Invest 99L Thread #6

[Ola]

You mean like the FOX guy who joked about Santa Claus? I'll agree it was concise, but informational?

That Fox guy has actually made the best posts on here the last 4 days.

[Air Force Met]

All 99L has to have to produce convection is a convergent asymptote

I think my uncle's horse died of that!! Seriously,can you please explain that term?

Thanks

It's where air is converging. A cold front is an example...or a tropical wave.

[miamicanes177]

Oh...we're here...and some even said this morning that a plane shouldn't be wasted on this because there was nothing at the sfc...while others were proclaiming it TS Dean.

So...I ask you...when you won't listen in the first place...why bother?

Exactly...which is why I didn't. It was very obvious to the trained eye (and the pro's and VERY good amatuers on this site said so) that there was nothing there...and it was pretty obvious it was going to pulse again...but you can't argue with passion...nor can you reason with it...nor do I need to.

The best hurricane experts in the world at the NHC agreed that recon should investigate. Are you saying the NHC sent recon because of passion for something to develop? Surely they would not do that. Indeed, recon had to fly because it was showing signs of significant organization and the right decision was made.

[Weatherfreak14]

Now that the thunderstorms are dying out at the end of the diurnal minimum, we should see the pro mets showing up again to point out the weakening.

It's funny how they show up when systems are unorganized or weakening, and are nowhere to be found when their strengthening

Oh...we're here...and some even said this morning that a plane shouldn't be wasted on this because there was nothing at the sfc...while others were proclaiming it TS Dean.

So...I ask you...when you won't listen in the first place...why bother?

Exactly...which is why I didn't. It was very obvious to the trained eye (and the pro's and VERY good amatuers on this site said so) that there was nothing there...and it was pretty obvious it was going to pulse again...but you can't argue with passion...nor can you reason with it...nor do I need to.

Well, said Air Force Met. When a Pro Met comments on here i take it with great respect, because they have a degree in metorology and some day i will too. Ok sometimes Mets are wrong or make a mistake, but they are well trained they know what they are talking about.

[philnyc]

Now that the thunderstorms are dying out at the end of the diurnal minimum, we should see the pro mets showing up again to point out the weakening.

It's funny how they show up when systems are unorganized or weakening, and are nowhere to be found when their strengthening

Oh...we're here...and some even said this morning that a plane shouldn't be wasted on this because there was nothing at the sfc...while others were proclaiming it TS Dean.

So...I ask you...when you won't listen in the first place...why bother?

Exactly...which is why I didn't. It was very obvious to the trained eye (and the pro's and VERY good amatuers on this site said so) that there was nothing there...and it was pretty obvious it was going to pulse again...but you can't argue with passion...nor can you reason with it...nor do I need to.

Then why did they send a plane? This a very serious question meant professionally. I am absolutely serious and am not trying to be funny. I enjoy reading you.

[astrosbaseball22]

hmm.....i want to see what happens at 10

[Derek Ortt]

the flat edge of the outflow from the earlier storms is indicative of approaching shear.

Also, NHC does make mistakes, while they are very good, they are not perfect. Therefore, the criticism from the kids about the mets here disagreeing with the NHC at times (which is a minority of the time if you go back through the posts in a given season... probably 10-20% of the time), is unfounded. Scientists disagree with each other at times when looking at the sme data (see the global warming debate)

And what really gets me PO'd is that the kids only rip into the pro mets when they disagree with the NHC by forecasting against development when NHC has development, or forecasting a storm to go somewhere other than their home town, when the NHC track has it there

[Air Force Met]

Then why did they send a plane? This a very serious question meant professionally. I am absolutely serious and am not trying to be funny. I enjoy reading you.

To be better safe than sorry. Err on the side of caution. BUt it was obvious it was not yet a tropical storm

[alan1961]

the comeback kid wont be coming back, he's finnished!, i'll be astounded if this thing survives another night, getting attacked from s america with shear, convection gone, getting unfavourable up the road, its done for!

[RL3AO]

I will say it is done for when 1 of the following 2 things happen:

1) It goes over land
2) It looks like it does now at sunrise.

[philnyc]

the flat edge of the outflow from the earlier storms is indicative of approaching shear.

Absolutely. I've always noticed that with tropical cyclones of any strength from weak to cat 5, and you can see it with this one now. Nice to see the real world agree with the forecast one.

[philnyc]

the comeback kid wont be coming back, he's finnished!, i'll be astounded if this thing survives another night, getting attacked from s america with shear, convection gone, getting unfavourable up the road, its done for!

You're on the record. We'll talk tomorrow...

[miamicanes177]

the flat edge of the outflow from the earlier storms is indicative of approaching shear.

Also, NHC does make mistakes, while they are very good, they are not perfect. Therefore, the criticism from the kids about the mets here disagreeing with the NHC at times (which is a minority of the time if you go back through the posts in a given season... probably 10-20% of the time), is unfounded. Scientists disagree with each other at times when looking at the sme data (see the global warming debate)

And what really gets me PO'd is that the kids only rip into the pro mets when they disagree with the NHC by forecasting against development when NHC has development, or forecasting a storm to go somewhere other than their home town, when the NHC track has it there

Stop calling us "kids" and maybe you'll be shown some respect yourself, son.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Umm..AFM,Ortt, MW and 57 make this board what it is from a professional standpoint..Period..Without them there would be nothing but wish-casting and basic flipflopping model like forecasts..(there are other good ones unnamed both pro and amature)

[TheShrimper]

Normandy, you have made some insightful posts on this board and they are read, welcomed and absorbed. Respect others that post, and get a clue to as whether certain posts are meant to be taken seriously, or issued just to momentarily curtail all the anxiety that might be prevelant at the time. And most importantly, you do not know the credentials of some that offer thier opinions on the board, it might amaze you. Just because some haven't been afforded the rights to initiate a topic heading on the Tropical Analysis Forum, does not exclude them from understanding what the hell is going on, maybe more so than some that have been granted that luxury. No more cheerleading please.TheShrimper.

[Jevo]

Very good points Derek!!! My only suggestion is that Storm2K should add verbage to their disclaimer that looks something like Before you read a landfall forecast by someone other than a pro-met or an approved analyst please look at where thet person lives and take that into account. Especially if that forecast goes against every model and the official forecast

[alan1961]

the comeback kid wont be coming back, he's finnished!, i'll be astounded if this thing survives another night, getting attacked from s america with shear, convection gone, getting unfavourable up the road, its done for!

You're on the record. We'll talk tomorrow...

will be a pleasure

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

320
WHXX01 KWBC 030105
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC FRI AUG 3 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070803 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070803  0000   070803  1200   070804  0000   070804  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  69.3W   15.2N  74.1W   16.6N  79.1W   17.9N  83.7W
BAMD    13.6N  69.3W   14.4N  72.7W   15.3N  76.3W   16.1N  80.2W
BAMM    13.6N  69.3W   14.8N  73.6W   16.1N  77.9W   17.2N  82.3W
LBAR    13.6N  69.3W   14.6N  73.8W   15.9N  78.3W   17.3N  82.6W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          44KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          44KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070805  0000   070806  0000   070807  0000   070808  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N  87.7W   20.9N  94.3W   23.2N  98.5W   25.4N 101.4W
BAMD    16.9N  83.9W   18.2N  91.1W   18.8N  96.9W   18.7N 101.6W
BAMM    18.2N  86.3W   20.2N  93.2W   22.1N  97.9W   23.5N 101.4W
LBAR    19.2N  86.5W   22.8N  92.7W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        60KTS          70KTS          80KTS          86KTS
DSHP        60KTS          48KTS          44KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  69.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  23KT
LATM12 =  12.8N LONM12 =  64.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  23KT
LATM24 =  12.5N LONM24 =  59.9W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Downdraft]

I'm the first one to admit I ate the crow today and I made sure I had two helpings. Derek you were right on the money this morning and you were absolutely right. It's great to be an interested enthusiast but without you and the other pro's we would so easily be swept off the tracks. The feathers by the way make good toothpicks.

[cheezyWXguy]

the comeback kid wont be coming back, he's finnished!, i'll be astounded if this thing survives another night, getting attacked from s america with shear, convection gone, getting unfavourable up the road, its done for!

You're on the record. We'll talk tomorrow...

will be a pleasure

you kidding? its about to hit the duirnal max...i admit, if it does not refire overnight, it maybe over..however it probably will and well all be saying TS Dean in the morning again. another thing...conditions will be favorable up the road...not tomorrow, but when it reaches the W carib the day after, it could come together nicely