System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah Aric, I noticed that last night... What do you think?

about what exaclty the shear? the surface reports ?

I think it might be interesting, if the Upper Low to the NE helps to create a favorable outflow regime, coupled with the upper level high... Let's see what happens?

I was just wondering what you thought about the area in question. Just your personal thoughts.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a very small LLC near 13.2N and 74.7W

http://www.nwhhc.com/caribdist.gif

for some reason, the cursor did not show up when I saved the image

Yeah, I can see what appears to be lower level circulation on the loop.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

unfortunately , im surprised he said anything about that. but im pretty sure he knows that area spawns vortices's all the time a couple a day sometimes and that its not really much of anything at this point. Now system have formed from those vortices's with the help of some pre existing wave or trough which we do have but it just looks like a normal one to me. so we have to wait and see either way that same energy that is lagging back in that area should move NW towards the NW carrib today so look farther NW for anything, but not saying something could come from that area and move NW

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah Aric, I noticed that last night... What do you think?

about what exaclty the shear? the surface reports ?

I think it might be interesting, if the Upper Low to the NE helps to create a favorable outflow regime, coupled with the upper level high... Let's see what happens?

I was just wondering what you thought about the area in question. Just your personal thoughts.

well that upper low to the NE and NW has already created that favorable upper environment (and may create to decent out flow channels if something develops) so your right it is going to get interesting if we get something to sustain its self.

[Aric Dunn]

So to my untrained shear map eye, it looks like the shear is low?

thats right

[tracyswfla]

So to my untrained shear map eye, it looks like the shear is low?

thats right

thank you!! So maybe I can read a shear map

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just watched JBs latest videos and the most interesting points were...

-He said that this will not just be one existing system that will develop. Instead he thinks it will be a piling up of systems near the Yucatan next week that leads to development.

-He thinks the TX coast needs to watch this closely b/c he thinks the ridge will begin to weaken over TX next week and could allow an opening for this to move north.

-He thinks this may be like a Frances or a Fay type storm..but that the worst case scenario would be a serious hurricane (as shown by the CMC). Currently though, he does think the CMC scenario is "a bit extreme".


BTW: The 12z GFS is beginning to agree with JB by weakening the high over TX next week...

Very early Wednesday = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

Very early Thursday = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

[astrosbaseball22]

CMC makes Houston Texas to Houston-Screwston texas

[Derek Ortt]

aric,

there is absolutely no meteorological data suggesting that the area you are watching will develop into anything more than a thunderstorm. Every model is developing the Cloumbian system

[Aric Dunn]

aric,

there is absolutely no meteorological data suggesting that the area you are watching will develop into anything more than a thunderstorm. Every model is developing the Cloumbian system

did i say it was going to develop.. i think i actually said we should just see an increase in convection ?? and the area you pointed out would not do anything till it moves more NW. or is there no real data for the area down there either just models for both areas





nogaps

[Aric Dunn]

and all i was saying about your post was that... that area always spawns those vorticies/low everyday and to think this one is any different is just to soon.

edit
and not every model and its going to be a combination of systems that may bring development

[fci]

I think everyone should take a nice deep breath and relax a bit.
Models thus far in 2007 have shown a lot of development and thus far; nada.

So (perhaps I am -removed-); I will believe it when I actually see a named system in the Atlantic Basin.

I know we are climatologically on the cusp of the "active" period but it is still pretty interesting how quiet it has been and we'll see how much everything REALLY pops.

My $.02

[wjs3]

Hey Aric:

Looks to me like the CIMSS map has that ridge a little to the west of where it really is. Still looks like the cirrus tops over the system you've highlighted are flying off to the north. Just eyeballing from cloud tops in the visible, it looks to me like we're not seeing that same kind of cirrus blow off a touch to the east.

WJS3

[astrosbaseball22]

is this an invest yet

[Aric Dunn]

two areas of higher Vort near columbia( where there always is) and where i pointed out.... this is the 15z vort map

[cheezyWXguy]

is this an invest yet

lol...theres barely anything out there yet...trust me, youll know when its an invest..this board will be flying

[Sanibel]

The wise storm watcher should learn from 2007 so far that waves in the Caribbean are not developing easily. It would be unadvisable to hype waves at this point. (IMO)

[Extremeweatherguy]

That's what I think too. We probably shouldn't hype this wave or a particular wave right now. If JB is right, then this will be a combination of things that play out early next week that will lead to development...not just one thing. We probably will not see an invest until Sunday or Monday at the earliest...unless something does decide to suddenly spark.

[Aric Dunn]

map
http://www.travel-to-honduras.com/image ... ap-600.jpg

roatan island off the northern coast of honduras
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html
west winds

the other large island further east
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHNO.html
NW winds
then on the NE coast of honduras
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html
SW winds

NW carrib buoy
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
East winds

cayman islands

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html
SE winds

[Aric Dunn]

new shear map upper ridge has built more NW now center over NW carrib



and the most level convergence NW carrib



http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[fci]

The wise storm watcher should learn from 2007 so far that waves in the Caribbean are not developing easily. It would be unadvisable to hype waves at this point. (IMO)

Thus far in 2007 it is unadvisable to hype ANYTHING!