Invest 99L Thread #6

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#381 Postby mgpetre » Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:48 pm

wxman57 or philnyc,

Do you believe that stealth wave that's popping up SE of the Yucatan will push into the stationary front in the GOM or give this thing more chance of heading farther N than currently expected?
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#382 Postby Normandy » Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:57 pm

New frame showing convection firing, which is good news
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5316
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#383 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:57 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Rita was further N than 99L. Passed S of Lower Keys in the FL Starights.


True. If I recall, the wave that spawned Rita was unimpressive.
0 likes   

CajunMama
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 10791
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:57 pm
Location: 30.22N, 92.05W Lafayette, LA

#384 Postby CajunMama » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:01 am

I'm scratching my head trying to make some sense out of this thread. I swear i was in the chatroom Image with some of the posts. When a serious storm does occur i hope that these threads will contain more vital information instead of the chatter. Just please remember some of us are here to read up on what's happening and so much of this can be said in the chatroom instead of on here. We don't want to have to delete posts like we did last year so hopefully some thought will be given to your reply before you hit the submit key.
0 likes   

philnyc
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 313
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:14 am
Location: Brooklyn, New York City, New York
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#385 Postby philnyc » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:03 am

mgpetre wrote:wxman57 or philnyc,

Do you believe that stealth wave that's popping up SE of the Yucatan will push into the stationary front in the GOM or give this thing more chance of heading farther N than currently expected?


That stealth wave didn't just pop up. It formed east of the Windward Islands with some convection early this week and then moved westward ahead of our 99L with almost no convection since then. What wxman57 is saying is that it's interesting that that little wave which is now in the northwest Caribbean has finally started getting convection popping up within its circulation. That tells us that there is more instability with little shear in that region.
If by some remote chance it intensified over the GOM, it could certainly cause southwesterly winds behind it that could help steer our 99L more northward. But that's a huge "if", since it would have to really intensify a lot to change steering currents. Nobody is forecasting that.
The biggest clue from the convection popping within that wave is, as I said, a beter environment for 99L ahead...
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#386 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:14 am

Does appear that new storms are in fact firing and shear is easing up a bit. Could make for an interesting morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re:

#387 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:25 am

CajunMama wrote:I'm scratching my head trying to make some sense out of this thread. I swear i was in the chatroom Image with some of the posts. When a serious storm does occur i hope that these threads will contain more vital information instead of the chatter. Just please remember some of us are here to read up on what's happening and so much of this can be said in the chatroom instead of on here. We don't want to have to delete posts like we did last year so hopefully some thought will be given to your reply before you hit the submit key.



You are coming here for vital information about a storm that is days away? Obviously, this storm is no immediate threat to anyone and if you want the "chatter" to die down then all you would have left is a few people saying this storm is dead and not to worry about it. There are a few of us that still don't believe this is the case. If this storm were a threat or were already a hurricane, sure the talk would be of a completely different nature, but right now it's a borderline depression/wave that has many guessing and others writing it off. If this does develop into something, then those that you blame for chatter were correct and just attempting to keep people alert; if it does not, then the information you seeked was a moot point.

As for what I was asking about as far as the stealth wave. I meant to be clear that when I said popping up I meant the convective resurgence that was occuring. I am curious as to whether that energy may clear some room for 99L or even perhaps hang in that area and add to the energy that will be left of 99L when it comes around. Just more speculation, which I suppose some consider useless; however, if the chatter were to stop for now this thread would be more dead than the wave itself currently appears to be and I don't see how that helps anyone. This still bears watching, correct?
0 likes   

mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#388 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:27 am

Funny thing is they still haven't repositioned the floater for this invest and if it does happen to start popping it will all be out of the picture by morning...
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#389 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:33 am

^Just use the GOES satellite....

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Click on the area to zoom in
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re:

#390 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:34 am

Normandy wrote:New frame showing convection firing, which is good news


Good news?
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#391 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:35 am

^Well, good/bad news? Better?

Bad news for those who do want this to die, good news those who want this to live.
0 likes   

mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re:

#392 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:56 am

Normandy wrote:^Well, good/bad news? Better?

Bad news for those who do want this to die, good news those who want this to live.


People! We are here because we love the weather and our earth that produces it. It is not a terrible thing to root a storm on. People that chase tornadoes want tornadoes to occur, they don't want them to kill people but they do want them to occur. Everyone here knows that hurricanes are a very important part of natures cycle in our region, without them the SST's would not normalize as much as they do and eventually bigger ones would occur. Now if someone were to say, "Oh it's headed straight towards Miami and it's a Cat 5, now that's good news." Well, I think we all know that would be pretty messed up, but to root on a storm to gain a little strength is not such a terrible thing. I'll bet you anything there are some newscasters just chomping at the bit to do their stupid little pieces standing in 80mph winds and proving themselves to be the bravest folks on earth right now.

OK, back to the minor wave :) Looks like the shear is not having the same effect now, any ideas?
0 likes   

mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#393 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:59 am

Wow! It's really starting to pop near the center now. Think it's past the shear or just making one heck of a fight? Guess the next few images will tell.

Still pretty much a due West movement though. I didn't expect that.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#394 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:59 am

No I know and understand that.....just responding to a question presented to myself...Youll never hear me yell at someone for rooting on development.
0 likes   

whereverwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1109
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 10:15 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#395 Postby whereverwx » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:02 am

Now it's time for phase two of the deep convection.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#396 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:05 am

Why did this convection have to pop up? Now I can't go to bed and I need to be sleep. :cry:
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#397 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:09 am

Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.

Thoughts?
0 likes   

mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#398 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:11 am

OK, First things first, if this convection continues then the Shear is no longer an issue for this storm.

Second, if shear is not an issue as many thought would be the case (as in it would be torn apart) are the models going to be drastically different tomorrow?
0 likes   

mgpetre
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:20 pm

Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#399 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:15 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.

Thoughts?


Gosh, HouTX, I hate that I'm the one responding to your question, for I am mostly a newbie to the science of Tropical Weather systems; however, I have watched the Weather Channel since the days before it was just another attempt at entertainment (ok, so I hate storm stories and I digress...)

My opinion is that you are on to something, it went through shear and it became a pretty much ALL lower and mid level storm. It is now forming convection over the same old center and still seems to be slowing. One way or another we will have a different animal on our hands tomorrow. If it were to turn a bit more NW, I would be afraid that the ideal conditions for rapid development might be in place... let's just wait and see where she heads.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#400 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:16 am

Latter guys. Will see you in the morning.

Guten nacht
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Lizzytiz1, redingtonbeach and 41 guests