Invest 99L Thread #6

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HouTXmetro
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#401 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:17 am

mgpetre wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.

Thoughts?


Gosh, HouTX, I hate that I'm the one responding to your question, for I am mostly a newbie to the science of Tropical Weather systems; however, I have watched the Weather Channel since the days before it was just another attempt at entertainment (ok, so I hate storm stories and I digress...)

My opinion is that you are on to something, it went through shear and it became a pretty much ALL lower and mid level storm. It is now forming convection over the same old center and still seems to be slowing. One way or another we will have a different animal on our hands tomorrow. If it were to turn a bit more NW, I would be afraid that the ideal conditions for rapid development might be in place... let's just wait and see where she heads.


Although your answer is insufficient, I appreciate the effort... lol
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#402 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:18 am

Looks like this latest convection is being enhanced by the shear.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#403 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:19 am

I was just taking a closer look at the wider view of this new convection. It seems to be popping along the same line as the storms coming out of Nicaragua, perhaps just interactions with the shear... so does this mean that the shear may be helping the storm develop by bringing in added instability or will this do nothing for a storm of Tropical nature? Just a question.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#404 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:21 am

In other words... it's a double edge sword? Shear Bad, Conevection Good. Good questions mgpetre. Hopefully we can get some educated answers.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#405 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:23 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
mgpetre wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.

Thoughts?


Gosh, HouTX, I hate that I'm the one responding to your question, for I am mostly a newbie to the science of Tropical Weather systems; however, I have watched the Weather Channel since the days before it was just another attempt at entertainment (ok, so I hate storm stories and I digress...)

My opinion is that you are on to something, it went through shear and it became a pretty much ALL lower and mid level storm. It is now forming convection over the same old center and still seems to be slowing. One way or another we will have a different animal on our hands tomorrow. If it were to turn a bit more NW, I would be afraid that the ideal conditions for rapid development might be in place... let's just wait and see where she heads.


Although your answer is insufficient, I appreciate the effort... lol


I'm guessing that you are correct in assuming any circulation right now is closer to the surface than it has been in the life cycle of this storm so far.
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Re:

#406 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:36 am

CajunMama wrote:I'm scratching my head trying to make some sense out of this thread. I swear i was in the chatroom Image with some of the posts. When a serious storm does occur i hope that these threads will contain more vital information instead of the chatter. Just please remember some of us are here to read up on what's happening and so much of this can be said in the chatroom instead of on here. We don't want to have to delete posts like we did last year so hopefully some thought will be given to your reply before you hit the submit key.
I agree. I just got home and read all of this. When we do have a real system....... I hope this doesn't happen. Let me re prhase that, We won't let it. My apologies to the Pro Mets.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#407 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:42 am

At the same time I don't think we should create an environment where poster must feel "qualified" to post there amateur opinions. Keep in mind we do have a pro-mets board if people want to get more qualified analysis of a storm.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#408 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:46 am

Interesting, bands that are parallel to the shear are the ones that are able to maintain convection. Like the storm is fighting back with it's own stab at the shear.
Last edited by mgpetre on Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#409 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:46 am

HouTXmetro wrote:At the same time I don't think we should create an environment where poster must feel "qualified" to post there amateur opinions. Keep in mind we do have a pro-mets board if people want to get more qualified analysis of a storm.

That's not what she was talking about at all. :) It's the chatroom style posting, mostly. Read a few of the topics in the forum below and you'll understand where she was coming from.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=37
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Re: Re:

#410 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:48 am

mgpetre wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Question, because of the good satellite presentaion of a circulation which has maintined itself in the absence of convection, does that mean the system is in the process of working down to the surface? The last few nights showed MLC which have faded away and new convection developed away from the old MLC. Tonight we see convection firing around and existing MLC or developing LLC.

Thoughts?


Gosh, HouTX, I hate that I'm the one responding to your question, for I am mostly a newbie to the science of Tropical Weather systems; however, I have watched the Weather Channel since the days before it was just another attempt at entertainment (ok, so I hate storm stories and I digress...)

My opinion is that you are on to something, it went through shear and it became a pretty much ALL lower and mid level storm. It is now forming convection over the same old center and still seems to be slowing. One way or another we will have a different animal on our hands tomorrow. If it were to turn a bit more NW, I would be afraid that the ideal conditions for rapid development might be in place... let's just wait and see where she heads.

I see zero low level convergence per CIMSS analysis. Winds at 700mb and 850mb are still pegged to be around 30 kt or more... too strong for any LLC to develop without getting ripped apart immediately. The winds at those levels, and thus the storm speed, should slow down in about 60 hr, when this is most likely going to be in the Western Caribbean. Any development will have to wait until then.


Rainband wrote:
CajunMama wrote:I'm scratching my head trying to make some sense out of this thread. I swear i was in the chatroom Image with some of the posts. When a serious storm does occur i hope that these threads will contain more vital information instead of the chatter. Just please remember some of us are here to read up on what's happening and so much of this can be said in the chatroom instead of on here. We don't want to have to delete posts like we did last year so hopefully some thought will be given to your reply before you hit the submit key.
I agree. I just got home and read all of this. When we do have a real system....... I hope this doesn't happen. Let me re prhase that, We won't let it. My apologies to the Pro Mets.

I don't think the Pro Mets would care about the noise... although I do agree it is a pain for this chatter to cause the discussion to reach 6 threads with 25 pgs. per thread - that's 150 pages with 20 posts each... 3000 posts. And this is for an Invest which has very little hope for promotion for another 3 days.
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#411 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:53 am

wxmann_91, I believe Rainband was talking about the rudeness towards them by a couple of members.

And I agree... I hope they realize that the overwhelming majority of us appreciate their input and respect their opinions.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#412 Postby crazycajuncane » Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:59 am

99L fighting to live another day!

This has been a very interesting and widely watched invest to say the least. August should be a busy month around here.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#413 Postby mgpetre » Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:00 am

Going to bed... I think I might have been rude at one point and hope that I have edited that post to reflect the fact that I did not mean to be.

On another note... I believe we still have a couple of days at least of talking about 99L or whatever it is to become. It just doesn't want to drift away like so many waves have done.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#414 Postby crazycajuncane » Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:06 am

mgpetre wrote:Going to bed... I think I might have been rude at one point and hope that I have edited that post to reflect the fact that I did not mean to be.

On another note... I believe we still have a couple of days at least of talking about 99L or whatever it is to become. It just doesn't want to drift away like so many waves have done.


I hear ya... I'll go to bed earlier tonight. 99L not as pretty as it was at this time last night. Time to get some sleep. We may not have any if a new invest forms!
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Re:

#415 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:07 am

southerngale wrote:wxmann_91, I believe Rainband was talking about the rudeness towards them by a couple of members.

And I agree... I hope they realize that the overwhelming majority of us appreciate their input and respect their opinions.

Oh, I see... thanks for the clarification. And yes, it is nice to have pro mets add their input.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#416 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 03, 2007 4:28 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FORMATION BEFORE THE WAVE REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#417 Postby alan1961 » Fri Aug 03, 2007 5:36 am

can we finally close the door on 99L..or do we chew over the remnants down the road..lets give him a little credit for trying..bring on the next contender :wink:
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#418 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 03, 2007 6:06 am

The ridge to the north of the wave is still pushing this along pretty fast and the SSTs are a little cooler east of Jamaica.

The TUTT low to the west of 99L is rolling west just a little slower than 99L. What WXman57 called the "stealth wave" ahead of 99L has entered the area. AFM explained this as an area of environmentally less stable air. As a result the much weaker stealth wave is firing convection east of the Yucatan. The western side of 99L out ahead of the wave axis is begining to encounter some of this instabiliity near Jamaica. Therefore the official forecast states development is possible in the western Caribbean over the weekend.

The GFS is still building the atlantic ridge west into the gulf far enough that if the storm does not take root over the warmer SSTs near the Yucatan it could roll in south of the Texas border as a tumbleweed.

There is an upper level high over Arizona that is moving east as the atlantic ridge pushes west. It is not clear to me yet whether the GFS will bridge this high with the atlantic ridge or a TUTT stays between them? If we get a trough near the gulf, forecasting a final track gets very tricky. Troughs can shear or they can help ventilate a developing system. In the current situation a trough near Texas could bias the track further right.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#419 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 03, 2007 6:21 am

alan1961 wrote:can we finally close the door on 99L..or do we chew over the remnants down the road..lets give him a little credit for trying..bring on the next contender :wink:

This is still a well defined tropical wave, the shear and fast track is just temporary. It still has a chance to develop in about 24 hrs or so. But yeah, we should give it a little rest for now.
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Re: Invest 99L Thread #6

#420 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 03, 2007 6:51 am

The persistent disturbance over the central Caribbean Sea is fighting for its life this morning. Satellite images suggest a strong surge of westerly shear associated with a westward-moving ULL north of Honduras. Yesterday morning I mentioned that this system had some potential to develop by Saturday, but only IF it slowed down. The reason? It was approaching a fast axis of westerly shear. Well, this tropical wave has not slowed down and has finally encountered the westerly shear that was ahead of it (There were signs yesterday morning that the shear was starting to impinge on the SW side.) This shear seems to have enhanced the convection in a linear manner north of the MLC that developed from yesterday's vigorous convection burst.

If you take a look at the satellite pictures, you'll see that the tropical wave axis seems to be located just south of Jamaica. If true, this would indicate that the tropical wave is racing west nearly 30 mph outrunning the MLC and the convection developing due to shear. Since the system has continued racing westward I believe this system will be inland over Central America by tomorrow afternoon which gives it VERY little time to get itself together.

Even if it slows down, it seems like the system has already encountered its worst enemy...
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