GFS continues to develop African wave

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Blown Away
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#421 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:46 pm

This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are! :lol:
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#422 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:46 pm

48-72 hours it will be an invest
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#423 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:47 pm

Blown_away wrote:This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are! :lol:



22 now :wink: :lol:
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#424 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:50 pm

Blown_away wrote:This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are! :lol:


And this is only the GFS model thread for it.There are other two threads about the wave.
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#425 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:53 pm

Image
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#426 Postby Jinkers » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:54 pm

LOL, we all need something to track... :roll:
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#427 Postby vaffie » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:56 pm

If this turns out to be the monster that the UKMET, Canadian, GFS, and Euro models are depicting, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 or more threads devoted to it at the end of the day.
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#428 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:57 pm

Blown_away wrote:This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are! :lol:


Well, we had 150 pages with a blob. At least this looks like a player.

:D :wink:
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#429 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:00 pm

vaffie wrote:If this turns out to be the monster that the UKMET, Canadian, GFS, and Euro models are depicting, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 or more threads devoted to it at the end of the day.


Well not quite that many,because,then as a invest is up,a main thread will be made with a limit of 25 pages.After that,if it is a TD,then a new thread is made in the active storms forum.
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#430 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:05 pm

It looks pretty good right now... it seems to be taking forever to leave Africa though.

PLEASE DEVELOP. I'm bored!
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#431 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:29 pm

Personally, I think it is too early to discern possible paths. We should remain patient - I think this system can develop, but I think organization could occur at a slower pace than indicated by the GFS and Euro runs. Obs suggest the wave axis has moved offshore over the past hour, so we have not seen the possible adverse effects from the stable mid-level thermodynamics. The pace of development and the system's forward motion could affect its path down the road - we should closely monitor the low-level steering currents and 500 mbar pattern (North America and Atlantic) over the next several days. The long-range guidance should not be trusted at this point, IMO.

On another note, could the wave be classified in the next sfc analysis? I think waves are added to the TAFB when they enter the tropical Atlantic.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: GFS develops wave about to emerge Coast of Africa

#432 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:32 pm

The storm will tell us what conditions are like. It will either beat the adverse conditions or succumb to them. The best indicator is the storm itself...
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Re: GFS develops wave=00z GFS run to start rolling at 11:30 PM

#433 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:10 pm

This baby will have a tough road ahead of it.
I would not get too excited just yet.
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Re: GFS develops wave=00z GFS run to start rolling at 11:30 PM

#434 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:13 pm

Stormcenter wrote:This baby will have a tough road ahead of it.
I would not get too excited just yet.
Good. Like I said in a prevoius post these "systems" have a different effect on me after the past few years. I don't get "excited" anymore. I watch and wait. Hopefully this year is quiet.
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Re: GFS develops wave=00z GFS run to start rolling at 11:30 PM

#435 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:14 pm

Stormcenter wrote:This baby will have a tough road ahead of it.
I would not get too excited just yet.


elaborate?
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Re: GFS develops wave=00z GFS run to start rolling at 11:30 PM

#436 Postby weatherguru18 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:28 pm

Well the GFS has shown Charleston, Biloxi, and now Houston as the landfalling points. Tomorrow I'm gonna guess Mobile. Anybody?
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Re: GFS develops African wave=00z GFS run is rolling in

#437 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:30 pm

There isn't even a low to track. I guess when there is I may be concerned
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#438 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:30 pm

It will be a tough road ahead..like it is for every system. Many of us are here because it is an amazing set of factors that occur for a hurricane to develop. Clearly there have been issues of some sort to this point..so it's not given this will be a hurricane or were it will go of course..

That being said I think most would agree we are looking a Dean to be..

Sanibel made a good point.. if it does not develop something is up..lol Time recalibrate the models at least.. :lol:
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Re: GFS develops African wave=00z GFS run is rolling in

#439 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:30 pm

The 00z run of GFS is now starting to come out.Stay tuned here to see the different hours data and proyections.
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Re: GFS develops African wave=00z GFS run is rolling in

#440 Postby ekal » Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:33 pm

Initializes a 1008mb low along the coast, much like the last run.

Not sure if that low is quite at the surface, yet. Wind is still NNW at Dakar, and it should have turned around a bit by now if a low pressure system is indeed off the coast.
Last edited by ekal on Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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