Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

hurricanefloyd5 · #1 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:38 pm

Thread 1: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96179&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Thread 2: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96512

Edited by Regit to allow people to find the old threads.

hurricanefloyd5 · #2 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:39 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:here is the new threadhttp://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/vie ... 12&start=0

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:39 pm

well the old LLC is gone folks and the new one is trying to form underneath that mass of convection well NE of the previous positioin -- that means again that a westrunner into the Western GOM likelyhood is lessening...

Notice the tendency of the blob to want to gain lattitude ever so slightly......

gosh I hope it doesn't gain too much more...

Throw out the models until the center finally forms - and we are likely to see a few more repositionings tomorrow....

Regit · #4 Postby **Regit** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:41 pm

The other thread has not yet reached 25 pages. 500 posts = 25 pages.

hurricanefloyd5 · #5 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:well the old LLC is gone folks and the new one is trying to form underneath that mass of convection well NE of the previous positioin -- that means again that a westrunner into the Western GOM likelyhood is lessening...

Notice the tendency of the blob to want to gain lattitude ever so slightly......

gosh I hope it doesn't gain too much more...

Throw out the models until the center finally forms - and we are likely to see a few more repositionings tomorrow....

we could

Normandy · #6 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:02 am

Another blowup of convection commencing.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:05 am

"If" it doe's develop this won't get to strong over the eastern or central caribbean. The shear is at least 20-25 knots, with dry air. There is a outside chance if this thing holds together once into the western caribbean.

Normandy · #8 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:06 am

^Back that up with a shear forecast map.

#9 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:08 am

Hopefully it will stay out of the Gulf on down the road. The way the upper air pattern has been this Summer Texas and Louisiana would be under the gun.

Kerry

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:10 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Yeah its 20 knots around the central caribbean, with increasing shear over the eastern part. Also the stable air is stronger over the eastern part of the caribbean...So its going to have a fight. I do hope this gets named dean.

hurricanefloyd5 · #11 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:12 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Yeah its 20 knots around the central caribbean, with increasing shear over the eastern part. Also the stable air is stronger over the eastern part of the caribbean...So its going to have a fight. I do hope this gets named dean.

I hope so

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:50 am

gatorcane, what is it that you are seeing that would show this not becoming a westrunner or a GOM storm? All the data I am looking at indicates a building ridge to the north, and thus a low chance of this gaining too much latitude (at least until it reaches the western caribbean). Is there something different you are looking at that would indicate a higher threat further north though that I am not seeing? Because unless this gets up to 15-20N, I just do not see how it could be a threat to the southeast U.S. or Florida east coast.

Extremeweatherguy · #13 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:51 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Hopefully it will stay out of the Gulf on down the road. The way the upper air pattern has been this Summer Texas and Louisiana would be under the gun.

Kerry

I am with you on that one. Hopefully this will stay weak and run right into the Yucatan without causing many issues.

hurricanefloyd5 · #14 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 am

maybe or maybe not

#15 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:05 am

Keep it away from us!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :grr:

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:06 am

It's days out from being anywhere and it's already going to hit TX and LA :lol:

Going to be a long season.

hurricanefloyd5 · #17 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:07 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Keep it away from us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tell mother nature!!!!!!!!!!!!Listen to MOTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!

#18 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:07 am

This is an ugly 500 Pattern for TX and Louisiana IF it were to be correct that far out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_264l.gif

PTrackerLA · #19 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:17 am

This system sure went from looking dead to better than ever real quick! Let's hope whatever comes of this stays fairly weak, as KFDM met mentioned :eek:

. Here we go.

southerngale · #20 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:19 am

Rainband wrote:It's days out from being anywhere and it's already going to hit TX and LA Going to be a long season.

Yes it is... but I guess you missed all the "just like Charley, Dennis, and Ivan" posts... and the gazillion look out Florida posts.

It's going to hit a lot of places.

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