Invest 98L in Western Atlantic
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
still looking pretty suspicious this afternoon with convection sustaining for most of the day in one area......
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
One ship out there today, of course they are unreliable.
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 25.00 -75.00 163 271 270 12.0 - - - - - 29.83 -0.06
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 25.00 -75.00 163 271 270 12.0 - - - - - 29.83 -0.06
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
Yes east of the Bahamas is refiring this morning and looking better than ever. Wondered about this yesterday when asking about the coordinates given by the NHC. A very broad area was mentioned including further north off the Daytona Beach area. But this area east of the Bahamas had my attention then, and again today. Here's this morning's IR PIC.


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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
Oh, and one other thing, you'll have to forgive a La. resident who casts a concerned look at this area east of the Bahamas, birthplace of Katrina and Rita.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
looks like the new GFS wants to develop something here and lift it North.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
Looks to me like this area east of the Bahamas may have found a convenient little niche for development. Its at the extreme south end of a trough which runs S to N out ahead of the surface high over the continent. At its position there's not a lot of shear (I don't think, not like further north off N Fl). There's also a ULL to its east. I don't think the convection is being enhanced by the ULL directly, but it may be more of an indirect effect. In other words conditions on top of our disturbance may be more on the order of high pressure, with that ULL to the east showing the low pressure at upper levels there. Perhaps some of the mets could correct me about this, but I think it may have a chance. Here's the WV Loop.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
Caneman wrote
looks like the new GFS wants to develop something here and lift it North.
___________________________________________________
Thanks for the model info Caneman. I would think that if development did occur here, that the best bet would be north in along the trough. Wonder if there's a chance that it could get left behind? Wondering if the trough might push further east and bring that continental high over and on top of the E of Bahamas disturbance? Maybe the trough picks up the ULL to the east of the disturbance, but leaves the (possibly)forming surface low down east of the Bahamas to sit for awhile?? Pure speculation on my part. Anyway. I have to go get my walking in before these tropical rains associated with that disturbance along the Texas Coast come back in on us today (SW La.). Yesterdays rains had a real "tropical flavor" to them. Felt like they were associated with a depression or something. Nice feeling.
looks like the new GFS wants to develop something here and lift it North.
___________________________________________________
Thanks for the model info Caneman. I would think that if development did occur here, that the best bet would be north in along the trough. Wonder if there's a chance that it could get left behind? Wondering if the trough might push further east and bring that continental high over and on top of the E of Bahamas disturbance? Maybe the trough picks up the ULL to the east of the disturbance, but leaves the (possibly)forming surface low down east of the Bahamas to sit for awhile?? Pure speculation on my part. Anyway. I have to go get my walking in before these tropical rains associated with that disturbance along the Texas Coast come back in on us today (SW La.). Yesterdays rains had a real "tropical flavor" to them. Felt like they were associated with a depression or something. Nice feeling.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
Bill Keneely just said on Tropical Update that a "weak low pressure area" has formed north of Caicos Island.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
Shear looks low in the area from what I can tell. This is a nice visible of this area this morning. It looks good.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Low pressure forming in Bahamas
Thunder44 wrote:Bill Keneely just said on Tropical Update that a "weak low pressure area" has formed north of Caicos Island.
Yeah,
If you look at the visible. I believe you can actually see the area of possible LLC
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Area of low pressure forming East of Bahamas
Can someone change title of thread accordingly then. I tried but must not have rights. Thanks
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas
anyone know how to change title. Based on what Bill Kennely said Low pressure is forming. Change to Low pressure forming East of Bahamas?
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