System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23692
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
wow I can't believe how far in advance the models saw this.....
well folks we may have an interesting situation unfolding for the GOM....
well folks we may have an interesting situation unfolding for the GOM....
0 likes
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
gatorcane wrote:wow I can't believe how far in advance the models saw this.....
well folks we may have an interesting situation unfolding for the GOM....
Lets see if there is anything there before we start patting the models (and yourselves

0 likes
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
Lets see if there is anything there before we start patting the models (and yourselves ) on the back.
No kidding.... For all anyone knows at this point the models are just picking up on a TUTT-closed ULL configuration.
No kidding.... For all anyone knows at this point the models are just picking up on a TUTT-closed ULL configuration.
0 likes
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
The lesson of last night's convection area should teach us not to hype any disturbance in the Caribbean until it shows some kind of development. We should have learned from 99L and other waves that 2007 was not revealing storms from satellite alone. Last night's convection area had no surface feature, so it should have been expected to poof as 2007 is tending.
The weak area of convection that moved off Colombia is where CMC saw the Low emerging. I don't see Derek's surface spin there. The convection is still rather weak, so I don't think it should be credited until it refires - no matter what the models are shouting.
As for the Caribbean, if we follow 2007 lessons, remember 99L came back from a bad fade-out (or 'poof'), as this one has done, and flared deep red further west in the Caribbean. So don't write this one off because it dissappeared. Also - note the strong ULL above the Antilles. That looks like a development-wrecker to me.
The weak area of convection that moved off Colombia is where CMC saw the Low emerging. I don't see Derek's surface spin there. The convection is still rather weak, so I don't think it should be credited until it refires - no matter what the models are shouting.
As for the Caribbean, if we follow 2007 lessons, remember 99L came back from a bad fade-out (or 'poof'), as this one has done, and flared deep red further west in the Caribbean. So don't write this one off because it dissappeared. Also - note the strong ULL above the Antilles. That looks like a development-wrecker to me.
0 likes
- storms in NC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2338
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
- Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
- Contact:
- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
All good points, and seconodly, what exactly is suppose to pull anything in the carribean due north this time of year? It Doesn't make sense to me.
0 likes
- storms in NC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2338
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
- Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
- Contact:
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
HouTXmetro wrote:All good points, and seconodly, what exactly is suppose to pull anything in the carribean due north this time of year? It Doesn't make sense to me.
This is true everything seem to be going West
0 likes
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
Yep, it's the NAM!
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007
...LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
REGARDING ITS POSITION...THE 00Z/12Z NAM ARE QUITE SIMILAR BY
13/12Z...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN APPEARS A BIT MORE BULLISH
SPINNING THIS SYSTEM UP AND IS TRENDING DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007
...LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
REGARDING ITS POSITION...THE 00Z/12Z NAM ARE QUITE SIMILAR BY
13/12Z...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN APPEARS A BIT MORE BULLISH
SPINNING THIS SYSTEM UP AND IS TRENDING DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN.
0 likes
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
I wish they would put the Floater over the west Caribbean where the Colombian convection has emerged so we could see possible formation. What is the use of the Floater if they leave it turned-off? I need sharp resolution to see surface movement!
0 likes
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
Here is a floater that may come in handy, in the next couple of days...
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
This is still the Area to watch today

dont worry about the details of what the models are saying!!!! thats not the point!!! the point is something is going there is a lot of energy in the western Caribbean and some more coming from the SE so watch the area in the image for convection to increase again later today as i said would yesterday so it will today in this area in the image. but let me make this clear like yesterday to i do not expect development just some more increase in convection which may lead to what the models are hinting at!! Also the upper environment is very conducive with a anticyclone over the area and the best low level convergence is in this area as well so .. development not likely today but some more slow orginization yeah possibly but dont write it off till the skies are clear!!!

dont worry about the details of what the models are saying!!!! thats not the point!!! the point is something is going there is a lot of energy in the western Caribbean and some more coming from the SE so watch the area in the image for convection to increase again later today as i said would yesterday so it will today in this area in the image. but let me make this clear like yesterday to i do not expect development just some more increase in convection which may lead to what the models are hinting at!! Also the upper environment is very conducive with a anticyclone over the area and the best low level convergence is in this area as well so .. development not likely today but some more slow orginization yeah possibly but dont write it off till the skies are clear!!!
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 792
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
- Location: Rochester, NY
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
What is the shear ahead of this little cloud formation 

0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
tracyswfla wrote:What is the shear ahead of this little cloud formation
if your talking about the image i posted? the shear is good as there is a upper ridge that has built on top of it
0 likes
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
Yeah Aric, I noticed that last night... What do you think?
0 likes
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
Derek Ortt wrote:looks like a very small LLC near 13.2N and 74.7W
http://www.nwhhc.com/caribdist.gif
for some reason, the cursor did not show up when I saved the image
Yeah, I can see what appears to be lower level circulation on the loop.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
SouthFloridawx wrote:Yeah Aric, I noticed that last night... What do you think?
about what exaclty the shear? the surface reports ?
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 792
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
- Location: Rochester, NY
Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?
So to my untrained shear map eye, it looks like the shear is low?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Google [Bot], islandgirl45 and 32 guests