GFS continues to develop African wave

[sevenleft]

The part that should be scaring people (not really, but it does lend more weight to the situation) is that the Euro is doing it too.

[Opal storm]

I think the GFS is really on to something developing it the next few days, too much consistency. But beyond that (about 90 hrs), it's anybody's guess.

[cycloneye]

102 hours

It has passed 40w.

[cheezyWXguy]

90 hours

1003 mbs

The progress is a tiny bit faster than the 12z run, but very similar.

Its actually even faster, as the at is the diurnal max pressure(weakest)...the 84hr takes it down to 1000mb, which is the diurnal min pressure

[Meso]

There seems to be more of a trough in the latest run..Might see another out to see or upper east coast prediction from the GFS this time,don't know if it will be as far south as previous run.. Nevermind The ridge builds back really quickly

[storms in NC]

102 hours

It has passed 40w.

Staying at 1004 mb

[brunota2003]

I'll take a guess that this run of the GFS ends with the system going between Bermuda and the East Coast, dont hammer me for it, just an uneducated guess to entertain myself with.

[cycloneye]

114 hours

[miamicanes177]

maybe this bad boy will get in the caribbean and rocket power to category 5

[ekal]

There seems to be more of a trough in the latest run..Might see another out to see or upper east coast prediction from the GFS this time,don't know if it will be as far south as previous run

Definite trof in the 500mb pattern there. May lift out by the time the GFS cyclone reaches the weakness.

[Cyclone1]

maybe this bad boy will get in the caribbean and rocket power to category 5

Uh, I really really hope not.

[windstorm99]

The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.

[Opal storm]

The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.

I wouldn't worry about that so early, not only is it well over a week away from the US (IF it even comes this way) but it hasn't even developed yet. The models will change a million times.

[sevenleft]

The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.

Give it another 140 hours and it's probably going to take it into the United States.

[cycloneye]

126 hours

Getting closer to the Lesser Antilles.

[windstorm99]

The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.

I wouldn't worry about that so early, not only is it well over a week away from the US (IF it even comes this way) but it hasn't even developed yet.

Iam sorry but with this kind of model agreement its cause to keep a tab on things out in the eastern atlantic.

What really got my attention was the fact that the ECMWF now has to.

[cycloneye]

138 hours

[ekal]

The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.

I wouldn't worry about that so early, not only is it well over a week away from the US (IF it even comes this way) but it hasn't even developed yet.

Iam sorry but with this kind of model agreement its cause to keep a tab on things out in the eastern atlantic.

What really got my attention was the fact that the ECMWF now has to.

It is a curiosity to me why all the models are so intent on this particular system developing. IR really does not show the wave/low pressure system to be very impressive, with most of the convection confined to the southern portion of the system in the ITCZ, where moisture is more plentiful. We will see if this wave behaves differently from the others when it emerges.

Honestly, though, I can't recall so many of the models latching onto a wave before it even emerges Africa.

[storms in NC]

138 hours

These run are keeping it just to the right of the Islands

[windstorm99]

Ridge right no top at150hrs