Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[RL3AO]

so they are going to fly into it today?

Tomorrow.

which will probably be canceled.

[Ed Mahmoud]

so they are going to fly into it today?

Tomorrow at 18Z, but I'd say, in my uneducated opinion, that there is a 60% chance they cancle the flight tomorrow morning.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Persistence is the key. It needs persistent convection for an LLC to develop. Hasn't happened yet, not happening today. The real trial period will be the next day or two. Could easily go "POOF" like the wave ahead of it. What? Don't see that one? It's just south of eastern Cuba. We've tracked it from Africa. Completely free of convection all across the Caribbean. Perhaps it sacrificed its moisture for 99L.

Doesn't 99L already have an LLC? As per NHC's 8:05 TWD

1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N50W POSSIBLY SPAWNED BY THE RE-LOCATED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 NM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN
120-150 NM OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

so they are going to fly into it today?

Tomorrow at 18Z, but I'd say, in my uneducated opinion, that there is a 60% chance they cancle the flight tomorrow morning.

I saw that RL3AO had already posted pretty much the same thing, but I gave probabilities.

[skysummit]

[Stormcenter]

so they are going to fly into it today?

Tomorrow.

which will probably be canceled.

I agree...especially with gasoline going for $3 plus
a gallon.

[wxman57]

Persistence is the key. It needs persistent convection for an LLC to develop. Hasn't happened yet, not happening today. The real trial period will be the next day or two. Could easily go "POOF" like the wave ahead of it. What? Don't see that one? It's just south of eastern Cuba. We've tracked it from Africa. Completely free of convection all across the Caribbean. Perhaps it sacrificed its moisture for 99L.

Doesn't 99L already have an LLC? As per NHC's 8:05 TWD

1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N50W POSSIBLY SPAWNED BY THE RE-LOCATED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 NM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN
120-150 NM OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

By "develop", I'm meaning increase in organization. There may be a weak transitory LLC associated with 99L.

[RL3AO]

I agree...especially with gasoline going for $3 plus
a gallon.

I think jet fuel is more like 5 or 6 dollars a gallon.

[Sjones]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Think we have a fighter on our hands people!

[Weatherfreak14]

Convection still hanging on a bit to the north, maybe a new center, just maybe.

[dwg71]

I think if nothing refires by this evening you can stick a fork in 99L...next 90L any guesses?

[CaneCharmer]

IMHO, It looks to me like 99L is a fighter. It appears that the center is attempting to recirculate a little to the northeast. Anyone else agree? Still early in the season, I know, but if somehow 99L makes it north of the islands, things will get interesting. I also like the wave that rolled off the coast.

[Tenspeed]

Go away little 99L, and stay away from the gulf!

[Stormcenter]

IMHO, It looks to me like 99L is a fighter. It appears that the center is attempting to recirculate a little to the northeast. Anyone else agree? Still early in the season, I know, but if somehow 99L makes it north of the islands, things will get interesting. I also like the wave that rolled off the coast.

They are all fighters but sometimes that is not enough.

I'm still sticking with a 20% development chance into a TS or more.
It wouldn't take much to make it a TD.

[CaneCharmer]

What else does it need? We've got great SST's, low shear ahead, a little LLC, for starters. I say if the "poof " factor doesn't come in, we have Dean on the way.

[canegrl04]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Think we have a fighter on our hands people!

If this becomes TD#4,let me help the naysayers wipe the egg off their faces If it doesn't,you can do the same for me.

[jrod]

The convection hasn't been able to sustain itself, or it would already be a TD imo. I am expecting the convection to refire this evening, and only time will tell if it can refire and sustain itself.

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

The overall structure looks worse now than at any other point since being declared an invest. Convection is gone and its lost its rotation. I will lead the way and say its dead. Flame if you wish, crow for dinner???...I've eaten worse.

[Brent]

I'm not impressed... and I'm ONCE AGAIN tired of disappointing invests. Is it too much to ask for to have a storm to develop with no dry air or shear?

I'm not declaring this dead though, just don't see anything happening for a couple of days.

[jrod]

The dvorak still shows some spin. I am going to predict it will refire before 2300EDT tonight. Im guessing right now the blob to the south of it is 'robbing' energy from the invest.