System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#481 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:22 pm

I guess last post belongs in GFS African wave thread...
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Re:

#482 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:24 pm

dwg71 wrote:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Convection increasing?? I'm not seeing anything like that.



full zoom between Jamaica and Honduras.. 20 images

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

visible http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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Re:

#483 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:25 pm

Coredesat wrote:That isn't a TC in the GOM on that model image. It's a weak low pressure area. The only TC there is NE of the islands, and even then, this is a 192 hr image, which is unreliable at best.

This wave has pretty much gone poof. There was no low pressure area and few of the models were developing anything here.


For the low thread count graphics, showing a low like that on a global model with 35 knot winds at 850 mb, that is probably suggesting a TD or minimum TS, IMHO
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#484 Postby Sjones » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:25 pm

I can see the broad circulation, convection is on the increase.
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#485 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:26 pm

Honestly as bad as I would like to see something spin up, there isn't anything the eye can see that's out there. But Mets and models are both hinting at potential development so that's enough to go on right there.
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#486 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:28 pm

Nothing out there now, guys. Wait until Sunday/Monday for an LLC to get going (if it does). Patience.
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#487 Postby Opal storm » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Nothing out there now, guys. Wait until Sunday/Monday for an LLC to get going (if it does). Patience.
That's one thing that's really been lacking since we were spoiled by 2005.
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Re: Re:

#488 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
dwg71 wrote:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Convection increasing?? I'm not seeing anything like that.



full zoom between Jamaica and Honduras.. 20 images

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

visible http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


There's nothing out there yet, not even a hint of formation. It's reaching to be stating that any type of formation is happening and that any convection (minimal at best) is the beginning of any TC formation.

We will have a storm, but try as some might you cannot will a storm to form. Models initiating formation is not enough to jump on this thing.
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#489 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:31 pm

I would be paying attention to the global models which forecast a potent CV system that is forecasted to be a westrunner across the Atlantic....

I know they are 200+ hours out but they are starting to come into more agreement and that starts to peak my interest....
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#490 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:32 pm

Thread 2 on puffy clouds coming soon!!!
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Re: Re:

#491 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:35 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
dwg71 wrote:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Convection increasing?? I'm not seeing anything like that.



full zoom between Jamaica and Honduras.. 20 images

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

visible http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


There's nothing out there yet, not even a hint of formation. It's reaching to be stating that any type of formation is happening and that any convection (minimal at best) is the beginning of any TC formation.




We will have a storm, but try as some might you cannot will a storm to form. Models initiating formation is not enough to jump on this thing.



you just missing the point
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#492 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:37 pm

DESTRUCT...Time to go to Delta Downs for some OTB!!!!!
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#493 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:39 pm

well the closer we get to the peak of the season, the greater probability that one of these models might actually come to fruition... because they have been sucking eggs to date...

I can sum up this season best by saying ... we have been prematurely speculating on much to do about nothing... which is OK by me...

If nothing cranks up during the last two weeks of Aug or the first two weeks of Sept I'd be really surprised, if not shocked... so as wxman says for all you cyclone junkies who need that tropical storm fix (and we have quite a few of em based on all the posting and pages and pages of comments on a few thunderstorms in the Caribbean), show some patience, the season should beginning soon
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#494 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:Nothing out there now, guys. Wait until Sunday/Monday for an LLC to get going (if it does). Patience.


Thanks wxman57. A little sanity goes a long way. Will be watching.
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Re: System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

#495 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:40 pm

Frank P wrote:well the closer we get to the peak of the season, the greater probability that one of these models might actually come to fruition... because they have been sucking eggs to date...

I can sum up this season best by saying ... we have been prematurely speculating on much to do about nothing... which is OK by me...

If nothing cranks up during the last two weeks of Aug or the first two weeks of Sept I'd be really surprised, if not shocked... so as wxman says for all you cyclone junkies who need that tropical storm fix (and we have quite a few of em based on all the posting and pages and pages of comments on a few thunderstorms in the Caribbean), show some patience, the season should beginning soon



this is patients !
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#496 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:42 pm

More puffy cloud discussion in thread 2:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96858
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