INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[skysummit]

Didn't we expect this though? At least some of us? This is normal for developing systems. Convection will probably continue to increase for the next few hours into the early morning hours, then tomorrow will likely decrease again. If convection does persist past 10am EDT tomorrow, I'll be shocked. That'll mean this is just stronger than what I'm currently thinking.

IMO, it still does have a ways to go before making TD status, but if this convection can maintain itself, I believe it's possible by the 530pm TWO tomorrow.

[jaxfladude]

OH Sh*T the tropics are starting to act up.....

[Weatherfreak000]

I can't believe beyond a week out i've ALREADY seen a Florida strike forecast


Oh yeah, Hurricane Season has begun all right.

[hurricanefloyd5]

oh yeah if TD#4/TS DEAN forms from this then watches and warnings going out!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Thunder44]

Interesting quote from a NHC forecaster in a news article on this system:

"This certainly is the best defined system we've had so far in the deep tropics,'' hurricane specialist James Franklin said. Franklin said the upper level winds are favorable for the system to strengthen

You can read the entire article here:
http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-now-a ... 9206.story

[Javlin]

Remember how good it looked last night. I would wait 12 hours. If we get data supporting the devleopment of a LLC under the convection. Then we can start calling for a depression. Intill then wait in see.

While I agree Matt entirely that symmentry and expansion of the convection for lack of a better adjective "looks like stacking".But hey tomorrow will gives us a better picture.

[Berwick Bay]

Blown away said
I like the way you just put it out there Berwick Bay!! I agree, the models anticipate a shallow system and a W track. If this spins up quickly it will gain latitude. However, if a deeper system forms quickly a more WNW track will go through the Hispanola & Cuba wall.
________________________________________________
Yes thats pretty much what I said "Blown Away". However, I did screw up in posting Treasure's forecast, I didn't do it correctly and it came out looking like my own. But you're right I will "put it out there" when its time. I like this so much better than trying to forecast future development. Once a system gets going and its a matter of forecasting direction, thats where "the money is". Anyway, thanks for the comment, and I will issue my Berwick Model in a day or two.

[philnyc]

Hopefully everyone has seen now that this discussion has moved over to "active storms"...

[Wx_Warrior]

Let the fun begin!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

keep in mind that this can only gain so much latitude. Even if it spins up quickly, it will eventually meet resistance from the building high and be pushed back on a more westward course.

[Weatherfreak14]

Hopefully everyone has seen now that this discussion has moved over to "active storms"...

I think you are talking about 98L. this is not in the active tropics.

[Normandy]

Man this has some serious inflow....i think we can def forget about that MLC now.

[gatorcane]

Convection is here to stay. This one is for real folks. It's got just about everything going for it......

again, just hoping it passes way south of the SE US....we need that monster ridge to build in quick but we shouldn't count on it -- it hasn't been around the entire summer....

hoping for that westrunner, hoping for that westrunner,.....

[Brent]

Are those banding features?

Unlike earlier, this blob is very concentrated instead of being spread out and disorganized looking. This is it I think.

[skysummit]

Man this has some serious inflow....i think we can def forget about that MLC now.

I agree. The MLC has just about completely diminished.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Convection is here to stay. This one is for real folks. It's got just about everything going for it......

again, just hoping it passes way south of the SE US....we need that monster ridge to build in quick but we shouldn't count on it -- it hasn't been around the entire summer....

hoping for that westrunner, hoping for that westrunner,.....

Don't worry..it probably will be a westrunner. However, I wouldn't be all too shocked if this caught some kind of weakness in the western caribbean and threatened FL from the left side. I guess time will tell. We will need to see if this can actually form into a named storm first though before we begin to worry.

[Normandy]

Id bet that it goes through another day of organizing before it becomes a depression...its gotten better looking with each day that passes...perhaps wed will be the day.

[Vortex]

Impressive Sat loop 315 utc



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
the center appears to be forming more north than the models have it....not good also....

and a WNW to NW "movement" is noted over the past couple of hours as it is trying to get organized...

also not good...

I expect model guidance to shift north and take it close or over Jamaica...then once it is in the NW Caribbean that is where the fuzzy areas come in to play....but a SE US threat appears possible with this one.

[skysummit]

LOL....the 00z GFS doesn't even have it at 48 hours.