Tropical Wave in Western GOM

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alan1961
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#161 Postby alan1961 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:13 am

GOM looking suspect this morning
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#162 Postby TexWx » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:17 am

I was thinking, "Watch out Louisiana."
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#163 Postby Frank2 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:19 am

No matter what develops - the Gulf trough is forecast to amplify even more this weekend, so, conditions are forecast to be highly unfavorable for tropical development...
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Re:

#164 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:38 am

Frank2 wrote:No matter what develops - the Gulf trough is forecast to amplify even more this weekend, so, conditions are forecast to be highly unfavorable for tropical development...


Over the eastern GOM not the western GOM.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#165 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:44 am

I've read everything in reference to "why" something should not develop
in the Western GOM right now but come now how many times have we seen something
still develop even though shear and everything was working against it?
I still would keep an eye on this area....way too many big boomers out there to ignore.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#166 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:47 am

I have KLIX long range pulled up on GR3. There's a very large rain blanket moving north toward the Louisiana Coast...must be that first wave of convection nearing.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#167 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:24 am

Upper level winds just not right! :x
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#168 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:27 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Upper level winds just not right! :x


ULL stationary near De Rio is effecting overall wind flow aloft, but this should be a big rain maker for TX/LA the next 48 hours as mid level trough aligns from Corpus Christ to Galveston.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#169 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:30 am

If there was a low to form at the surface, it would probably be around where I placed a circle, surface winds around where the deepest convection is this morning and around the MLC that we were tracking this morning is all from the SE and E.
Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#170 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:36 am

NDG wrote:If there was a low to form at the surface, it would probably be around where I placed a circle, surface winds around where the deepest convection is this morning and around the MLC that we were tracking this morning is all from the SE and E.
Image


I don't think it will happen but you never know with these things.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#171 Postby lrak » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:42 am

How much is too much shear?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

5 10 15 20 Kts. The real fast stuff is up North near the TX/LA coast.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#172 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:48 am

The shear at the coasts seems to be the rim of the upper high centered somewhere around Mexico or Central America that has the clockwise flow around the Gulf of Mexico. The type of rain approaching the coast looks like the kind of rainfall that tends to die out over land until the source gets closer. JMO
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#173 Postby Dionne » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:52 am

Stormcenter wrote:I've read everything in reference to "why" something should not develop
in the Western GOM right now but come now how many times have we seen something
still develop even though shear and everything was working against it?
I still would keep an eye on this area....way too many big boomers out there to ignore.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


I agree. Bet it's a "fun" day out on the oil rig platforms!
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#174 Postby tigergirl » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:54 am

NDG wrote:If there was a low to form at the surface, it would probably be around where I placed a circle, surface winds around where the deepest convection is this morning and around the MLC that we were tracking this morning is all from the SE and E.
Image



Good call NDG. I guess that would be the area if any Low was to form:
Image
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#175 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:00 am

Intersting system, but I don't see it forming. That's the last thing Texas needs: a tropical storm. I believe if one did form, it may have an Allison effect. Ugh.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#176 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:01 am

Steve wrote:The shear at the coasts seems to be the rim of the upper high centered somewhere around Mexico or Central America that has the clockwise flow around the Gulf of Mexico. The type of rain approaching the coast looks like the kind of rainfall that tends to die out over land until the source gets closer. JMO



I also agree...good post.
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#177 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:11 am

ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER AVILA
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Re:

#178 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:17 am

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER AVILA


Note that the wording is starting to change some now. Now they are using words like
upper level winds are not favorable for "SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT" instead of "NO DEVELOPMENT" is expected.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Western GOM

#179 Postby Bane » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:20 am

i think that is grasping at straws.
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#180 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:24 am

It is not going develop into a TC, I think we know that much.
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