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Praxus wrote:Haven't read the whole thread; but I'm a bit confused if this is referring to the same system in the other thread about the wave coming off africa....or are the models calling for 2 systems to develop next week ?!
Aric Dunn wrote:Praxus wrote:Haven't read the whole thread; but I'm a bit confused if this is referring to the same system in the other thread about the wave coming off africa....or are the models calling for 2 systems to develop next week ?!
different systems .. carribean and gulf ... in the thread
Can you post more of his article? Why does he think at least a tropical storm will form? The gulf and caribbean are not favorable right now.Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest thoughts from JB this afternoon...
-He believes that at least a tropical storm will form. He said he could be wrong, but he thinks this one really has a shot.
-He thinks the system will develop faster than what models such as the NAM are suggesting and that it will take a WNW track.
-He thinks the cone of error for where this system might go would range from the Texas Gulf coast on the north side to Tampiaco on the south side.
cycloneye wrote:Dean4Storms I modified the title of thread to take out CMC forecasts major hurricane,and put models show development in GOM?,as other models are joining CMC.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest thoughts from JB this afternoon...
-He believes that at least a tropical storm will form. He said he could be wrong, but he thinks this one really has a shot.
-He thinks the system will develop faster than what models such as the NAM are suggesting and that it will take a WNW track.
-He thinks the cone of error for where this system might go would range from the Texas Gulf coast on the north side to Tampiaco on the south side.
Sounds like a weak storm being shoved west by the ridge, a lot like Bret of 05 except slightly more north.Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest thoughts from JB this afternoon...
-He believes that at least a tropical storm will form. He said he could be wrong, but he thinks this one really has a shot.
-He thinks the system will develop faster than what models such as the NAM are suggesting and that it will take a WNW track.
-He thinks the cone of error for where this system might go would range from the Texas Gulf coast on the north side to Tampiaco on the south side.
Well, I am not really allowed to post his actual article here since it comes from the pro site. I am only giving brief summaries of his key points. He has many reasons for why he thinks something would form though (even though he admits there are a lot of negatives too), but the key reasoning would be that the energy would bundle under the ridge as it builds over the system while a trough splits away in front of it. This, combined with warm waters and other factors is what is driving him to believe something could form. He also uses past data in his analysis too and has said over the last few days that similar scenarios have produced storms before.miamicanes177 wrote:Can you post more of his article? Why does he think at least a tropical storm will form?Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest thoughts from JB this afternoon...
-He believes that at least a tropical storm will form. He said he could be wrong, but he thinks this one really has a shot.
-He thinks the system will develop faster than what models such as the NAM are suggesting and that it will take a WNW track.
-He thinks the cone of error for where this system might go would range from the Texas Gulf coast on the north side to Tampiaco on the south side.
May be..and that is what we all hope for..However, he said if this really gets going that he wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane come of this. He is not ready to make any calls on that for sure though right now.Opal storm wrote:Sounds like a weak storm being shoved west by the ridge, a lot like Bret of 05 except slightly more north.Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest thoughts from JB this afternoon...
-He believes that at least a tropical storm will form. He said he could be wrong, but he thinks this one really has a shot.
-He thinks the system will develop faster than what models such as the NAM are suggesting and that it will take a WNW track.
-He thinks the cone of error for where this system might go would range from the Texas Gulf coast on the north side to Tampiaco on the south side.
mgpetre wrote:OK, so I'm going out on a limb here. Based upon my observations of the weak wave in the central Carribean and the conditions developing near the Yucatan, I think we'll have our first Depression in a while just south of Cuba before tomorrow is over.
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