Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

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GeneratorPower
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#481 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:30 pm

I suppose we'll see.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#482 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:30 pm

yes gator...and here we'll see the people jump back on the system....the same ones who completely wrote it off all day today. It does have a long ways to go, but it's got a lot going for it. A slower convective increase compared to the blow up last night is better for slow organization in this situation...IMO.
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#483 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:31 pm

Gatorcane, your post seems to indicate that the diurnal minimum would make it better. Do you mean maximum?
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#484 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:33 pm

sorry I mean diurnal maximum

the system is DEFINITELY getting its act together now again. When environmental conditions are near ideal how could it not?

Do we have a buoy report out there? I would like to see the data.

I can't believe we can say this is simply a tropical wave. Just look at the sat motion of it....
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#485 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:34 pm

gatorcane wrote:sorry I mean diurnal maximum - I've been inundated with my MBA work -- so I'm back now for a bit...

the system is DEFINITELY getting its act together now again. When environmental conditions are near ideal how could it not?


Why systems don't form in ideal conditions and do form in hostile conditions, at least sometimes, is what makes all this interesting to me. There is quite a bit about cyclogenesis that man does not understand. Weather is a beautiful thing.
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#486 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:38 pm

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Berwick Bay

Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#487 Postby Berwick Bay » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:40 pm

Skysummit said

yes gator...and here we'll see the people jump back on the system....the same ones who completely wrote it off all day today. It does have a long ways to go, but it's got a lot going for it. A slower convective increase compared to the blow up last night is better for slow organization in this situation...IMO.
_____________________________________________________
So true Sky. I know that its really human nature to swing back and forth with every little change that becomes visible. And you might notice that the pro mets were just as guilty as the amateurs in this regard. I think a big problem is switching from that June-July mindset to the mid season one. In June-July the odds are so stacked against any development, but thats not necessarily the case now. Looking long term, if conditions are at least neutral for development, then you have a much better chance of seeing it than you did just two weeks ago.
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