Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#41 Postby Cookiely » Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:42 pm

I can't believe people are talking about autumn. I was doing some yard work and it was so hot today I thought the sun was going to set my clothes on fire.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#42 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:44 pm

The High over us is allowing blaring sun to drive temperatures into the upper 90's here. You can't go outside during the afternnon. No rain on top of it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#43 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:50 pm

For the first time this summer forecasts are calling for HOT weather here in Houston. The high is forecast to hover somewhere between 97-98 over the next few days. However, I have a feeling some places will approach the century mark.
0 likes   

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#44 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:06 pm

same here. This week should bring our first hot hot hot spell of the summer.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38106
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#45 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 06, 2007 6:04 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:For the first time this summer forecasts are calling for HOT weather here in Houston. The high is forecast to hover somewhere between 97-98 over the next few days. However, I have a feeling some places will approach the century mark.


Same here... near or at 100 through Friday. The hottest weather of the summer. Thankfully, we had a storm yesterday and some light rain today to keep the temperatures down slightly but I don't expect to get lucky everyday.
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#46 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 06, 2007 6:12 pm

Brent wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:For the first time this summer forecasts are calling for HOT weather here in Houston. The high is forecast to hover somewhere between 97-98 over the next few days. However, I have a feeling some places will approach the century mark.


Same here... near or at 100 through Friday. The hottest weather of the summer. Thankfully, we had a storm yesterday and some light rain today to keep the temperatures down slightly but I don't expect to get lucky everyday.

Same...97+ for the enxt few days...today, at my house we reached 100 for the 2nd day in a row...it may have not been official at DFW, but we did here
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#47 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:27 pm

Why did the El Nino of 2004 allow so many
devastating hurricanes in florida but in the 2006
el nino we got saved thank God? El Nino
was stronger in 2006?
0 likes   

User avatar
windycity
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 461
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:45 pm
Location: P.B.county,Fl.
Contact:

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#48 Postby windycity » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:42 pm

I think the reason why Florida got slammed in 04 was the position of the Burmuda High. I keep holding my breath till after the 07 season is over. Having something to track is one thing, tracking them as they are heading towards you is a bit unnerving!!! :roll:
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34006
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:44 pm

Wouldn't a ridge over the eastern US block incoming systems and drive storms into an early recurve?
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#50 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:55 pm

Not sure what will happen but one day I hope
we can all live in those thermodynamically structured hurricane
proof homes the ones shaped like domes!!! :D
Then we would be invincible except for that doggone storm
surge...somethings still gotta be done to protect us against that.

Not that I want storms I don't but just in case always be safe my homies.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#51 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:44 pm

>>Wouldn't a ridge over the eastern US block incoming systems and drive storms into an early recurve?

Only if it was inland. Remember, the flow around those highs is clockwise. And they will block storms trying to move north into them unless there is a weakness in the ridging, if it buckles a little or if it erodes.

Steve
Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re:

#52 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Wouldn't a ridge over the eastern US block incoming systems and drive storms into an early recurve?
Depends on many factors...such as where the storm is coming from, how strong it is, the influence and position of the bermuda high in relation to the southeast U.S. high, etc. Home-grown systems or systems that form closer to the Windwards will probably be our biggest threats as they may not be able to recurve and could get sent west toward the U.S. Each storm and situation will be different though and we will need to look at them individually as they form.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#53 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:09 pm

In 2004, the El Nino did not develop until LATE in the season, thus the heart of the season that year was not affected. Once October came around it was a totally different story as the developing El Nino shut the season off early. In 2006, the El Nino developed DURING the heart of the season, plus add to that the above-average amounts of African dust, and that's why it was a relatively quiet year.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#54 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:27 pm

interesting...thanks for that info on el nino
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#55 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:55 pm

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

Fairly weak stuff - TD hit on China, Cat 1 on Taiwan. The key would be if these storms curve west. That could teleconnect to an open Western Gulf scenario two ridge pulses away. You never know, but it's something worth watching.

edit - GFS doesn't teleconnect with pending changes in the WPAC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#56 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:29 am

JB is now saying that the current typhoon hitting China is more like Carla (since he thinks it will never really recurve)...and would teleconnect nicely to the above normal height field forming over here in the Atlantic. Usagi was more like a Katrina (though it recurved into what would have been the FL panhandle instead of LA)...and now this Chinese typhoon is more like a Carla. If the ridge builds in like that over here, as he suggests it will, then the GOM could have some real issues down the road..
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#57 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:53 am

I keep hearing IF the ridge builds.. It doesn't seem like it's going to stick around for much longer than a few days at a time at this point. I question this pattern change we are waiting for in that it will ever really change much..just like the florida rainy season. Looks like intermittent ridging at best. I still see alot of troughing for most of the GFS run. Soo I think the field is wide open and simply a matter of timming for each system.
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#58 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 07, 2007 8:20 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB is now saying that the current typhoon hitting China is more like Carla (since he thinks it will never really recurve)...and would teleconnect nicely to the above normal height field forming over here in the Atlantic. Usagi was more like a Katrina (though it recurved into what would have been the FL panhandle instead of LA)...and now this Chinese typhoon is more like a Carla. If the ridge builds in like that over here, as he suggests it will, then the GOM could have some real issues down the road..



Huh?

Sometimes I think JB figures if we don't understand what he means then maybe we will just go ahead and just believe it. The "teleconnect" stuff sounds like psychic talk. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#59 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Aug 07, 2007 8:29 am

On TWC's tropical update this morning,they seemed to be writing off the season already by throwing out stats like the fact there have only been two other season when no storm formed in August,and 6 of the last 42 seasons,no hurricanes :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#60 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 07, 2007 8:31 am

Aquawind wrote:I keep hearing IF the ridge builds.. It doesn't seem like it's going to stick around for much longer than a few days at a time at this point. I question this pattern change we are waiting for in that it will ever really change much..just like the florida rainy season. Looks like intermittent ridging at best. I still see alot of troughing for most of the GFS run. Soo I think the field is wide open and simply a matter of timming for each system.

JB thinks it will build and it will stay strong. He said that he does not believe the GFS with it's strong trough that it tries to bring in 10 days down the road (shown in yesterday's 18z run), but that any troughs that do form should be weak and transient (not a lock and hold situation). He is calling for a hot and steamy August in the east and southeast because of this..and he also has the main tropical targets this year being Florida and the GOM for the same reasons.

BTW...the question is no longer IF this ridge will build. It already has: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

the question now is IF we will go back to a long-term troughy pattern or IF the ridge will build in even more and eventually win out. Time will tell..
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 22 guests