This is the one-Well Defined Wave in East Atlantic

[flwxwatcher]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOTT.html

Observations inside Senegal show pressures down to 1008 mbs.

Interesting, I am waiting to see how the next few runs of the Models handle this strong wave..

[Brent]

Hope everyone has enjoyed the last 7 weeks of quiet.

[boca]

Hope everyone has enjoyed the last 7 weeks of quiet.

Brent I have my shutters now. Not that I want to use them but I'm ready.

[wjs3]

Phil--

Thanks for the reply. I will check other models later. Convection is not quite as concentrated right now, huh?

WJS3

[cycloneye]

philnyc your thread and my thread (Vigorous Wave about to emerge Africa) are now merged to not have two threads about the same system.

[brunota2003]

Ah, ok cycloneye, I was wondering what happend. Thanks for the explanation!

[windstorm99]

Could indeed be our first candidate for development in the coming days.

See loop here on EUMETSAT.Click 5 for close-up animation.

[philnyc]

philnyc your thread and my thread (Vigorous Wave about to emerge Africa) are now merged to not have two threads about the same system.

Cool. Thanks, cycloneye. It sure looks like this one could go for a while.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it is already fading. Atlantic is very negative like last year.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like it is already fading. Atlantic is very negative like last year.

how is it fading...looks no differeent to me...

[philnyc]

Phil--

Thanks for the reply. I will check other models later. Convection is not quite as concentrated right now, huh?

WJS3

Yes, Winn, as expected. The diurnal variation would explain that. I'd expect to see convection flare up overnight tonight and then die down a lot tomorrow, not just because of the expected daytime ebb but it will be rolling off into the Atlantic. But it still seems like this one has a much better chance than previous ones. Look at the MLAEJ over the past few days:



and compare it to the climatological normal for those days:



It is now getting noticeably faster than normal, which is conducive to development, since it will support convection out ahead of the wave axis. Quite interesting.

[Hyperstorm]

The fact that the system is bringing with it such a HUGE influx of deep tropical moisture to the E. Atlantic in late July makes it worthy of note. It is not very common to see that even in late July. In order to understand this, we have to remember that July is usually one of the driest, if not the driest month of the tropical season in the Atlantic due mainly to the huge SAL outbreaks and strength of the Azores/Bermuda High, etc. In this particular case, out of ALL that deep moisture-laden atmosphere a surface low may develop and could easily spin up. We have to watch this one as it comes off...

[philnyc]

Yeah, hyperstorm, most of the environmental indicators are for, rather than against, development. If this makes it to 30 or 35 degrees west with decent spin and even a little convection, it could intensify nicely. Here's the latest water vapor in the middle levels, probably one of the most crucial factors in allowing development:



I already posted the MLAEJ and SAL previously. But there seem to be few limiting factors for this wave at all, especially once it nears 30 west.

[wxmann_91]

Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah, hyperstorm, most of the environmental indicators are for, rather than against, development. If this makes it to 30 or 35 degrees west with decent spin and even a little convection, it could intensify nicely. Here's the latest water vapor in the middle levels, probably one of the most crucial factors in allowing development:



I already posted the MLAEJ and SAL previously. But there seem to be few limiting factors for this wave at all, especially once it nears 30 west.

Actually, as this storm moves further west, conditions should improve...shear gets progressively lower as it moves further west, down to 5-10kts of shear nearing the windwards...and also, SAL, depsite the fact there is a lot of it, it is fairly weak and shouldn't interfere with this storm as much as previous ones. But nothing is written in stone and things can very easily change, so as it is with everything else in the tropics, its a wait and see game

[philnyc]

Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?

Hi Jim,

I'll have to look further (it's time to organize my bookmarks), but try this one for starters:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/hurricane.html

[wxmann_91]

Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?

Hi Jim,

I'll have to look further (it's time to organize my bookmarks), but try this one for starters:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/hurricane.html

Thanks for the link. I learned something new today - that if we find a way to predict its strength months in advance, it can be a good tool for seasonal forecasting.

[philnyc]

Phil, are there any published papers about the effects of the Mid-Level African Easterly Jet on eastern Atlantic TC activity?

Hi Jim,

I'll have to look further (it's time to organize my bookmarks), but try this one for starters:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/hurricane.html

Thanks for the link. I learned something new today - that if we find a way to predict its strength months in advance, it can be a good tool for seasonal forecasting.

Absolutely. We are clearly getting there. BTW, it doesn't seem to shift strength or position very quickly. That's why the NHC and Colorado State use it in their initial and updated forecasts for each new hurricane season. The fact that it changes relatively slowly means that what you see by late Spring is a fairly good indicator of what you'll get in summer. The fact that it still does change however, allows us to keep monitoring it during the hurricane season so that we can adjust the number of Cape Verde storms up or down depending on how it's trending. Pretty cool stuff. But the bottom line is, yes, we need to find a way to predict it months in advance somehow.

[Weatherfreak000]

Area is looking quite impressive with that large blowup of convection, it appears it's large envelope has decreased somewhat, but that sort of thing is really to be expected with rather large tropical waves like this.

I don't know how high development chances are, but this system is faring pretty well as of now.

[southerngreen]

looks pretty good this morning

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html