Invest 99L Thread #6

[mgpetre]

wxman57 or philnyc,

Do you believe that stealth wave that's popping up SE of the Yucatan will push into the stationary front in the GOM or give this thing more chance of heading farther N than currently expected?

[Normandy]

New frame showing convection firing, which is good news

[Ptarmigan]

Rita was further N than 99L. Passed S of Lower Keys in the FL Starights.

True. If I recall, the wave that spawned Rita was unimpressive.

[CajunMama]

I'm scratching my head trying to make some sense out of this thread. I swear i was in the chatroom with some of the posts. When a serious storm does occur i hope that these threads will contain more vital information instead of the chatter. Just please remember some of us are here to read up on what's happening and so much of this can be said in the chatroom instead of on here. We don't want to have to delete posts like we did last year so hopefully some thought will be given to your reply before you hit the submit key.

[philnyc]

wxman57 or philnyc,

Do you believe that stealth wave that's popping up SE of the Yucatan will push into the stationary front in the GOM or give this thing more chance of heading farther N than currently expected?

That stealth wave didn't just pop up. It formed east of the Windward Islands with some convection early this week and then moved westward ahead of our 99L with almost no convection since then. What wxman57 is saying is that it's interesting that that little wave which is now in the northwest Caribbean has finally started getting convection popping up within its circulation. That tells us that there is more instability with little shear in that region.
If by some remote chance it intensified over the GOM, it could certainly cause southwesterly winds behind it that could help steer our 99L more northward. But that's a huge "if", since it would have to really intensify a lot to change steering currents. Nobody is forecasting that.
The biggest clue from the convection popping within that wave is, as I said, a beter environment for 99L ahead...

[srainhoutx]

Does appear that new storms are in fact firing and shear is easing up a bit. Could make for an interesting morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[mgpetre]

I'm scratching my head trying to make some sense out of this thread. I swear i was in the chatroom with some of the posts. When a serious storm does occur i hope that these threads will contain more vital information instead of the chatter. Just please remember some of us are here to read up on what's happening and so much of this can be said in the chatroom instead of on here. We don't want to have to delete posts like we did last year so hopefully some thought will be given to your reply before you hit the submit key.

You are coming here for vital information about a storm that is days away? Obviously, this storm is no immediate threat to anyone and if you want the "chatter" to die down then all you would have left is a few people saying this storm is dead and not to worry about it. There are a few of us that still don't believe this is the case. If this storm were a threat or were already a hurricane, sure the talk would be of a completely different nature, but right now it's a borderline depression/wave that has many guessing and others writing it off. If this does develop into something, then those that you blame for chatter were correct and just attempting to keep people alert; if it does not, then the information you seeked was a moot point.

As for what I was asking about as far as the stealth wave. I meant to be clear that when I said popping up I meant the convective resurgence that was occuring. I am curious as to whether that energy may clear some room for 99L or even perhaps hang in that area and add to the energy that will be left of 99L when it comes around. Just more speculation, which I suppose some consider useless; however, if the chatter were to stop for now this thread would be more dead than the wave itself currently appears to be and I don't see how that helps anyone. This still bears watching, correct?

[mgpetre]

Funny thing is they still haven't repositioned the floater for this invest and if it does happen to start popping it will all be out of the picture by morning...

[Normandy]

^Just use the GOES satellite....

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Click on the area to zoom in

[Stormcenter]

New frame showing convection firing, which is good news

Good news?

[Normandy]

^Well, good/bad news? Better?

Bad news for those who do want this to die, good news those who want this to live.

[mgpetre]

^Well, good/bad news? Better?

Bad news for those who do want this to die, good news those who want this to live.

People! We are here because we love the weather and our earth that produces it. It is not a terrible thing to root a storm on. People that chase tornadoes want tornadoes to occur, they don't want them to kill people but they do want them to occur. Everyone here knows that hurricanes are a very important part of natures cycle in our region, without them the SST's would not normalize as much as they do and eventually bigger ones would occur. Now if someone were to say, "Oh it's headed straight towards Miami and it's a Cat 5, now that's good news." Well, I think we all know that would be pretty messed up, but to root on a storm to gain a little strength is not such a terrible thing. I'll bet you anything there are some newscasters just chomping at the bit to do their stupid little pieces standing in 80mph winds and proving themselves to be the bravest folks on earth right now.

OK, back to the minor wave Looks like the shear is not having the same effect now, any ideas?

[mgpetre]

Wow! It's really starting to pop near the center now. Think it's past the shear or just making one heck of a fight? Guess the next few images will tell.

Still pretty much a due West movement though. I didn't expect that.

[Normandy]

No I know and understand that.....just responding to a question presented to myself...Youll never hear me yell at someone for rooting on development.

[whereverwx]

Now it's time for phase two of the deep convection.

[HouTXmetro]

Why did this convection have to pop up? Now I can't go to bed and I need to be sleep.

[HouTXmetro]

Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.

Thoughts?

[mgpetre]

OK, First things first, if this convection continues then the Shear is no longer an issue for this storm.

Second, if shear is not an issue as many thought would be the case (as in it would be torn apart) are the models going to be drastically different tomorrow?

[mgpetre]

Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.

Thoughts?

Gosh, HouTX, I hate that I'm the one responding to your question, for I am mostly a newbie to the science of Tropical Weather systems; however, I have watched the Weather Channel since the days before it was just another attempt at entertainment (ok, so I hate storm stories and I digress...)

My opinion is that you are on to something, it went through shear and it became a pretty much ALL lower and mid level storm. It is now forming convection over the same old center and still seems to be slowing. One way or another we will have a different animal on our hands tomorrow. If it were to turn a bit more NW, I would be afraid that the ideal conditions for rapid development might be in place... let's just wait and see where she heads.

[RL3AO]

Latter guys. Will see you in the morning.

Guten nacht