MGC wrote:Well darn, I just spent 5 minutes replying why I thought 99L would not develope any time soon and hit submit and it said the topic was locked..
99L looks less orgainzed tonight than it did yesterday morning and evening. Sure there is still evidence of some mid-level spin but convection is far less numerous tonight. 99L is having a difficult time with dry air. Dry air kills off a TC almost as fast as strong shear. 99L has been gulping its share of dry air since it came to our attention the other day. Since the dry air should be an issue for 99L the next few days, I doubt a TD developes any time soon. Perhaps once 99L gets toward the western Caribbean contitions might be more favorable for development. Of course ole MGC has been wrong my share of time, but thats the way I see it tonight. Lets keep the debate going, it is fun to share opinions......MGC
OK MGC, let's keep it going...
AFM and Derek have both said that dry air is now less and less of an issue with this wave. Here is the latest MIDDLE LEVEL WATER VAPOR from CIMSS:

Look at the small amount of DRIER AIR (40-60% RH) - the darker pocket to the northwest of the wave. That is quickly diminishing in size. And then look ahead into the Caribbean. The mid levels are moist. A lot of posts put up the UPPER level water vapor satellite in here, when UPPER level water vapor content has LITTLE AT ALL to do with tropical development.
So no matter what else we post in here, the current situation for this wave does not include problems with DRY AIR.
Just to bolster that point, here is the current (08-01 00Z or 8PM EDT this evening) mid level moisture chart in the area:
Here is the forecast for 1PM EDT tomorrow (Wednesday):

And here is the forecast for 08-02 at 00Z, or Wednesday evening:

Notice how gradually it moistens up ahead of the wave - 60% or better RH is in front of it? Mid level moisture is constantly changing, and in this case, it's improving for the environment into which this wave is moving. Some of the mositure is being forced in ahead by the wave itself, but it doesn't matter. The images show that DRY AIR IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM FOR THIS WAVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. I just don't think it gets analysed correctly most of the times in here...