Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[storms in NC]

Can we say with high confidence at this point that what ever becomes of 99L, it will generally move W and not be a threat to FL.

I would say that right now. who knows at this time where it is going to go.

[vaffie]

pressure in Barbados down to 1010 mb. wind up to 30 mph.

[wxman57]

88 kts at D5 !!!

Right, over land, too. Not likely in the mountains of southern Mexico.

[Aquawind]

Kind of looks like it did yesterday but a little better.. excellent rotation. Widespread convection..nothing to deep and not consolidated though.. More cells are firing up. I am a bit surprised they flew but they need to get a little practice in for what's ahead.. SHIPS

[Stormtrack03]

I saw the TCFA, but I see that must be old news lol.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html



Barbados observations.30 mph and 1010 mbs.That is the thunderstorm over them that we see in the images.

[Ivanhater]

As we have seen all day...convection continues to pop ....

[NONAME]

Remeber that recon has hardly been near the aparrent center yet just on the barbados side they have been much else yet.

[Cyclenall]

1005.8 mb pressure reported by recon.

A TD? Between this thing,and the one in the GOM, we may have a tag team of Dean and Erin

I just thought of something...remember Bonnie and Charley?

I can't even keep up with all this reading. I must have read a 250 page book's worth of reading in less then 5 hours from all these threads.

[MiamiensisWx]

A new convective burst is occurring near Barbados. Grantley Adams is reporting a decreasing pressure (1010 mbar) and E winds at 30 mph. The system has produced good convection throughout the day - the diurnal maximum is coming within a few hours. I think I see a broad sfc circulation with two rotations: the one near 11.5N/58.5W and another one near 13N/59W. Look at this loop. I think the good inflow is a sign of a good exhaust system - it has exhibited good structure. I think it will take some time before a defined LLC becomes established - the system is surviving in spite of a poorly-defined sfc low. I think this is more proof for further development down the road. I'm sharing my thoughts. What do you think? I think it is not a TD, but I do believe it will develop within three days.

[jrod]

I am still convinced it is an open wave. While it does have strong winds, which squalls are capable of producing Im not going to believe there are any west winds unless the recon flight proves otherwise. The pressure is low enough to keep this thing alive and it may be trying to pull together. At the 5 pm advisory I expect at most a tropical disturbance statement.

[wxman57]

I am still convinced it is an open wave. While it does have strong winds, which squalls are capable of producing Im not going to believe there are any west winds unless the recon flight proves otherwise. The pressure is low enough to keep this thing alive and it may be trying to pull together. At the 5 pm advisory I expect at most a tropical disturbance statement.

I agree, no evidence of a TD yet. If that 1002.7mb pressure were real with pressures 1010-1011 all around it, winds would be above TS force. But recon keeps reporting light and variable.

[katfan]

I think its a tropical depression. What does Derek think.

24 hours and Im going to see katharine mcphee in concert again. I also hope to meet the brunette babe too!!!!

[jrod]

I agree, no evidence of a TD yet. If that 1002.7mb pressure were real with pressures 1010-1011 all around it, winds would be above TS force. But recon keeps reporting light and variable.

Where is the 1002.7mb coming from? I noticed the vortex message was still from Barry with a 1002mb pressure.

[Ivanhater]

I am still convinced it is an open wave. While it does have strong winds, which squalls are capable of producing Im not going to believe there are any west winds unless the recon flight proves otherwise. The pressure is low enough to keep this thing alive and it may be trying to pull together. At the 5 pm advisory I expect at most a tropical disturbance statement.

I agree, no evidence of a TD yet. If that 1002.7mb pressure were real with pressures 1010-1011 all around it, winds would be above TS force. But recon keeps reporting light and variable.

True..but wind speed is a delayed reaction to pressure drop...If the pressure is just now dropping the wind speed will reflect later...but I agree this is not a TD now..but I agree with the NHC..it is on its way

[Derek Ortt]

not a TD based upon the data

[canegrl04]

1005.8 mb pressure reported by recon.

A TD? Between this thing,and the one in the GOM, we may have a tag team of Dean and Erin

I just thought of something...remember Bonnie and Charley?

I can't even keep up with all this reading. I must have read a 250 page book's worth of reading in less then 5 hours from all these threads.

Oh yes.I remember Bonnie and Charley. Charley was the one that mega charged himself in less than an hours time before making landfall over Florida.Caught the NHC off guard

[katfan]

not a TD based upon the data

Is it possible Mr. Ortt this can become a major system in the gulf?

I wanna ask kat out tommorow!

[Aquawind]

TD? notta.. Those obs in the islands could easily be skewed from local storms. Needs alot more deep convection to consolidate imo..

[Derek Ortt]

lets not worrya bout the GOM yet... that is far too complicated and is dependent upon what the GOM system decides to pull