Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[windstorm99]

Winds are at 25kts on NRL...

[Beam]

I don't know about 99. If I had to say one way or the other, I don't think it's going to come together. I'm significantly more interested in the wave behind it.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EVEN IF
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW
SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well, it still looks that they are still going to fly out in the system.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm counting the low levels as between 850 and 7-600. Mid levels is closer to the 500mb level, at least in the way I think of them

[Normandy]

I really don't see why people suddenly thing the chances of this developing are lower today than yesterday, especially considering the fact it is much better organized at this point that it has ever been.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well i think overall the system is better organized in structure, it just needs lots and lots of convection and needs to maintain that.

[philnyc]

I'm counting the low levels as between 850 and 7-600. Mid levels is closer to the 500mb level, at least in the way I think of them

Thanks, Derek. That makes sense to me. Thanks for the insight. These disturbances bob up and down in various sectors as they try to develop, so where the shear levels are is critical to understanding them.

[fox13weather]

I really don't see why people suddenly thing the chances of this developing are lower today than yesterday, especially considering the fact it is much better organized at this point that it has ever been.

much better organized?? It is at best, a disorganized tropical wave. If it is better organized tonight, what was it last night?? A 1030mb high?

[hurricanefloyd5]

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EVEN IF
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW
SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Normandy]

I really don't see why people suddenly thing the chances of this developing are lower today than yesterday, especially considering the fact it is much better organized at this point that it has ever been.

much better organized?? It is at best, a disorganized tropical wave. If it is better organized tonight, what was it last night?? A 1030mb high?

Yes it is better organized.

Day 1: It was imbedded in the ITCZ
Day 2: Thunderstorms began consolidating
Day 3: It produced a vigourous MLC
Day 4 (Today): it has a Low Level Circulation.

Thats improved organization.

So, to answer your question, no it wasn't a 1030 mb high. It was a 1012 mb high....or is that called low pressure? Wait.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just refreshed the IR2 floater, and there is some kind of circulation now under/just East of the new convective blob.



Of course, is there a model anyway that carries either a closed low or even the low or mid level vort max with this anywhere North of the Yucatan/extreme Southern BOC?


At this point, in my opinion as a dedicated amateur, this looks almost as good as Invest 96 did a couple of weeks back, when it probably was close to being a TD, before it ingested the SAL and died.

[HURAKAN]

I noticed that. I would like a pro to comment on it. It looks like some kind of circulation under the convection.

[Stormcenter]

I really don't see why people suddenly thing the chances of this developing are lower today than yesterday, especially considering the fact it is much better organized at this point that it has ever been.

much better organized?? It is at best, a disorganized tropical wave. If it is better organized tonight, what was it last night?? A 1030mb high?

Yes. Were you not paying attention?

Day 1: It was imbedded in the ITCZ
Day 2: Thunderstorms began consolidating
Day 3: It produced a vigourous MLC
Day 4 (Today): it has a Low Level Circulation.

Thats improved organization.

I'm sorry but it does not look impressive at the moment.
It actually looked better last night.
Anyway that is not to say that it won't develop sometime in the future in the Carribean.

[Normandy]

Well looks really aren't what im discussing.

Last night it didn't have a LLC, and tonight it appears it might have something close to one. However last night it had more convection.

Again im not saying this looks like a TD, im just making a case that its probably the best organized its been (even though its not that well organized now).

[NONAME]

I really don't see why people suddenly thing the chances of this developing are lower today than yesterday, especially considering the fact it is much better organized at this point that it has ever been.

much better organized?? It is at best, a disorganized tropical wave. If it is better organized tonight, what was it last night?? A 1030mb high?

Yes it is better organized. Were you not paying attention?

Day 1: It was imbedded in the ITCZ
Day 2: Thunderstorms began consolidating
Day 3: It produced a vigourous MLC
Day 4 (Today): it has a Low Level Circulation.

Thats improved organization.

I Don't get this why do people keep arguing with the pro-Mets, I used to thing they were wrong when they say the thing they do but then I realize that they were right now I trust what they say and they do know more then we do so we should thing more highly of there opinion.

[HURAKAN]

31/2345 UTC 11.9N 53.2W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Normandy]

^I was just matching his sarcasm.

Although I still do believe its better organized tonight then last night, despite it having more convection last night. Your entitled to disagree with pro mets all you want....yet i do value their opinions (including fox13weathers).

[SouthFloridawx]

Ahh.. should definitely lower shear in the next couple of days in the Caribbean.

[skysummit]

There's a little something different tonight than last night. Last night at this time, the convection was rapidly intensifying....almost sucking up all the moisture it could all at once. It was almost certain that impressive blob would not last through the day today. However, tonight, convection seems to slowly be increasing near what looks to be a circulation at one layer or another. This may be better for it to develop.....SLOWLY. It's not an "over kill" like it was last night.