mgpetre wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.
Thoughts?
Gosh, HouTX, I hate that I'm the one responding to your question, for I am mostly a newbie to the science of Tropical Weather systems; however, I have watched the Weather Channel since the days before it was just another attempt at entertainment (ok, so I hate storm stories and I digress...)
My opinion is that you are on to something, it went through shear and it became a pretty much ALL lower and mid level storm. It is now forming convection over the same old center and still seems to be slowing. One way or another we will have a different animal on our hands tomorrow. If it were to turn a bit more NW, I would be afraid that the ideal conditions for rapid development might be in place... let's just wait and see where she heads.
I see zero low level convergence per CIMSS analysis. Winds at 700mb and 850mb are still pegged to be around 30 kt or more... too strong for any LLC to develop without getting ripped apart immediately. The winds at those levels, and thus the storm speed, should slow down in about 60 hr, when this is most likely going to be in the Western Caribbean. Any development will have to wait until then.
Rainband wrote:CajunMama wrote:I'm scratching my head trying to make some sense out of this thread. I swear i was in the chatroom

with some of the posts. When a serious storm does occur i hope that these threads will contain more vital information instead of the chatter. Just please remember some of us are here to read up on what's happening and so much of this can be said in the chatroom instead of on here. We don't want to have to delete posts like we did last year so hopefully some thought will be given to your reply before you hit the submit key.
I agree. I just got home and read all of this. When we do have a real system....... I hope this doesn't happen. Let me re prhase that, We won't let it. My apologies to the Pro Mets.
I don't think the Pro Mets would care about the noise... although I do agree it is a pain for this chatter to cause the discussion to reach 6 threads with 25 pgs. per thread - that's 150 pages with 20 posts each... 3000 posts. And this is for an Invest which has very little hope for promotion for another 3 days.