System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[sponger]

Very Interesting!!!

[gatorcane]

wow I can't believe how far in advance the models saw this.....

well folks we may have an interesting situation unfolding for the GOM....

[dwg71]

wow I can't believe how far in advance the models saw this.....

well folks we may have an interesting situation unfolding for the GOM....

Lets see if there is anything there before we start patting the models (and yourselves ) on the back.

[DrewFL]

Lets see if there is anything there before we start patting the models (and yourselves ) on the back.


No kidding.... For all anyone knows at this point the models are just picking up on a TUTT-closed ULL configuration.

[Sanibel]

The lesson of last night's convection area should teach us not to hype any disturbance in the Caribbean until it shows some kind of development. We should have learned from 99L and other waves that 2007 was not revealing storms from satellite alone. Last night's convection area had no surface feature, so it should have been expected to poof as 2007 is tending.

The weak area of convection that moved off Colombia is where CMC saw the Low emerging. I don't see Derek's surface spin there. The convection is still rather weak, so I don't think it should be credited until it refires - no matter what the models are shouting.

As for the Caribbean, if we follow 2007 lessons, remember 99L came back from a bad fade-out (or 'poof'), as this one has done, and flared deep red further west in the Caribbean. So don't write this one off because it dissappeared. Also - note the strong ULL above the Antilles. That looks like a development-wrecker to me.

[Rainband]

But it's the nam

[storms in NC]

I don't see any thing that would say development is going to happen. I don't know what the models are picking up on. But maybe by Sunday there might be something who knows what will happen.

[HouTXmetro]

All good points, and seconodly, what exactly is suppose to pull anything in the carribean due north this time of year? It Doesn't make sense to me.

[storms in NC]

All good points, and seconodly, what exactly is suppose to pull anything in the carribean due north this time of year? It Doesn't make sense to me.

This is true everything seem to be going West

[DrewFL]

Yep, it's the NAM!


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

...LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...

REGARDING ITS POSITION...THE 00Z/12Z NAM ARE QUITE SIMILAR BY
13/12Z...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN APPEARS A BIT MORE BULLISH
SPINNING THIS SYSTEM UP AND IS TRENDING DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN.

[Sanibel]

I wish they would put the Floater over the west Caribbean where the Colombian convection has emerged so we could see possible formation. What is the use of the Floater if they leave it turned-off? I need sharp resolution to see surface movement!

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is a floater that may come in handy, in the next couple of days...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

[Aric Dunn]

This is still the Area to watch today



dont worry about the details of what the models are saying!!!! thats not the point!!! the point is something is going there is a lot of energy in the western Caribbean and some more coming from the SE so watch the area in the image for convection to increase again later today as i said would yesterday so it will today in this area in the image. but let me make this clear like yesterday to i do not expect development just some more increase in convection which may lead to what the models are hinting at!! Also the upper environment is very conducive with a anticyclone over the area and the best low level convergence is in this area as well so .. development not likely today but some more slow orginization yeah possibly but dont write it off till the skies are clear!!!

[tracyswfla]

What is the shear ahead of this little cloud formation

[Aric Dunn]

notice the wind barbs on this image

[Aric Dunn]

What is the shear ahead of this little cloud formation

if your talking about the image i posted? the shear is good as there is a upper ridge that has built on top of it

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah Aric, I noticed that last night... What do you think?

[Agua]

looks like a very small LLC near 13.2N and 74.7W

http://www.nwhhc.com/caribdist.gif

for some reason, the cursor did not show up when I saved the image

Yeah, I can see what appears to be lower level circulation on the loop.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah Aric, I noticed that last night... What do you think?

about what exaclty the shear? the surface reports ?

[tracyswfla]

So to my untrained shear map eye, it looks like the shear is low?