This is the one-Well Defined Wave in East Atlantic

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flwxwatcher
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Re: Vigorous Wave about to Emerge Africa

#41 Postby flwxwatcher » Thu Jul 26, 2007 8:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOTT.html

Observations inside Senegal show pressures down to 1008 mbs.

Interesting, I am waiting to see how the next few runs of the Models handle this strong wave..
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Re: Vigorous Wave about to Emerge Africa=Senegal obs,1008 mbs

#42 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:10 pm

Hope everyone has enjoyed the last 7 weeks of quiet.
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Re: Vigorous Wave about to Emerge Africa=Senegal obs,1008 mbs

#43 Postby boca » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:18 pm

Brent wrote:Hope everyone has enjoyed the last 7 weeks of quiet.

Brent I have my shutters now. Not that I want to use them but I'm ready.
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Re: This is the one - hitting Dakar around 07/27

#44 Postby wjs3 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:18 pm

Phil--

Thanks for the reply. I will check other models later. Convection is not quite as concentrated right now, huh?

WJS3
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Re: This is the one - hitting Dakar around 07/27

#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:24 pm

philnyc your thread and my thread (Vigorous Wave about to emerge Africa) are now merged to not have two threads about the same system. :)
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa

#46 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:27 pm

Ah, ok cycloneye, I was wondering what happend. Thanks for the explanation!
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa,obs,1008 mbs

#47 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:37 pm

Could indeed be our first candidate for development in the coming days.

See loop here on EUMETSAT.Click 5 for close-up animation.
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Re: This is the one - hitting Dakar around 07/27

#48 Postby philnyc » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:philnyc your thread and my thread (Vigorous Wave about to emerge Africa) are now merged to not have two threads about the same system. :)


Cool. Thanks, cycloneye. It sure looks like this one could go for a while. :)
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa,obs,1008 mbs

#49 Postby Sanibel » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:51 pm

Looks like it is already fading. Atlantic is very negative like last year.
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa,obs,1008 mbs

#50 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:52 pm

Sanibel wrote:Looks like it is already fading. Atlantic is very negative like last year.


how is it fading...looks no differeent to me...
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Re: This is the one - hitting Dakar around 07/27

#51 Postby philnyc » Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:54 pm

wjs3 wrote:Phil--

Thanks for the reply. I will check other models later. Convection is not quite as concentrated right now, huh?

WJS3


Yes, Winn, as expected. The diurnal variation would explain that. I'd expect to see convection flare up overnight tonight and then die down a lot tomorrow, not just because of the expected daytime ebb but it will be rolling off into the Atlantic. But it still seems like this one has a much better chance than previous ones. Look at the MLAEJ over the past few days:

Image

and compare it to the climatological normal for those days:

Image

It is now getting noticeably faster than normal, which is conducive to development, since it will support convection out ahead of the wave axis. Quite interesting.
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa,obs,1008 mbs

#52 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:14 pm

The fact that the system is bringing with it such a HUGE influx of deep tropical moisture to the E. Atlantic in late July makes it worthy of note. It is not very common to see that even in late July. In order to understand this, we have to remember that July is usually one of the driest, if not the driest month of the tropical season in the Atlantic due mainly to the huge SAL outbreaks and strength of the Azores/Bermuda High, etc. In this particular case, out of ALL that deep moisture-laden atmosphere a surface low may develop and could easily spin up. We have to watch this one as it comes off...
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa,obs,1008 mbs

#53 Postby philnyc » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:39 pm

Yeah, hyperstorm, most of the environmental indicators are for, rather than against, development. If this makes it to 30 or 35 degrees west with decent spin and even a little convection, it could intensify nicely. Here's the latest water vapor in the middle levels, probably one of the most crucial factors in allowing development:

Image

I already posted the MLAEJ and SAL previously. But there seem to be few limiting factors for this wave at all, especially once it nears 30 west.
Last edited by philnyc on Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#54 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:44 pm

Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: This is the one -Vigorous wave emerging Africa,obs,1008 mbs

#55 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:06 pm

philnyc wrote:Yeah, hyperstorm, most of the environmental indicators are for, rather than against, development. If this makes it to 30 or 35 degrees west with decent spin and even a little convection, it could intensify nicely. Here's the latest water vapor in the middle levels, probably one of the most crucial factors in allowing development:

Image

I already posted the MLAEJ and SAL previously. But there seem to be few limiting factors for this wave at all, especially once it nears 30 west.


Actually, as this storm moves further west, conditions should improve...shear gets progressively lower as it moves further west, down to 5-10kts of shear nearing the windwards...and also, SAL, depsite the fact there is a lot of it, it is fairly weak and shouldn't interfere with this storm as much as previous ones. But nothing is written in stone and things can very easily change, so as it is with everything else in the tropics, its a wait and see game
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Re:

#56 Postby philnyc » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:18 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?


Hi Jim,

I'll have to look further (it's time to organize my bookmarks), but try this one for starters:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/hurricane.html
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Re: Re:

#57 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:43 pm

philnyc wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?


Hi Jim,

I'll have to look further (it's time to organize my bookmarks), but try this one for starters:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/hurricane.html

Thanks for the link. I learned something new today - that if we find a way to predict its strength months in advance, it can be a good tool for seasonal forecasting.
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Re: Re:

#58 Postby philnyc » Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:10 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
philnyc wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?


Hi Jim,

I'll have to look further (it's time to organize my bookmarks), but try this one for starters:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/hurricane.html

Thanks for the link. I learned something new today - that if we find a way to predict its strength months in advance, it can be a good tool for seasonal forecasting.


Absolutely. We are clearly getting there. BTW, it doesn't seem to shift strength or position very quickly. That's why the NHC and Colorado State use it in their initial and updated forecasts for each new hurricane season. The fact that it changes relatively slowly means that what you see by late Spring is a fairly good indicator of what you'll get in summer. The fact that it still does change however, allows us to keep monitoring it during the hurricane season so that we can adjust the number of Cape Verde storms up or down depending on how it's trending. Pretty cool stuff. But the bottom line is, yes, we need to find a way to predict it months in advance somehow.
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#59 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:34 am

Area is looking quite impressive with that large blowup of convection, it appears it's large envelope has decreased somewhat, but that sort of thing is really to be expected with rather large tropical waves like this.

I don't know how high development chances are, but this system is faring pretty well as of now.
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#60 Postby southerngreen » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:55 am

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