Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

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Cyclone1
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#361 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:37 am

skysummit wrote:What are your local mets along the Florida Coast saying? Are they saying any type of movement? Local mets up here are saying possible slow development, then should drift north toward the MGC. I'm just curious to see if there are any other forecasts.

That's about what we're hearing in the Tampa Bay area also.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#362 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:55 am

Looks like low pressure trying to form about 100 miles west of Crystal River. It could be a MLC. Need to get some pressure readings to be sure. I know a 1010 mb low is located further west.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#363 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:01 am

Looks to be a MLC on the radar signature. Pressure rising at NE GOM buoys.

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
29.2N 88.2W 81 84 60/ 10/ 16 1011.5R 2/ 4
28.8N 85.6W 78 84 70/ 12/ 14 1011.8R 2/ 6 2/ 6
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#364 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:18 am

Yep just as forecasted here the boundry has lifted north and taken the rain with it..
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#365 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:41 am

I dont think they will send a plane out..i dont see where they would look...
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#366 Postby MGC » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:57 am

No need for recon today....MGC
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#367 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:58 am

A low has formed, and convection is hanging on. But it's definitely not near TD status. No recon needed.
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#368 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:01 am

If it sits over the water another day or two and convection is still persisting, I bet we'll have something to watch. But right now, recon would be absolutely useless.
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Re:

#369 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:09 am

Cyclone1 wrote:A low has formed, and convection is hanging on. But it's definitely not near TD status. No recon needed.


Where exactly is the location of the low?
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Re: Re:

#370 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:12 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:A low has formed, and convection is hanging on. But it's definitely not near TD status. No recon needed.


Where exactly is the location of the low?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Check the box that says fronts.
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Re: Re:

#371 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:17 am

Cyclone1 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:A low has formed, and convection is hanging on. But it's definitely not near TD status. No recon needed.


Where exactly is the location of the low?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Check the box that says fronts.


I did but nothing is showing up in the GOM.
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#372 Postby Chacor » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:17 am

Recon cancelled.
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Re: Re:

#373 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:19 am

Stormcenter wrote:I did but nothing is showing up in the GOM.


There's a little L symbol. That's the low. 1010.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#374 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:20 am

I pay relatively little attention to TV "personalities" unless they are trained meteorologists. Anyone can read a teleprompter or grab the latest NWS forecast off the newswire.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#375 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:25 am

883
NOUS42 KNHC 021415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT THU 02 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-071

3. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 03/1730Z
D. 30.0N 86.0W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
5. REMARKS: TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM FOR 02/1800Z
AND 03/1200Z AND 1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1330Z.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#376 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:30 am

Just keep that rain coming, I love it.
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#377 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:30 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Just keep that rain coming, I love it.


Me, too. Rain in the morning? Isn't it great?
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#378 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:31 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Just keep that rain coming, I love it.



They say were done for 5 days..Buy it?
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#379 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:35 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Just keep that rain coming, I love it.

They say were done for 5 days..Buy it?


Nah... I don't buy it, it's summer time!
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

#380 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:37 am

From NWS Tallahassee morning AFD:

OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OVER THE NE GULF REVEAL THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO VERY WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE FIRST ONE JUST WEST OF TAMPA NEAR 27N85W AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS NEAR 27N89W.
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