GFS continues to develop African wave
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
I think the GFS is really on to something developing it the next few days, too much consistency. But beyond that (about 90 hrs), it's anybody's guess.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
x-y-no wrote:
The progress is a tiny bit faster than the 12z run, but very similar.
Its actually even faster, as the at is the diurnal max pressure(weakest)...the 84hr takes it down to 1000mb, which is the diurnal min pressure
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- Meso
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There seems to be more of a trough in the latest run..Might see another out to see or upper east coast prediction from the GFS this time,don't know if it will be as far south as previous run.. Nevermind
The ridge builds back really quickly

Last edited by Meso on Fri Aug 10, 2007 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
I'll take a guess that this run of the GFS ends with the system going between Bermuda and the East Coast, dont hammer me for it, just an uneducated guess to entertain myself with.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
maybe this bad boy will get in the caribbean and rocket power to category 5
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Re:
Meso wrote:There seems to be more of a trough in the latest run..Might see another out to see or upper east coast prediction from the GFS this time,don't know if it will be as far south as previous run
Definite trof in the 500mb pattern there. May lift out by the time the GFS cyclone reaches the weakness.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
miamicanes177 wrote:maybe this bad boy will get in the caribbean and rocket power to category 5
Uh, I really really hope not.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
I wouldn't worry about that so early, not only is it well over a week away from the US (IF it even comes this way) but it hasn't even developed yet. The models will change a million times.windstorm99 wrote:The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
Give it another 140 hours and it's probably going to take it into the United States.windstorm99 wrote:The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
Opal storm wrote:I wouldn't worry about that so early, not only is it well over a week away from the US (IF it even comes this way) but it hasn't even developed yet.windstorm99 wrote:The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.
Iam sorry but with this kind of model agreement its cause to keep a tab on things out in the eastern atlantic.
What really got my attention was the fact that the ECMWF now has to.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
windstorm99 wrote:Opal storm wrote:I wouldn't worry about that so early, not only is it well over a week away from the US (IF it even comes this way) but it hasn't even developed yet.windstorm99 wrote:The main thing to take here is most models take this feature in the general direction of the united states.
Iam sorry but with this kind of model agreement its cause to keep a tab on things out in the eastern atlantic.
What really got my attention was the fact that the ECMWF now has to.
It is a curiosity to me why all the models are so intent on this particular system developing. IR really does not show the wave/low pressure system to be very impressive, with most of the convection confined to the southern portion of the system in the ITCZ, where moisture is more plentiful. We will see if this wave behaves differently from the others when it emerges.
Honestly, though, I can't recall so many of the models latching onto a wave before it even emerges Africa.
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Re: GFS continues to show development=18z GFS run rolling in
Ridge right no top at150hrs
Last edited by windstorm99 on Fri Aug 10, 2007 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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