System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess last post belongs in GFS African wave thread...

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Convection increasing?? I'm not seeing anything like that.

full zoom between Jamaica and Honduras.. 20 images

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

visible http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

That isn't a TC in the GOM on that model image. It's a weak low pressure area. The only TC there is NE of the islands, and even then, this is a 192 hr image, which is unreliable at best.

This wave has pretty much gone poof. There was no low pressure area and few of the models were developing anything here.

For the low thread count graphics, showing a low like that on a global model with 35 knot winds at 850 mb, that is probably suggesting a TD or minimum TS, IMHO

[Sjones]

I can see the broad circulation, convection is on the increase.

[HouTXmetro]

Honestly as bad as I would like to see something spin up, there isn't anything the eye can see that's out there. But Mets and models are both hinting at potential development so that's enough to go on right there.

[wxman57]

Nothing out there now, guys. Wait until Sunday/Monday for an LLC to get going (if it does). Patience.

[Opal storm]

Nothing out there now, guys. Wait until Sunday/Monday for an LLC to get going (if it does). Patience.

That's one thing that's really been lacking since we were spoiled by 2005.

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Convection increasing?? I'm not seeing anything like that.

full zoom between Jamaica and Honduras.. 20 images

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

visible http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

There's nothing out there yet, not even a hint of formation. It's reaching to be stating that any type of formation is happening and that any convection (minimal at best) is the beginning of any TC formation.

We will have a storm, but try as some might you cannot will a storm to form. Models initiating formation is not enough to jump on this thing.

[gatorcane]

I would be paying attention to the global models which forecast a potent CV system that is forecasted to be a westrunner across the Atlantic....

I know they are 200+ hours out but they are starting to come into more agreement and that starts to peak my interest....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thread 2 on puffy clouds coming soon!!!

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Convection increasing?? I'm not seeing anything like that.

full zoom between Jamaica and Honduras.. 20 images

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

visible http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

There's nothing out there yet, not even a hint of formation. It's reaching to be stating that any type of formation is happening and that any convection (minimal at best) is the beginning of any TC formation.




We will have a storm, but try as some might you cannot will a storm to form. Models initiating formation is not enough to jump on this thing.

you just missing the point

[Wx_Warrior]

DESTRUCT...Time to go to Delta Downs for some OTB!!!!!

[Frank P]

well the closer we get to the peak of the season, the greater probability that one of these models might actually come to fruition... because they have been sucking eggs to date...

I can sum up this season best by saying ... we have been prematurely speculating on much to do about nothing... which is OK by me...

If nothing cranks up during the last two weeks of Aug or the first two weeks of Sept I'd be really surprised, if not shocked... so as wxman says for all you cyclone junkies who need that tropical storm fix (and we have quite a few of em based on all the posting and pages and pages of comments on a few thunderstorms in the Caribbean), show some patience, the season should beginning soon

[srainhoutx]

Nothing out there now, guys. Wait until Sunday/Monday for an LLC to get going (if it does). Patience.

Thanks wxman57. A little sanity goes a long way. Will be watching.

[Aric Dunn]

well the closer we get to the peak of the season, the greater probability that one of these models might actually come to fruition... because they have been sucking eggs to date...

I can sum up this season best by saying ... we have been prematurely speculating on much to do about nothing... which is OK by me...

If nothing cranks up during the last two weeks of Aug or the first two weeks of Sept I'd be really surprised, if not shocked... so as wxman says for all you cyclone junkies who need that tropical storm fix (and we have quite a few of em based on all the posting and pages and pages of comments on a few thunderstorms in the Caribbean), show some patience, the season should beginning soon

this is patients !

[x-y-no]

More puffy cloud discussion in thread 2:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96858