Signs of change from global models

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 24 hours.

[Rainband]

Game on??? What is that west of tampa.???

What GFS shows there is a front dropping down to Florida/GOM and forming a weak low but nothing strong reaching Tropical Storm.

Thanks luis

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 54 hours.

Already it develops the wave now emerging Africa with a 1006 mb low in 54 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 66 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 78 hours.

[Vortex]

Based on the various parameters from several of the Globals this system will likely have a large envelope...The days ahead will get interesting!!

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 90 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFs at 102 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the SAL and dry air over the Eastern Atlatnic, I would give that about 5 percent chance of forming.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 120 hours.

[skysummit]

Matt....SAL is MUCH lower now than it was the past couple weeks. It shouldn't hamper devleopment much.

[cycloneye]

With the SAL and dry air over the Eastern Atlatnic, I would give that about 5 percent chance of forming.

Matt,as you can see,the sal is less than in the past few weeks and where this big wave is emerging Africa,there is none.

[skysummit]

Yes, and even if that big wave doesn't do anything, it will surely pave the way for the waves following it.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 144 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFs at 156 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFs at 168 hours.

It looks like a track towards the Lesser Antilles,although not a strong low yet.

[Vortex]

With ridging to the north and west it would come very close if not over the islands. Also the ridge has been building west since h-120

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 204 hours.

Reaches the Lesser Antilles,but as a 1010 mb low.

[Andrew92]

Definitely something to watch, even if the GFS tries to weaken it toward the end of the frame. Those intensity projections could be very large that far out as we all know.

-Andrew92