INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

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Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Re:

#461 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:11 pm

SaveNola wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Persistance is the key.


I have a question because I see this phrase posted a lot when it comes to developing systems...

When would persistance NOT be the key?
:lol: You've got a point there actually. I guess it just always is. lol.

update: Philnyc actually answers this below.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#462 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:11 pm

rockyman wrote:
skysummit wrote:
rockyman wrote:I think the "classic look" is deceiving...if you play a loop of the IR, the center appears to be on the western edge of the convection...not in the center


Are you thinking maybe about where my circle is?

Yes :)


Ok. After I looked at it more closely, I do see a circulation there, but some of the inflow is suggesting to me there may also be something going on under the blob....say between the circle and the center of the blob. I'm waiting for the next image and then I'm calling it a night. It'll be like Christmas when I wake up to see what 99L withholds.
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Re:

#463 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:12 pm

Normandy wrote:Sorry but there is no way that is the dominant center anymore....that is where the MLC was and it clearly is no longer there. The disturbance really doesn't have a center just yet.


The MLC actually spun way off to the west of that circle...that circle seems to be the pivot point on IR tonight...we'll know who's right tomorrow morning :)
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#464 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:13 pm

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#465 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:16 pm

hmm. Quickscat shows a west wind. Interesting..
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#466 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:16 pm

Thats an interesting quickscat. Ya and the west wind is nowhere near the blowup if im looking at the map correctly.
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Re: Re:

#467 Postby philnyc » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:19 pm

SaveNola wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Persistance is the key.


I have a question because I see this phrase posted a lot when it comes to developing systems...

When would persistance NOT be the key?


Persistence is NOT the key WHEN a large scale pattern change is occurring. Persistence only works when the major synoptic (large) scale pattern remains in place (i.e. it persists). For example, if the troughing currently occurring in the eastern U.S. changes to a ridge over the next week or two, any mid or long range forecasts that try to predict rains along the east coast (which they do partly by persistence) would be very wrong...
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Re:

#468 Postby philnyc » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:21 pm

Normandy wrote:Thats an interesting quickscat. Ya and the west wind is nowhere near the blowup if im looking at the map correctly.


Those Quikscat images are old. You need to look at the time at the bottom of the image.
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#469 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:21 pm

^That makes sense.
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#470 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:21 pm

Image

So the blowup is to the north east of the center, but how old is that quickscat image?
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Re: Re:

#471 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:22 pm

philnyc wrote:
Normandy wrote:Thats an interesting quickscat. Ya and the west wind is nowhere near the blowup if im looking at the map correctly.


Those Quikscat images are old. You need to look at the time at the bottom of the image.


I was about to mention that. Looks like it was taken when the earlier MLC was racing west.
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#472 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:22 pm

Another small blowup of convection....a little closer to where a center (at least one of them) may be. Let's see if this one continues.

Image
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#473 Postby Duddy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:25 pm

Sexy!

I'm seriously turned on...
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#474 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:26 pm

Duddy wrote:Sexy!

I'm seriously turned on...


I'm finding you a date tomorrow.
Last edited by Cyclone1 on Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#475 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:26 pm

Skysummit...I think you've pegged it exactly...a "notch" in the cloud structure often indicates the location of an LLC...especially true with a sheared system (often looks like a candle blowing in the wind)
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#476 Postby Anthonyl » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:27 pm

The NHC initialized a 1011mb low along the wave axis on the general periphery of the blow up of showers as per the updated surface analysis map.
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#477 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:29 pm

Image
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#478 Postby HarlequinBoy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:32 pm

Duddy wrote:Sexy!

I'm seriously turned on...


Image
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#479 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:32 pm

Convection is starting to weaken just a bit, and rockyman appears as if u were right about the location of the Low.
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Re: INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#480 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:34 pm

I dont see it weakening as of yet!!!!!!!!!!
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