Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Geordie.NCL]

One final note before I head out. Look at the latest satellite. The LLC is clearly moving well north of due west, possibly separating from the convection which is now SW of the center. Question is, will another center form farther southwest today? If so, then that NHC track (and CONU) may not be far off. And as I look more closely at that image, there may be evidence of 2 other vortices. One located about a degree west and a little north of the one I pointed out, and one south of 10N near 9.8N/42.5W. The one out front may be what I was tracking last evening.

Hi WxMan57,

I suspect that the models are picking up the same thing and that is why the last model run and shifted southward. If this is accurate then it means that the systems stays over warmer waters with a better chance to develop and could become a real threat for the southern Windward Islands next week.

Geordie in NCL

[Geordie.NCL]

I'm not surprised that models have been trending southward, if this was to survive the stabel environment and then possible shear in the eastern Caribbean, this would be NW Caribbean Candidate thanks to the building ridge south of Bermuda.

Hello NDG,

Can you explain why you say you are "not surprised" that the models have been trending southward?

[cycloneye]

pojo,do you think that NHC will notify you and the crew later today to stand by and be ready to task 96L on Thursday or Friday? I ask because by tommorow it will approach 50w.

[Berwick Bay]

The latest model guidance showing a track further south is coming into line with what I posted here about 9 hours ago or so. I said then that I couldn't understand the guidance that showed a WNW movement taking this system north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico. My reasoning was that this was in fact a weak system that was much more likely to be steered by the low level easterlies on a pretty much west to east course.

[wxman57]

Hi WxMan57,

I suspect that the models are picking up the same thing and that is why the last model run and shifted southward. If this is accurate then it means that the systems stays over warmer waters with a better chance to develop and could become a real threat for the southern Windward Islands next week.

Geordie in NCL

It could also mean that it stays attached to the ITCZ and doesn't develop before moving inland into South America.

[Stratosphere747]

I was just thinking that 57'. It needs to start lifting, or else it's a mute point. Strange little wave/disturbance.

[NDG]

I'm not surprised that models have been trending southward, if this was to survive the stabel environment and then possible shear in the eastern Caribbean, this would be NW Caribbean Candidate thanks to the building ridge south of Bermuda.

Hello NDG,

Can you explain why you say you are "not surprised" that the models have been trending southward?

Well, for days now the GFS & Euro have been advertising a building back of the Atlantic ridge from the surface to at least the mid levels of the atmosphere, so there will be a continuing deep westerly steering. The weakness that is off the US east coast will not be there 5-6 days from now.

[wxman57]

I'm still at home. Was about to leave for work but I'm getting more confident the NHC will not do anything with 96L by 10am CDT. Take a look at the image below. The LLC is "exploding" outward. Other arrows indicate possible other vortices in a ring north and east of the convective complex. An appearance like that isn't indicative of strengthening. I'll still head to the office in the next few minutes and snap some McIDAS imagery that I'll post here. Might as well, it's a rain-out here in Houston today. Nothing else to do.

[Berwick Bay]

My latest thinking is don't expect it to gain much latitude too soon. Its still having trouble breaking free from the ITCZ, yet funny, that actually may be a positive for it. I look for this Wave-Depression (its already a depression and will be classified as such in a reanalysis no matter what the NHC calls it now) to continue basically west for another 36 hours or so as it grapples with the ITCZ, but its persistent now, and will begin to gain lat after about 36 hours or so. The lower lat may actually help improve chances of long term development as the storm stays further south of westerly winds in the vicinity of the Leewards. Look for a W then more WNW move taking it into the southern Windward Islands near Barbados or a little south of there. It think that the gain in lat will be associated with a gain in strength and organization at that time, as it will probably me a tropical storm of 55-60 mph south of Barbados.

[Cyclone1]

The NHC is being stubborn. Come on now. Declare it already so I can leave my computer and go to the barbecue.

[skysummit]

Whoa BB....60mph entering the graveyard heh? IF, this does survive the next few days (so far it's been doing better than I expected), this will be in the Caribbean and then probably NW Caribbean making its way toward the Yucatan area.

I'm still kind of amazed that we're watching something this far out this early.

[Berwick Bay]

Even though it has in fact been a depression for at least the last 12 hours or so, I don't think that they will declare it one at 11AM. (I thought so last night, but not now). As others have posted its become very disorganized. No tendency to strengthen at all right now in this state. Do don't look for an upgrade at 11PM. Instead look for persistence over the next 36 hours or so as it maintains a W track. After all is said and done (no matter if it develops or not) the storm will be classified as a tropical cyclone.

[miamicanes177]

Does any model give forecasts on the SAL? If it weren't for this stupid SAL we would have hurricane Chantal right now. 2006 and 2007 has just seen consistent and persistent SAL 24/7.....GRRRRR

[Cyclone1]

Even though it has in fact been a depression for at least the last 12 hours or so, I don't think that they will declare it one at 11AM. (I thought so last night, but not now). As others have posted its become very disorganized. No tendency to strengthen at all right now in this state. Do don't look for an upgrade at 11PM. Instead look for persistence over the next 36 hours or so as it maintains a W track. After all is said and done (no matter if it develops or not) the storm will be classified as a tropical cyclone.

I have decent confidence it'll be TD-3 by 11:00PM. If not, I'll lose proabably all faith in the NHC.

[storms in NC]

The NHC is being stubborn. Come on now. Declare it already so I can leave my computer and go to the barbecue.

I don't see what they have to declare yet. It is not that impressing to me to be called any thing but a wave. But I could be very wrong JIMO

Have fun at the BBQ

Deb

[miamicanes177]

I have decent confidence it'll be TD-3 by 11:00PM. If not, I'll lose proabably all faith in the NHC.

Unless they have recon to confirm they will not upgrade unless convection has been persistent for 24-48 hours directly over the center and it is forecast to intensify the next 2-3 days.

[WindRunner]

The NHC is being stubborn. Come on now. Declare it already so I can leave my computer and go to the barbecue.

You know, if this hadn't looked so good yesterday evening, no one would be expecting it to get named this morning. Such a lopsided system is barely surviving this morning, with convection displaced a good 30 miles from ONE of the possible centers . . . it really doesn't look like that much of a TC this morning . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

This storm reminds me of bonnie '04. It became a depression around here or the eastern caribbean then opened up and when it got to the western caribbean or southern gulf it regenerated and became a TS...Im getting the feeling thats whats going to happen here...Dont necessarily look for any significant development here, although some is possible, but I think down the road its more likely if this thing survives at all

[Berwick Bay]

Yeah Skysummit, I'm not looking for dissipation as many of the models have forecast. Right now its struggling with the ITCZ. But I think its shown persistence and will remain with us as a Wave-Depression for the next 36 hours or so on a basically west course(slightly north of west). At that time we may again see a cycle of better organization as it gradually pulls away from the ITCZ and continues to remain a viable system. A strengthening mode at that time will help to induce more of a W to WNW course (very gradual) into the lower Antilles just south of Barbados. I think that it may have crossed a threshhold then and be a tropical storm of 50 to 60 mph.

[Cyclone1]

The NHC is being stubborn. Come on now. Declare it already so I can leave my computer and go to the barbecue.

I don't see what they have to declare yet. It is not that impressing to me to be called any thing but a wave. But I could be very wrong JIMO

Have fun at the BBQ

Deb

Thanks! I guess you're right. Pressure are relatively high, 1013mbar. Actually that's really high. Oh, well. I'm leaving, call me if this thing develops.