Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

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Aric Dunn
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#21 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:32 pm

the only surface low i see that is forming is east of the bahamas system about 58 w and 26 n .. but there is a ULL near it and shear is presently high and well as pressure in the entire western atlantic.
but since both features have been around for days now they need to be watch just encase
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gatorcane
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#22 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:59 pm

still looking pretty suspicious this afternoon with convection sustaining for most of the day in one area......

Thoughts?
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#23 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:07 pm

Maybe slow development. I will watch it
and watch the convection. Lots of moisture,
high heat content, if shear is low then slow
development.
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#24 Postby Meso » Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:23 pm

Image
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#25 Postby jrod » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:24 pm

I was just looking at that model. I would not call it a suspect area just yet though. Isaw this feature last night dropping to the south and was wondering what was going on. Ill give it a slight chance of somethingt o watch in the days ahead.
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#26 Postby storms in NC » Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:38 pm

not going to happen. Thing have to get a little better than they are now. Well Got to go having TS now here. Will talk about this later
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#27 Postby Bane » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:47 pm

not worried about this at all.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#28 Postby xironman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 5:21 am

One ship out there today, of course they are unreliable.

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0700 25.00 -75.00 163 271 270 12.0 - - - - - 29.83 -0.06
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Berwick Bay

Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#29 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:27 am

Yes east of the Bahamas is refiring this morning and looking better than ever. Wondered about this yesterday when asking about the coordinates given by the NHC. A very broad area was mentioned including further north off the Daytona Beach area. But this area east of the Bahamas had my attention then, and again today. Here's this morning's IR PIC.
Image
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Berwick Bay

Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#30 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:30 am

Oh, and one other thing, you'll have to forgive a La. resident who casts a concerned look at this area east of the Bahamas, birthplace of Katrina and Rita.
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caneman

Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#31 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:38 am

looks like the new GFS wants to develop something here and lift it North.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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Berwick Bay

Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#32 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:46 am

Looks to me like this area east of the Bahamas may have found a convenient little niche for development. Its at the extreme south end of a trough which runs S to N out ahead of the surface high over the continent. At its position there's not a lot of shear (I don't think, not like further north off N Fl). There's also a ULL to its east. I don't think the convection is being enhanced by the ULL directly, but it may be more of an indirect effect. In other words conditions on top of our disturbance may be more on the order of high pressure, with that ULL to the east showing the low pressure at upper levels there. Perhaps some of the mets could correct me about this, but I think it may have a chance. Here's the WV Loop.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
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Berwick Bay

Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#33 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:58 am

Caneman wrote
looks like the new GFS wants to develop something here and lift it North.
___________________________________________________
Thanks for the model info Caneman. I would think that if development did occur here, that the best bet would be north in along the trough. Wonder if there's a chance that it could get left behind? Wondering if the trough might push further east and bring that continental high over and on top of the E of Bahamas disturbance? Maybe the trough picks up the ULL to the east of the disturbance, but leaves the (possibly)forming surface low down east of the Bahamas to sit for awhile?? Pure speculation on my part. Anyway. I have to go get my walking in before these tropical rains associated with that disturbance along the Texas Coast come back in on us today (SW La.). Yesterdays rains had a real "tropical flavor" to them. Felt like they were associated with a depression or something. Nice feeling.
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Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#34 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:01 am

Bill Keneely just said on Tropical Update that a "weak low pressure area" has formed north of Caicos Island.
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caneman

Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#35 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:02 am

Shear looks low in the area from what I can tell. This is a nice visible of this area this morning. It looks good.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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caneman

Low pressure forming in Bahamas

#36 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:03 am

Thunder44 wrote:Bill Keneely just said on Tropical Update that a "weak low pressure area" has formed north of Caicos Island.


Yeah,

If you look at the visible. I believe you can actually see the area of possible LLC
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caneman

Area of low pressure forming East of Bahamas

#37 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:06 am

Can someone change title of thread accordingly then. I tried but must not have rights. Thanks
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:17 am

Image

Looks really interesting. Lets see if it persists.
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#39 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:20 am

Low level steering is now south to north, however, it's very weak. I wonder how long this can meander there.
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caneman

Re: Convection East of Bahamas

#40 Postby caneman » Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:22 am

anyone know how to change title. Based on what Bill Kennely said Low pressure is forming. Change to Low pressure forming East of Bahamas?
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