Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[alan1961]

GOM looking suspect this morning

[TexWx]

I was thinking, "Watch out Louisiana."

[Frank2]

No matter what develops - the Gulf trough is forecast to amplify even more this weekend, so, conditions are forecast to be highly unfavorable for tropical development...

[NDG]

No matter what develops - the Gulf trough is forecast to amplify even more this weekend, so, conditions are forecast to be highly unfavorable for tropical development...

Over the eastern GOM not the western GOM.

[Stormcenter]

I've read everything in reference to "why" something should not develop
in the Western GOM right now but come now how many times have we seen something
still develop even though shear and everything was working against it?
I still would keep an eye on this area....way too many big boomers out there to ignore.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[skysummit]

I have KLIX long range pulled up on GR3. There's a very large rain blanket moving north toward the Louisiana Coast...must be that first wave of convection nearing.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Upper level winds just not right!

[srainhoutx]

Upper level winds just not right!

ULL stationary near De Rio is effecting overall wind flow aloft, but this should be a big rain maker for TX/LA the next 48 hours as mid level trough aligns from Corpus Christ to Galveston.

[NDG]

If there was a low to form at the surface, it would probably be around where I placed a circle, surface winds around where the deepest convection is this morning and around the MLC that we were tracking this morning is all from the SE and E.

[Stormcenter]

If there was a low to form at the surface, it would probably be around where I placed a circle, surface winds around where the deepest convection is this morning and around the MLC that we were tracking this morning is all from the SE and E.

I don't think it will happen but you never know with these things.

[lrak]

How much is too much shear?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

5 10 15 20 Kts. The real fast stuff is up North near the TX/LA coast.

[Steve]

The shear at the coasts seems to be the rim of the upper high centered somewhere around Mexico or Central America that has the clockwise flow around the Gulf of Mexico. The type of rain approaching the coast looks like the kind of rainfall that tends to die out over land until the source gets closer. JMO

[Dionne]

I've read everything in reference to "why" something should not develop
in the Western GOM right now but come now how many times have we seen something
still develop even though shear and everything was working against it?
I still would keep an eye on this area....way too many big boomers out there to ignore.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I agree. Bet it's a "fun" day out on the oil rig platforms!

[tigergirl]

If there was a low to form at the surface, it would probably be around where I placed a circle, surface winds around where the deepest convection is this morning and around the MLC that we were tracking this morning is all from the SE and E.

Good call NDG. I guess that would be the area if any Low was to form:

[Cyclone1]

Intersting system, but I don't see it forming. That's the last thing Texas needs: a tropical storm. I believe if one did form, it may have an Allison effect. Ugh.

[Stormcenter]

The shear at the coasts seems to be the rim of the upper high centered somewhere around Mexico or Central America that has the clockwise flow around the Gulf of Mexico. The type of rain approaching the coast looks like the kind of rainfall that tends to die out over land until the source gets closer. JMO

I also agree...good post.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER AVILA

[Stormcenter]

ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER AVILA

Note that the wording is starting to change some now. Now they are using words like
upper level winds are not favorable for "SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT" instead of "NO DEVELOPMENT" is expected.

[Bane]

i think that is grasping at straws.

[dwg71]

It is not going develop into a TC, I think we know that much.