8N 45.4W 10.9N 48.1W 11.3N 50.7W
BAMD 10.6N 43.0W 10.8N 45.6W 10.8N 48.2W 10.8N 50.6W
BAMM 10.6N 43.0W 10.9N 45.1W 11.1N 47.5W 11.5N 50.1W
LBAR 10.6N 43.0W 10.9N 45.6W 11.4N 48.7W 12.1N 52.0W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070706 1200 070707 1200 070708 1200 070709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 53.2W 12.9N 58.5W 15.0N 64.3W 17.4N 70.8W
BAMD 11.1N 52.8W 11.7N 56.9W 13.1N 60.7W 14.8N 65.4W
BAMM 11.9N 52.7W 13.2N 57.8W 15.1N 62.9W 17.2N 69.4W
LBAR 12.8N 55.3W 14.2N 60.9W 16.4N 65.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 276DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 40.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 38.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


As wxman57 said above,the tropical model guidance is a bit more westward than the runs from yesterday in which almost all of them where pointing towards the NE Caribbean.Here is the 12:00z run.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22997
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#73 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:49 am

One final note before I head out. Look at the latest satellite. The LLC is clearly moving well north of due west, possibly separating from the convection which is now SW of the center. Question is, will another center form farther southwest today? If so, then that NHC track (and CONU) may not be far off. And as I look more closely at that image, there may be evidence of 2 other vortices. One located about a degree west and a little north of the one I pointed out, and one south of 10N near 9.8N/42.5W. The one out front may be what I was tracking last evening.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145930
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#74 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:54 am

Image

Here is the graphic of the 12:00z run of the models.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#75 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 7:58 am

wxman57 wrote:Aric,

Take a look at the model guidance below:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

Note the "OFCI" (NHC Official Interpolated) track going due west along with the CONU (consensus model). The NHC tends to follow the consensus models pretty closely. Although the BAM models (non-dynamic) take the system WNW into the NE Caribbean, apparently the consensus models take it more westerly. NHC might go along with a westerly track should they upgrade it later today. I'd like to be a fly on the wall at the NHC sometimes. What do you think you'd hear today? Maybe:

"Hey Lix! Throw me another burger on the BBQ!"
:flag:


im honestly. going against upgrading at this point .. just got done look at the latest sat and microwave data.
I think the other big inhibiting factor is the slight attachment to the ITCZ as it looks to still be cutting off some of the inflow in the SW side.. (hence the weird convection there ). you combine that with the dry air and the not so evident fact that normally over night we would see some sort of sustainable convection!! we did not. the only thing that i noticed that was still in favor is the LLC still looks quite well defined beside the lack of banding all of a sudden on the north side.
as for track most of the steering south of 20n is westerly till you near the islands (in all levels) which would make tend towards a more w to wnw track for the next 48 hours regardless of the strength. after that it would depend on its overall orginization and strength .. i would say a stronger system may tend on a more westerly track and a weaker one more wnw. the problem with most of the global models is that they are just not initializing it well .. some not at all (UKmet) ..
i just dont think unless we see some convection in the short term the nhc will not upgrade at 11am maybe 5pm if we see convection.. the LLC is there it just needs convection now.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#76 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:00 am

cycloneye wrote:Image

Here is the graphic of the 12:00z run of the models.

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070704 1200 070705 0000 070705 1200 070706 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 43.0W 10.8N 45.4W 10.9N 48.1W 11.3N 50.7W
BAMD 10.6N 43.0W 10.8N 45.6W 10.8N 48.2W 10.8N 50.6W
BAMM 10.6N 43.0W 10.9N 45.1W 11.1N 47.5W 11.5N 50.1W
LBAR 10.6N 43.0W 10.9N 45.6W 11.4N 48.7W 12.1N 52.0W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070706 1200 070707 1200 070708 1200 070709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 53.2W 12.9N 58.5W 15.0N 64.3W 17.4N 70.8W
BAMD 11.1N 52.8W 11.7N 56.9W 13.1N 60.7W 14.8N 65.4W
BAMM 11.9N 52.7W 13.2N 57.8W 15.1N 62.9W 17.2N 69.4W
LBAR 12.8N 55.3W 14.2N 60.9W 16.4N 65.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 276DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 40.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 38.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0N

they are a little stronger towards the end of the forecast.. and the tracks have shifted south..

verses the last run

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070704 0600 070704 1800 070705 0600 070705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 41.5W 10.6N 43.4W 10.7N 45.6W 11.0N 48.0W
BAMD 10.4N 41.5W 10.6N 44.0W 10.8N 46.4W 10.9N 48.8W
BAMM 10.4N 41.5W 10.6N 43.6W 10.6N 45.9W 10.8N 48.6W
LBAR 10.4N 41.5W 10.7N 43.8W 11.3N 46.6W 12.0N 49.7W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070706 0600 070707 0600 070708 0600 070709 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 50.5W 12.6N 55.4W 14.5N 61.2W 17.1N 67.8W
BAMD 11.1N 51.2W 11.5N 55.4W 12.5N 59.3W 14.3N 63.8W
BAMM 10.9N 51.4W 11.5N 57.2W 12.9N 62.6W 14.4N 68.4W
LBAR 12.8N 52.8W 14.4N 58.2W 16.8N 62.5W 17.8N 67.7W
SHIP 32KTS 33KTS 33KTS 30KTS
DSHP 32KTS 33KTS 33KTS 27KTS
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15456
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#77 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:06 am

I'm not surprised that models have been trending southward, if this was to survive the stabel environment and then possible shear in the eastern Caribbean, this would be NW Caribbean Candidate thanks to the building ridge south of Bermuda.

This is what Wxman57 was talking about:
Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#78 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:12 am

for once the ramsdis site actually help with the center fix..

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

omit first and last two images..
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145930
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#79 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:13 am

Adrian,that last post should not haved been made as that could haved been posted in the same post of the models to compare the runs better. So I copy and pasted the run to compare that you posted and then deleited that post.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models #2

#80 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:16 am

cycloneye wrote:Adrian,that last post should not haved been made as that could haved been posted in the same post of the models to compare the runs better. So I copy and pasted the run to compare that you posted and then deleited that post.



adrian?

hmm i just tried to to thank you for doing that.. i actaully saw that after i posted the other one sorry! and then i did not realize you had already posted it before earlier..
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bobd33, Cpv17, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], wileytheartist and 102 guests