Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Ivanhater]

actually im at home off campus for now but hey hey hey
i want to see the convectione explode!!! cmon baby!!!!!

i got convection developing in my brain...heck yea...and
Im lovin it

I will openly admit that I have gone insane!!!!

Lol..you are high!...its doesnt look good but sure looks a lot better than earlier today!

[MiamiensisWx]

Stop fighting! Let's look for our next area of interest. Our next INVEST may originate from this wave. It is exiting Africa...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96601

I wanted to add some brevity to this lively discourse!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

More convection now than earlier:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html
Or so it seems

[marcane_1973]

Thank God I am part of his team.

Todd Ferebee

You can read about me in the HIRT TEAM LINK...I am the one going to FSU for Grad School..

Supp Todd. Just read up on ya. Glad to meet a HIRT TEAM memeber. Im sure you were very bored last year huh? Just like everybody else lol Looks like it wont be too much longer till you finally get to pack up and get out there in all that good excitement. I have a feeling you are going to be one busy dude especially during the month of September. All you guys are awesome and I enjoy watching you on your LIVE feeds.

[philnyc]

Well darn, I just spent 5 minutes replying why I thought 99L would not develope any time soon and hit submit and it said the topic was locked..

99L looks less orgainzed tonight than it did yesterday morning and evening. Sure there is still evidence of some mid-level spin but convection is far less numerous tonight. 99L is having a difficult time with dry air. Dry air kills off a TC almost as fast as strong shear. 99L has been gulping its share of dry air since it came to our attention the other day. Since the dry air should be an issue for 99L the next few days, I doubt a TD developes any time soon. Perhaps once 99L gets toward the western Caribbean contitions might be more favorable for development. Of course ole MGC has been wrong my share of time, but thats the way I see it tonight. Lets keep the debate going, it is fun to share opinions......MGC

OK MGC, let's keep it going...

AFM and Derek have both said that dry air is now less and less of an issue with this wave. Here is the latest MIDDLE LEVEL WATER VAPOR from CIMSS:


Look at the small amount of DRIER AIR (40-60% RH) - the darker pocket to the northwest of the wave. That is quickly diminishing in size. And then look ahead into the Caribbean. The mid levels are moist. A lot of posts put up the UPPER level water vapor satellite in here, when UPPER level water vapor content has LITTLE AT ALL to do with tropical development.
So no matter what else we post in here, the current situation for this wave does not include problems with DRY AIR.

Just to bolster that point, here is the current (08-01 00Z or 8PM EDT this evening) mid level moisture chart in the area:


Here is the forecast for 1PM EDT tomorrow (Wednesday):


And here is the forecast for 08-02 at 00Z, or Wednesday evening:


Notice how gradually it moistens up ahead of the wave - 60% or better RH is in front of it? Mid level moisture is constantly changing, and in this case, it's improving for the environment into which this wave is moving. Some of the mositure is being forced in ahead by the wave itself, but it doesn't matter. The images show that DRY AIR IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM FOR THIS WAVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. I just don't think it gets analysed correctly most of the times in here...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I can see from that graphic that the dry air has really diminished..

[HouTXmetro]

I think I see a new pop up of convection getting ready to pulse

[Normandy]

Early Morning Thoughts,
Its looking a bit ragged....convection doesn't seem to be refiring on the level it was yesterday, but there is still time, but not much left in this diurnal max. What I do note is a strong circulation, and it seems like its a bit more than an MLC...can't be sure until visibles come out however. Id be willing to bet that their is some weak surface lows somewhere in this disorganized mess.

Moisture is increasing ahead of the wave, and its shear forecast looks great. One problem it might run into is land interaction with SA, its still fairly low in lattitude and if it doesn't develop soon it might not at all due to land interaction.

[tailgater]

This is a pretty cool loop also.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... inTPW.html
Also note the moisture in the eastern GOM.

[philnyc]

Early Morning Thoughts,
Its looking a bit ragged....convection doesn't seem to be refiring on the level it was yesterday, but there is still time, but not much left in this diurnal max. What I do note is a strong circulation, and it seems like its a bit more than an MLC...can't be sure until visibles come out however. Id be willing to bet that their is some weak surface lows somewhere in this disorganized mess.

Moisture is increasing ahead of the wave, and its shear forecast looks great. One problem it might run into is land interaction with SA, its still fairly low in lattitude and if it doesn't develop soon it might not at all due to land interaction.

Good point. Land interaction is often forgotten about.

[hicksta]

i think we are gonna have to wait a day or two to know for sure. then we can decide if its a fluke or something to be worried about but until that lifes good

[HouTXmetro]

Convection is refiring in the last few frames over what appears to be a circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[philnyc]

Convection is refiring in the last few frames over what appears to be a circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Although I thought it might refire, don't you wish you knew everything those NHC guys know? God, do I wish I was working there! Ahh, every day going into work would be a pleasure. If you're someone who can't stop following this, it must be so cool to do it for a living...

[HouTXmetro]

Do you see the new burst at 12.5N, 55W?

[Meso]

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N53W IS ABOUT 375 NM E OF THE S WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT AND THUS THE SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUD DEBRIS EXTENDING FROM 9N TO 16N
BETWEEN 49W AND 57W.

[HouTXmetro]

The structure is starting to look somewhat better despite not much convection. Now I see why the NHC hasn't given up.

[Cyclenall]

I have been reading through many pages (over 35 at least) and wow. I would really enjoy for this to form into a TS+. I think I have seen it all within the last 4 threads.

Im really high on 99L and on chantal and oh boy look at that just east of 99L
and then just off the coast of africa...gosh regardless of the outcome I'm high...

X30!!

[MiamiensisWx]

The structure is starting to look somewhat better despite not much convection. Now I see why the NHC hasn't given up.

It really drives the point home - when we think we know more than the TPC, the facts win out in the end to their benefit. Look at 98L (Chantal). People were writing it off - then we complained about the TPC's slow upgrade. When it was upgraded, the data clearly supported the NHC's "wait and see" position. Regardless of the Proenza issue, they are performing nicely in 2007! Amazingly, people hinted that Chantal should have not been named! The data indicated the presence of a solid TS/STS. The NHC wins in the end. They are the best...

[philnyc]

The structure is starting to look somewhat better despite not much convection. Now I see why the NHC hasn't given up.

It really drives the point home - when we think we know more than the TPC, the facts win out in the end to their benefit. Look at 98L (Chantal). People were writing it off - then we complained about the TPC's slow upgrade. When it was upgraded, the data clearly supported the NHC's "wait and see" position. Regardless of the Proenza issue, they are performing nicely in 2007! Amazingly, people hinted that Chantal should have not been named! The data indicated the presence of a solid TS/STS. The NHC wins in the end. They are the best...

You said it!

[Huckster]

How many days are we gonna have to put up with this up and down nonsense from this wave? Every night, right before bed, it comes to life! Then when I wake up...POOF!!! it's gone. The structure of this system looks decent, and once again, convection is firing. Sunday night, Monday night, will Tuesday night be the charm? This wave needs to either take a ___ or get off the pot!