Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Stormcenter]

Bob Breck (LOL) just said he thinks the low nearest the mouth of the Mississippi River will win out, slowly organize and drift north toward the MGC.

Why the laughter?

[T-man]

I think he might be right, if that's what he said. I don't watch BB much anymore. His credibility is shot in these parts, hence the laughter.

[Kennethb]

I don't know why recon did not just fly out this evening. By the time they took off and got to cruising altitude, they would be near the low. They could fly out after supper and return in time to watch the early news.

[senorpepr]

I don't know why recon did not just fly out this evening. By the time they took off and got to cruising altitude, they would be near the low. They could fly out after supper and return in time to watch the early news.

If I remember correctly, the crew needs 24 hours before they can being a mission. They can't just go on a drop of a hat. Besides, two crews are already away from Biloxi (if I'm not mistaken).

[Stormcenter]

Maybe just maybe the beginnings of something south of Mobile Bay.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[sevenleft]

I don't know why recon did not just fly out this evening. By the time they took off and got to cruising altitude, they would be near the low. They could fly out after supper and return in time to watch the early news.

Probably because there is nothing out there worth investigating at the moment.

[jaxfladude]

Is seems that the invests are not becoming much more than a mod TS at most.....

[Janie2006]

Strictly my opinion, of course, but here goes...

If anything significant does organize I think it will move into SE Louisiana or the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Due to the set-up of the situation, the most significant rainfall could fall on the eastern side of the low. Given the timeframe and proximity of the system to the coastline, I'd be quite surprised if it formed into a weak TS. A tropical depression certainly isn't out of the question. On the other hand, we need to be on our guard because I've seen systems organize very quickly in the northern Gulf. Not seeing that situation here, but....still. YMMV.

We do need the rain because we're still behind on our rainfall. We've gained quite a bit of ground, but we need more.

[skysummit]

I think he might be right, if that's what he said. I don't watch BB much anymore. His credibility is shot in these parts, hence the laughter.

Yes, that's what I meant. By the laughter, I wasn't laughing at his forecast for the Gulf, just the idea that Bob said it. Not many people listen to him with the confidence they had prior to Katrina.

For instance, concerning 99L, tonight on the 9pm local news, he said the LLC could be forming to the north under the new convection (ok, that's not that bad). Then he said it could turn north, re-curve out to sea, and never affect anyone. (That brings back memories)

[crazycajuncane]

Quote Rob Perillo KATC.com weather blog:

An interesting situation continues to develop over Louisiana. A trough of low pressure is festering across the region keeping showers and storms in the forecast. A weak elongated area of surface low pressure has developed south of the Mississippi Coast and just east of Louisiana. This feature may remain nearly stationary through early tomorrow but may begin to drift westward for tomorrow night and Friday. So we are keeping high rain chances in the forecast through the next few days. There is a slight chance that we may some development with this low if a true closed circulation develops and there is the chance that we could see a depression form. While I’m not expected a major event, there is a fairly good possibility that we could see very heavy rains through Saturday. The large scale computer models have had a hard time dealing with this feature, while our in house mesoscale model (that’s available on-line on our weather page) has been consistent with development and drift to the west but the model may have the system too far offshore. And if you look at our wind forecast maps it could get quite breezy Friday and Saturday. For now, we’ll say that there will be very healthy rain chances with the threat of 3-5” of rain through Friday into Saturday. But there is the possibility that a 5-10 inch rain event will unfold for someone anywhere from our part of the world to the Florida Panhandle…so as we say stay tuned for further updates. More stable weather should move back into the region for the latter part of the weekend or early next week. :

Well whether it becomes anything or not.... MORE RAIN! I think we've seen enough rain this summer. I'm actually more interested in this feature than 99L.

[stormy70]

Over here in Mobile they are just watching and telling us to bring our umbrellas. Just something to keep an eye on.

[TampaFl]

Radar loop from NWS Tampa /SFWMD site shows what appears to be a mid level circulation near 28 N & 84 W. It appears to be drifting east. more heavy rain for the west Coast of Florida . Thoughts & comments welcomed.

[caneman]

yep, I saw that to. No pressure falls just yet. Anybody have rainfall rates for this area brroken down by city? I know RONjon had posted 3" officially yesterday. We've been getting pounded by rain for a couple of days now. Just goes to show you that you don't need a TD, Ts or Hurricane to cuase problems. Intersting in that 24-36 hours ago we had alot of lightning but none sense. IS it trying to develop tropically? Current weather sure seems that way.

[skysummit]

What are your local mets along the Florida Coast saying? Are they saying any type of movement? Local mets up here are saying possible slow development, then should drift north toward the MGC. I'm just curious to see if there are any other forecasts.

[tailgater]

Yes very wet morning for Fla west coast with that mid level pushing ENE. I love that radar site. Low south of MSGC maybe trying to close off today.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true
Question, TampaFL how do you post those animated loops?

[skysummit]

Have you ever seen such a straight frontal boundary/trough? LOL That's straight!

[caneman]

Sky,

I don't much follow TV weather. It's hard to when we seem to get and know stuff before they do.

[skysummit]

Sky,

I don't much follow TV weather. It's hard to when we seem to get and know some before they do.

I hear ya, and agree. I barely ever watch them...mostly for entertainment purposes. I was just wondering if there any conflicting forecasts along the Gulf Coast. (like there wouldn't be )

[dizzyfish]

Met in Tampa this morning was trying to show a spin on the radar loop he was showing. I personally couldn't see the spin. Anyway, about 1-1/2" here at home so far.
I think he said the blob would shift north.

[flwxwatcher]

On the Tampa Long range Radar it looked like a spin right around 28 N and 85 W.