INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[Extremeweatherguy]

Persistance is the key.

I have a question because I see this phrase posted a lot when it comes to developing systems...

When would persistance NOT be the key?

You've got a point there actually. I guess it just always is. lol.

update: Philnyc actually answers this below.

[skysummit]

I think the "classic look" is deceiving...if you play a loop of the IR, the center appears to be on the western edge of the convection...not in the center

Are you thinking maybe about where my circle is?

Yes

Ok. After I looked at it more closely, I do see a circulation there, but some of the inflow is suggesting to me there may also be something going on under the blob....say between the circle and the center of the blob. I'm waiting for the next image and then I'm calling it a night. It'll be like Christmas when I wake up to see what 99L withholds.

[rockyman]

Sorry but there is no way that is the dominant center anymore....that is where the MLC was and it clearly is no longer there. The disturbance really doesn't have a center just yet.

The MLC actually spun way off to the west of that circle...that circle seems to be the pivot point on IR tonight...we'll know who's right tomorrow morning

[tolakram]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm. Quickscat shows a west wind. Interesting..

[Normandy]

Thats an interesting quickscat. Ya and the west wind is nowhere near the blowup if im looking at the map correctly.

[philnyc]

Persistance is the key.

I have a question because I see this phrase posted a lot when it comes to developing systems...

When would persistance NOT be the key?

Persistence is NOT the key WHEN a large scale pattern change is occurring. Persistence only works when the major synoptic (large) scale pattern remains in place (i.e. it persists). For example, if the troughing currently occurring in the eastern U.S. changes to a ridge over the next week or two, any mid or long range forecasts that try to predict rains along the east coast (which they do partly by persistence) would be very wrong...

[philnyc]

Thats an interesting quickscat. Ya and the west wind is nowhere near the blowup if im looking at the map correctly.

Those Quikscat images are old. You need to look at the time at the bottom of the image.

[Normandy]

^That makes sense.

[tolakram]

So the blowup is to the north east of the center, but how old is that quickscat image?

[Stratosphere747]

Thats an interesting quickscat. Ya and the west wind is nowhere near the blowup if im looking at the map correctly.

Those Quikscat images are old. You need to look at the time at the bottom of the image.

I was about to mention that. Looks like it was taken when the earlier MLC was racing west.

[skysummit]

Another small blowup of convection....a little closer to where a center (at least one of them) may be. Let's see if this one continues.

[Duddy]

Sexy!

I'm seriously turned on...

[Cyclone1]

Sexy!

I'm seriously turned on...

I'm finding you a date tomorrow.

[rockyman]

Skysummit...I think you've pegged it exactly...a "notch" in the cloud structure often indicates the location of an LLC...especially true with a sheared system (often looks like a candle blowing in the wind)

[Anthonyl]

The NHC initialized a 1011mb low along the wave axis on the general periphery of the blow up of showers as per the updated surface analysis map.

[rockyman]

[HarlequinBoy]

Sexy!

I'm seriously turned on...

[Normandy]

Convection is starting to weaken just a bit, and rockyman appears as if u were right about the location of the Low.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I dont see it weakening as of yet!!!!!!!!!!