99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[Normandy]

I see what you are seeing and thank you for the images. In the last frame I see a lone white dot just above 15. My amature eyes see this system fighting north of the mlc. Any more information will be appreciated and well received.

^ Actually you may be right, I do see something that looks like midlevel spin up near the center of the dying convection.

[punkyg]

I see what you are seeing and thank you for the images. In the last frame I see a lone white dot just above 15. My amature eyes see this system fighting north of the mlc. Any more information will be appreciated and well received.

^ Actually you may be right, I do see something that looks like midlevel spin up near the center of the dying convection.

The convection will refire around 4 or 5am.

[tailgater]

Refiring Now

[Recurve]

A blob-watcher's markup.




Man I'm bored, but it is that point of trying to see a hint of a closed low forming from IR sat alone.

[weatherSnoop]

Tired and bored create interesting graphics...thank you. I still pick the blue hole sitting around 16...82. I wil be going to rest and see what the fall out is later this morning. Appreciate the insight, explaination and graphics. Lost most of my links in a very localized crash...lightening in Tampa, go figure

[Normandy]

Wow something very interesting is happening with 99L and I dont know exactly what it is, but ill give it a shot at explaining it.

First off, their appears to be two mid level vorts, one very small one on the southern edge of the convection and one much larger one a bit north of the smaller one.

Here is a cheap little piece of graphics that I made....


Run one of these two loops to see the two mid level vorts and their movements.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
They both seem pretty clear and evident to me, and it seems like the larger one is more dominant and has a better shot of surviving then the tiny one. Also its evident that the movement of the larger vort has been WNW or NW while the smaller vort as zipped along Westward. Please also note that these arrows indicate short term motion....Im not saying the larger MLC will track NW to the gulf coast if it refires and develops.


If this is the case, where the next convective burst concentrates is critical....if it concentrates near the southern vort then it crashes into land later this morning. If it flares towards the northern vort, it has at LEAST one more day over water as it will likely clear the Honduran coast under this scenario. Anyone else agree or see what I do?

[weatherSnoop]

Now you are seeing what I was looking at. I wait for someone more knowledgable to agree with you.

[Starburst]

99L is back up on the Navy site again!!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Normandy]

Well not much convection firing near the mlc....check back later.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL LIKELY HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Nimbus]

The convection has waned a little this morning allowing an IR view of some low level structure. There was a very clear little hook near 15.5N -82.0 W in the low clouds. That means it has been traveling overnight on a line toward Belize city/blackbird cay. The center will stay north off shore of the Honduras but may not get a chance to really spin up till later tonight due to land proximity.

Should be at least a depression by the time recon checks it out.

[Thunder44]

The convection has waned a little this morning allowing an IR view of some low level structure. There was a very clear little hook near 15.5N -82.0 W in the low clouds. That means it has been traveling overnight on a line toward Belize city/blackbird cay. The center will stay north off shore of the Honduras but may not get a chance to really spin up till later tonight due to land proximity.

Should be at least a depression by the time recon checks it out.

There are no recon flights scheduled or tasked for this system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like low or MLC is moving inland. RIP 99L. Maybe you will have another chance in the eastern Pacific.

[Annie Oakley]

I am fascinated with this system.....it just seems to fight like a mad dog to stay alive. Thanks to all of you for observing and reporting data. Lots of knowledge on this forum.

[Hyperstorm]

I think it's time to wave goodbye to 99L (Atlantic).

Satellite images suggest that the main center of the vigorous tropical wave is beginning to move inland over central America. While upper-level winds have relaxed significantly over the past 24 hours, its move inland will destroy any chances for tropical cyclone formation. If the system were moving north of Honduras toward the Yucatan, we could very well see a tropical storm form out of this. However, its movement too fast over the Caribbean and the marginal environment it's been embedded in have taken their toll on this system (Atlantic).

Note: I see there could be a SLIGHT possibility of having a new center develop in the convection north of Honduras, but AGAIN it is time limited. Centers take a while to develop since you first must see persistent convection for 24 hours and a lowering of the pressure. Since the northern half of the system will have less than or equal to 24 hours over water before moving over Belize/Yucatan, development into a tropical cyclone does not look plausible. There may be a VERY outside chance it could scrape the southern Bay of Campeche.

I think it's time to shift our main attention to a significant tropical low about to exit the African continent and to a developing low pressure system off the coast of the Carolinas...

[wxman57]

Here's a surface analysis & satellite. Any MLC is moving ashore into eastern Honduras now. Could generate a weak surface spin along the northern coast of Honduras but this is just a rain event for them. Most of the energy will stay south of the BoC, though I think it'll spark a few storms to its north over the BoC as it passes.

[jasons2k]

Finally!!

[Stormavoider]

Someone needs to wake-up all the kids so they can do all the "stick a fork in it" posts.

[Evil Jeremy]

Someone needs to wake-up all the kids so they can do all the "stick a fork in it" posts.

Thanks for reminding me.

ITS DEAD ITS DEAD ITS DEAD!

Moving on

[Sanibel]

This one was forming but the steering currents took it into Honduras. It could relocate some convection back over water - but I doubt it.

Africa is sending out dry waves.

Still too early.