INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
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- skysummit
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Didn't we expect this though? At least some of us? This is normal for developing systems. Convection will probably continue to increase for the next few hours into the early morning hours, then tomorrow will likely decrease again. If convection does persist past 10am EDT tomorrow, I'll be shocked. That'll mean this is just stronger than what I'm currently thinking.
IMO, it still does have a ways to go before making TD status, but if this convection can maintain itself, I believe it's possible by the 530pm TWO tomorrow.
IMO, it still does have a ways to go before making TD status, but if this convection can maintain itself, I believe it's possible by the 530pm TWO tomorrow.
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
oh yeah if TD#4/TS DEAN forms from this then watches and warnings going out!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
Interesting quote from a NHC forecaster in a news article on this system:
You can read the entire article here:
http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-now-a ... 9206.story
"This certainly is the best defined system we've had so far in the deep tropics,'' hurricane specialist James Franklin said. Franklin said the upper level winds are favorable for the system to strengthen
You can read the entire article here:
http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-now-a ... 9206.story
Last edited by Thunder44 on Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Remember how good it looked last night. I would wait 12 hours. If we get data supporting the devleopment of a LLC under the convection. Then we can start calling for a depression. Intill then wait in see.
While I agree Matt entirely that symmentry and expansion of the convection for lack of a better adjective "looks like stacking".But hey tomorrow will gives us a better picture.
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
Blown away said
I like the way you just put it out there Berwick Bay!! I agree, the models anticipate a shallow system and a W track. If this spins up quickly it will gain latitude. However, if a deeper system forms quickly a more WNW track will go through the Hispanola & Cuba wall.
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Yes thats pretty much what I said "Blown Away". However, I did screw up in posting Treasure's forecast, I didn't do it correctly and it came out looking like my own. But you're right I will "put it out there" when its time. I like this so much better than trying to forecast future development. Once a system gets going and its a matter of forecasting direction, thats where "the money is". Anyway, thanks for the comment, and I will issue my Berwick Model in a day or two.
I like the way you just put it out there Berwick Bay!! I agree, the models anticipate a shallow system and a W track. If this spins up quickly it will gain latitude. However, if a deeper system forms quickly a more WNW track will go through the Hispanola & Cuba wall.
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Yes thats pretty much what I said "Blown Away". However, I did screw up in posting Treasure's forecast, I didn't do it correctly and it came out looking like my own. But you're right I will "put it out there" when its time. I like this so much better than trying to forecast future development. Once a system gets going and its a matter of forecasting direction, thats where "the money is". Anyway, thanks for the comment, and I will issue my Berwick Model in a day or two.
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
Hopefully everyone has seen now that this discussion has moved over to "active storms"...
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
philnyc wrote:Hopefully everyone has seen now that this discussion has moved over to "active storms"...
I think you are talking about 98L. this is not in the active tropics.
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- gatorcane
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
Convection is here to stay. This one is for real folks. It's got just about everything going for it......
again, just hoping it passes way south of the SE US....we need that monster ridge to build in quick but we shouldn't count on it -- it hasn't been around the entire summer....
hoping for that westrunner, hoping for that westrunner,.....
again, just hoping it passes way south of the SE US....we need that monster ridge to build in quick but we shouldn't count on it -- it hasn't been around the entire summer....
hoping for that westrunner, hoping for that westrunner,.....

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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
Are those banding features?
Unlike earlier, this blob is very concentrated instead of being spread out and disorganized looking. This is it I think.
Unlike earlier, this blob is very concentrated instead of being spread out and disorganized looking. This is it I think.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
Don't worry..it probably will be a westrunner. However, I wouldn't be all too shocked if this caught some kind of weakness in the western caribbean and threatened FL from the left side. I guess time will tell. We will need to see if this can actually form into a named storm first though before we begin to worry.gatorcane wrote:Convection is here to stay. This one is for real folks. It's got just about everything going for it......
again, just hoping it passes way south of the SE US....we need that monster ridge to build in quick but we shouldn't count on it -- it hasn't been around the entire summer....
hoping for that westrunner, hoping for that westrunner,.....
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- gatorcane
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
the center appears to be forming more north than the models have it....not good also....
and a WNW to NW "movement" is noted over the past couple of hours as it is trying to get organized...
also not good...
I expect model guidance to shift north and take it close or over Jamaica...then once it is in the NW Caribbean that is where the fuzzy areas come in to play....but a SE US threat appears possible with this one.
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