Signs of change from global models

[Cyclone1]

And when the pattern changes...things will explode
especailly given the heat contents in the caribbean
so folks get ready for a wild ride

I agree completely.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

I had remembered seeing this thread back near the middle of July. My question is: Did this change indeed occur or are we still waiting. My guess, from observation, is that the change in the tropics was not as pronounced as many expected. Thoughts?

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Nobody wants to talk about it?

[Cyclone1]

Hasn't changed yet. It's still early August, which is usually just as inactive as late July. Mid-August, things should ramp up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Change is gradual. The bermuda high and ridge is building
in slowly across the atlantic.
Things will gradually become more
favorable and then things should get very
active by mid to especially late august, we are
in for some strong activity.

[jinftl]

Interesting:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
229 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANGE INDICATED TO LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH
BLOCKING RIDGE NR THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SFC RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH FL SAT. LATEST GFS SHOWS A DECENT TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERLIES ACROSS BAHAMAS NEXT SUN. PRESENCE OF
A FRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL JUST NORTH OF AREA POINTS TOWARD A BREAK
IN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT
ANYWAY. AT ANY RATE WL PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT THE EASTERLIES AS
THE UPSTREAM SOURCE OF FUTURE WEATHER CONSIDERING THE SEASON AND
STRENGTH OF MID OCEAN RIDGE.

[Blown Away]

Look forward to the sea breeze, finally!!

[ronjon]

18z GFS Model for entertainment purposes.

[El Nino]

D16, I won't be worried for the moment.

[flwxwatcher]

The 12Z EURO and the 18Z GFS both show this system. Its along way off but we are heading into the meat of the season.. lets see if this pans out

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7080512!!/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

[Brent]

18z GFS Model for entertainment purposes.

I go back to college on the 20th, so I'm expecting a major U.S. threat around that date!

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah it's kind of crazy looking, lets see if the models continue to show this system consecutively for the next few days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

When viewing computer models everyone should keep in mind this fact:

Even if these long range systems do form, they hardly ever go in real life where the first several runs send them.

[Meso]

And here's the 06z of it


It's a long tracker..the GFS is showing the low developing in 6 days..Oh well,another wait and see..

Like Hybrid said though,it changes a lot from run to run,even over the past two you can see that the 18z had a ridge to the north and the 06z has a trough.

And as predictable the 12z has taken a 180 degree on it


But alas,the area that the GFS was developing in previous runs the cmc shows the same thing the GFS was showing at the same place and time

[ronjon]

18Z GFS for Entertainment purposes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Theme is that the ridge is establishing and that
the waves will start spinning up in the next 5-10 days
likely.

[Meso]

Hey... guys

[skysummit]

Another for fun....but isn't this like 3 runs in a row now showing something at 2 weeks? It moves off the coast in 102 hours and has it near South Florida @ 384.

[hial2]

8/23...one day before the anniversary of you-know-who...It will never happen,though

[TheShrimper]

Lord, lets hope not. That run depicted is pretty scary.