Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

[Cookiely]

I can't believe people are talking about autumn. I was doing some yard work and it was so hot today I thought the sun was going to set my clothes on fire.

[Sanibel]

The High over us is allowing blaring sun to drive temperatures into the upper 90's here. You can't go outside during the afternnon. No rain on top of it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For the first time this summer forecasts are calling for HOT weather here in Houston. The high is forecast to hover somewhere between 97-98 over the next few days. However, I have a feeling some places will approach the century mark.

[terstorm1012]

same here. This week should bring our first hot hot hot spell of the summer.

[Brent]

For the first time this summer forecasts are calling for HOT weather here in Houston. The high is forecast to hover somewhere between 97-98 over the next few days. However, I have a feeling some places will approach the century mark.

Same here... near or at 100 through Friday. The hottest weather of the summer. Thankfully, we had a storm yesterday and some light rain today to keep the temperatures down slightly but I don't expect to get lucky everyday.

[cheezyWXguy]

For the first time this summer forecasts are calling for HOT weather here in Houston. The high is forecast to hover somewhere between 97-98 over the next few days. However, I have a feeling some places will approach the century mark.

Same here... near or at 100 through Friday. The hottest weather of the summer. Thankfully, we had a storm yesterday and some light rain today to keep the temperatures down slightly but I don't expect to get lucky everyday.

Same...97+ for the enxt few days...today, at my house we reached 100 for the 2nd day in a row...it may have not been official at DFW, but we did here

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Why did the El Nino of 2004 allow so many
devastating hurricanes in florida but in the 2006
el nino we got saved thank God? El Nino
was stronger in 2006?

[windycity]

I think the reason why Florida got slammed in 04 was the position of the Burmuda High. I keep holding my breath till after the 07 season is over. Having something to track is one thing, tracking them as they are heading towards you is a bit unnerving!!!

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't a ridge over the eastern US block incoming systems and drive storms into an early recurve?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Not sure what will happen but one day I hope
we can all live in those thermodynamically structured hurricane
proof homes the ones shaped like domes!!!
Then we would be invincible except for that doggone storm
surge...somethings still gotta be done to protect us against that.

Not that I want storms I don't but just in case always be safe my homies.

[Steve]

>>Wouldn't a ridge over the eastern US block incoming systems and drive storms into an early recurve?

Only if it was inland. Remember, the flow around those highs is clockwise. And they will block storms trying to move north into them unless there is a weakness in the ridging, if it buckles a little or if it erodes.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wouldn't a ridge over the eastern US block incoming systems and drive storms into an early recurve?

Depends on many factors...such as where the storm is coming from, how strong it is, the influence and position of the bermuda high in relation to the southeast U.S. high, etc. Home-grown systems or systems that form closer to the Windwards will probably be our biggest threats as they may not be able to recurve and could get sent west toward the U.S. Each storm and situation will be different though and we will need to look at them individually as they form.

[Hyperstorm]

In 2004, the El Nino did not develop until LATE in the season, thus the heart of the season that year was not affected. Once October came around it was a totally different story as the developing El Nino shut the season off early. In 2006, the El Nino developed DURING the heart of the season, plus add to that the above-average amounts of African dust, and that's why it was a relatively quiet year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

interesting...thanks for that info on el nino

[Steve]

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

Fairly weak stuff - TD hit on China, Cat 1 on Taiwan. The key would be if these storms curve west. That could teleconnect to an open Western Gulf scenario two ridge pulses away. You never know, but it's something worth watching.

edit - GFS doesn't teleconnect with pending changes in the WPAC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is now saying that the current typhoon hitting China is more like Carla (since he thinks it will never really recurve)...and would teleconnect nicely to the above normal height field forming over here in the Atlantic. Usagi was more like a Katrina (though it recurved into what would have been the FL panhandle instead of LA)...and now this Chinese typhoon is more like a Carla. If the ridge builds in like that over here, as he suggests it will, then the GOM could have some real issues down the road..

[Aquawind]

I keep hearing IF the ridge builds.. It doesn't seem like it's going to stick around for much longer than a few days at a time at this point. I question this pattern change we are waiting for in that it will ever really change much..just like the florida rainy season. Looks like intermittent ridging at best. I still see alot of troughing for most of the GFS run. Soo I think the field is wide open and simply a matter of timming for each system.

[Stormcenter]

JB is now saying that the current typhoon hitting China is more like Carla (since he thinks it will never really recurve)...and would teleconnect nicely to the above normal height field forming over here in the Atlantic. Usagi was more like a Katrina (though it recurved into what would have been the FL panhandle instead of LA)...and now this Chinese typhoon is more like a Carla. If the ridge builds in like that over here, as he suggests it will, then the GOM could have some real issues down the road..

Huh?

Sometimes I think JB figures if we don't understand what he means then maybe we will just go ahead and just believe it. The "teleconnect" stuff sounds like psychic talk.

[canegrl04]

On TWC's tropical update this morning,they seemed to be writing off the season already by throwing out stats like the fact there have only been two other season when no storm formed in August,and 6 of the last 42 seasons,no hurricanes

[Extremeweatherguy]

I keep hearing IF the ridge builds.. It doesn't seem like it's going to stick around for much longer than a few days at a time at this point. I question this pattern change we are waiting for in that it will ever really change much..just like the florida rainy season. Looks like intermittent ridging at best. I still see alot of troughing for most of the GFS run. Soo I think the field is wide open and simply a matter of timming for each system.

JB thinks it will build and it will stay strong. He said that he does not believe the GFS with it's strong trough that it tries to bring in 10 days down the road (shown in yesterday's 18z run), but that any troughs that do form should be weak and transient (not a lock and hold situation). He is calling for a hot and steamy August in the east and southeast because of this..and he also has the main tropical targets this year being Florida and the GOM for the same reasons.

BTW...the question is no longer IF this ridge will build. It already has: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

the question now is IF we will go back to a long-term troughy pattern or IF the ridge will build in even more and eventually win out. Time will tell..