Just watched JBs latest videos and the most interesting points were...
-He said that this will not just be one existing system that will develop. Instead he thinks it will be a piling up of systems near the Yucatan next week that leads to development.
-He thinks the TX coast needs to watch this closely b/c he thinks the ridge will begin to weaken over TX next week and could allow an opening for this to move north.
-He thinks this may be like a Frances or a Fay type storm..but that the worst case scenario would be a serious hurricane (as shown by the CMC). Currently though, he does think the CMC scenario is "a bit extreme".
BTW: The 12z GFS is beginning to agree with JB by weakening the high over TX next week...Very early Wednesday =
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtmlVery early Thursday =
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml