GFS continues to develop African wave

[Blown Away]

This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are!

[astrosbaseball22]

48-72 hours it will be an invest

[astrosbaseball22]

This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are!

22 now

[cycloneye]

This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are!

And this is only the GFS model thread for it.There are other two threads about the wave.

[windstorm99]

[Jinkers]

LOL, we all need something to track...

[vaffie]

If this turns out to be the monster that the UKMET, Canadian, GFS, and Euro models are depicting, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 or more threads devoted to it at the end of the day.

[Trader Ron]

This has to be a Storm2k record, 21 pages on a wave that isn't even in the Atlantic. What a pathetic bunch we are!

Well, we had 150 pages with a blob. At least this looks like a player.

[cycloneye]

If this turns out to be the monster that the UKMET, Canadian, GFS, and Euro models are depicting, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 or more threads devoted to it at the end of the day.

Well not quite that many,because,then as a invest is up,a main thread will be made with a limit of 25 pages.After that,if it is a TD,then a new thread is made in the active storms forum.

[Brent]

It looks pretty good right now... it seems to be taking forever to leave Africa though.

PLEASE DEVELOP. I'm bored!

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think it is too early to discern possible paths. We should remain patient - I think this system can develop, but I think organization could occur at a slower pace than indicated by the GFS and Euro runs. Obs suggest the wave axis has moved offshore over the past hour, so we have not seen the possible adverse effects from the stable mid-level thermodynamics. The pace of development and the system's forward motion could affect its path down the road - we should closely monitor the low-level steering currents and 500 mbar pattern (North America and Atlantic) over the next several days. The long-range guidance should not be trusted at this point, IMO.

On another note, could the wave be classified in the next sfc analysis? I think waves are added to the TAFB when they enter the tropical Atlantic.

[Sanibel]

The storm will tell us what conditions are like. It will either beat the adverse conditions or succumb to them. The best indicator is the storm itself...

[Stormcenter]

This baby will have a tough road ahead of it.
I would not get too excited just yet.

[Rainband]

This baby will have a tough road ahead of it.
I would not get too excited just yet.

Good. Like I said in a prevoius post these "systems" have a different effect on me after the past few years. I don't get "excited" anymore. I watch and wait. Hopefully this year is quiet.

[ConvergenceZone]

This baby will have a tough road ahead of it.
I would not get too excited just yet.

elaborate?

[weatherguru18]

Well the GFS has shown Charleston, Biloxi, and now Houston as the landfalling points. Tomorrow I'm gonna guess Mobile. Anybody?

[Rainband]

There isn't even a low to track. I guess when there is I may be concerned

[Aquawind]

It will be a tough road ahead..like it is for every system. Many of us are here because it is an amazing set of factors that occur for a hurricane to develop. Clearly there have been issues of some sort to this point..so it's not given this will be a hurricane or were it will go of course..

That being said I think most would agree we are looking a Dean to be..

Sanibel made a good point.. if it does not develop something is up..lol Time recalibrate the models at least..

[cycloneye]

The 00z run of GFS is now starting to come out.Stay tuned here to see the different hours data and proyections.

[ekal]

Initializes a 1008mb low along the coast, much like the last run.

Not sure if that low is quite at the surface, yet. Wind is still NNW at Dakar, and it should have turned around a bit by now if a low pressure system is indeed off the coast.