Signs of change from global models

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cycloneye
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#121 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:37 pm

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00z GFS at 24 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models

#122 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:Game on??? What is that west of tampa.???



What GFS shows there is a front dropping down to Florida/GOM and forming a weak low but nothing strong reaching Tropical Storm.
Thanks luis :D
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#123 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:41 pm

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00z GFS at 36 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#124 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:48 pm

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00z GFS at 54 hours.

Already it develops the wave now emerging Africa with a 1006 mb low in 54 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#125 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:52 pm

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00z GFS at 66 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#126 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:57 pm

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00z GFS at 78 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#127 Postby Vortex » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:02 pm

Based on the various parameters from several of the Globals this system will likely have a large envelope...The days ahead will get interesting!!
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#128 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:03 pm

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00z GFS at 90 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#129 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:10 pm

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00z GFs at 102 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#130 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:12 pm

With the SAL and dry air over the Eastern Atlatnic, I would give that about 5 percent chance of forming.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#131 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:14 pm

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00z GFS at 120 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#132 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:15 pm

Matt....SAL is MUCH lower now than it was the past couple weeks. It shouldn't hamper devleopment much.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#133 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:With the SAL and dry air over the Eastern Atlatnic, I would give that about 5 percent chance of forming.


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Matt,as you can see,the sal is less than in the past few weeks and where this big wave is emerging Africa,there is none.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#134 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:19 pm

Yes, and even if that big wave doesn't do anything, it will surely pave the way for the waves following it.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#135 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:22 pm

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00z GFS at 144 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#136 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:28 pm

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00z GFs at 156 hours.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#137 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:33 pm

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00z GFs at 168 hours.

It looks like a track towards the Lesser Antilles,although not a strong low yet.
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#138 Postby Vortex » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:37 pm

With ridging to the north and west it would come very close if not over the islands. Also the ridge has been building west since h-120
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Re: Signs of change from Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#139 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:38 pm

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00z GFS at 204 hours.

Reaches the Lesser Antilles,but as a 1010 mb low.
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#140 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:38 pm

Definitely something to watch, even if the GFS tries to weaken it toward the end of the frame. Those intensity projections could be very large that far out as we all know.

-Andrew92
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